Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA guided FY28 revenue growth near 70% and Huang said demand is much greater than that. The ceiling is memory supply, not demand.</li>
<li>The limit is physical. HBM needs roughly 3x the wafer area of DDR5 per gigabyte, and is about 90% of the silicon area in a two-GPU package.</li>
<li>What lifts NVIDIA's ceiling is how they allocate wafers between HBM and commodity parts, not the price print.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA guided FY28 revenue growth near 70% and Huang said demand is much greater than that. The ceiling is memory supply, not demand.
The limit is physical. HBM needs roughly 3x the wafer area of DDR5 per gigabyte, and is about 90% of the silicon area in a two-GPU package.
What lifts NVIDIA's ceiling is how they allocate wafers between HBM and commodity parts, not the price print.


NVIDIA Capped Its Growth at 70% Because HBM Takes 3x the Silicon of Ordinary Memory

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Three 2026 themes: (i) Continued AI spending boom, moats and monopolies to thrive, (ii) Recently commenced commodity super-cycle, especially in copper, (iii) Continued defense spending boom amid accelerating geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>These themes are well-discussed over the past year, but recent concerns about their longevity (especially AI spending) have derated the beneficiary stocks. We think it's time to re-focus on them.</li>
<li>Our top picks: TSMC (the monopoly AI enabler), Zijin Mining (the gold and copper giant, benefitting from two super cycles) and Hanwha Aerospace (the biggest beneficiary of defense spending boom).</li>
</ul>


Three 2026 themes: (i) Continued AI spending boom, moats and monopolies to thrive, (ii) Recently commenced commodity super-cycle, especially in copper, (iii) Continued defense spending boom amid accelerating geopolitical tensions.
These themes are well-discussed over the past year, but recent concerns about their longevity (especially AI spending) have derated the beneficiary stocks. We think it's time to re-focus on them.
Our top picks: TSMC (the monopoly AI enabler), Zijin Mining (the gold and copper giant, benefitting from two super cycles) and Hanwha Aerospace (the biggest beneficiary of defense spending boom).


2026 High Conviction: Three Themes, Three Top Picks

<ul>
<li>As the earnings season draws to a close, we look at Asian markets'/sectors' EPS estimate progression during the reporting season and earlier. Specifically, we search for upward or downward inflections.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan had the strongest EPS upgrades during this reporting season, despite the trade uncertainties. Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia also had decent upgrades. HK/China and India continue to be downgraded.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese technology, Korean industrials, HK Technology Services had strong upgrades. So did Singapore and Philippines financials, and Thailand Communications - the latter two with a long upgrade history.</li>
</ul>


As the earnings season draws to a close, we look at Asian markets'/sectors' EPS estimate progression during the reporting season and earlier. Specifically, we search for upward or downward inflections.
Korea and Taiwan had the strongest EPS upgrades during this reporting season, despite the trade uncertainties. Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia also had decent upgrades. HK/China and India continue to be downgraded.
Korean and Taiwanese technology, Korean industrials, HK Technology Services had strong upgrades. So did Singapore and Philippines financials, and Thailand Communications - the latter two with a long upgrade history.


Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.</li><li><p>I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.</p></li><li><p>For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future</p></li></ul><div data-component-name="DigestPostEmbed"><a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/chinese-evs-and-the-lagging-edge" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></div>

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.</li>
<li>We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.</li>
<li>1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.
We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.
1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?


Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

NVIDIA Capped Its Growth at 70% Because HBM Takes 3x the Silicon of Ordinary Memory

NVIDIA guided FY28 revenue growth near 70% and Huang said demand is much greater than that. The ceiling is memory supply, not demand.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2026 High Conviction: Three Themes, Three Top Picks

2026 began with a bang & so did our High Conviction ideas. In less than 2 weeks TSMC is up 9.7%, Zijin Mining up 8.4% & Hanwha Aerospace a...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?

Asian markets' EPS est show strong upgrades in Korea and Taiwan, while HK/CN & India continue to be downgraded. KR & TW Tech, HK Tech Services, SG...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point? We see this lead time cut news short term positive but long term negative to AI GPU supply chain...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NVIDIA Capped Its Growth at 70% Because HBM Takes 3x the Silicon of Ordinary Memory

NVIDIA guided FY28 revenue growth near 70% and Huang said demand is much greater than that. The ceiling is memory supply, not demand.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2026 High Conviction: Three Themes, Three Top Picks

2026 began with a bang & so did our High Conviction ideas. In less than 2 weeks TSMC is up 9.7%, Zijin Mining up 8.4% & Hanwha Aerospace a...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?

​Asian markets' EPS est show strong upgrades in Korea and Taiwan, while HK/CN & India continue to be downgraded. KR & TW Tech, HK Tech Services, SG...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point? We see this lead time cut news short term positive but long term negative to AI GPU supply chain...

Andrew Lu

Asian markets' EPS est show strong upgrades in Korea and Taiwan, while HK/CN & India continue to be downgraded. KR & TW Tech, HK Tech Services, SG...