Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, has requested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s production output reach a 50:50 ratio between the U.S. and Taiwan.</li>
<li>By contrast, TSMC’s fab construction also requires strong supplier coordination, and in the case of its U.S. fabs, there are numerous regulatory hurdles to overcome.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>’s share price in Hong Kong has surged this year (+209.14%), significantly outperforming TSMC’s share price increase (+28.15%).</li>
</ul>


The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, has requested that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s production output reach a 50:50 ratio between the U.S. and Taiwan.
By contrast, TSMC’s fab construction also requires strong supplier coordination, and in the case of its U.S. fabs, there are numerous regulatory hurdles to overcome.
Meanwhile, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)’s share price in Hong Kong has surged this year (+209.14%), significantly outperforming TSMC’s share price increase (+28.15%).


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC' Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>OpenAI, Samsung &amp; SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop</li>
<li>MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients</li>
<li>TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node </li>
</ul>


OpenAI, Samsung &amp; SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop
MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients
TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>USG 1:1 domestic / import ratio for semi manufacturing not a clear positive for Intel. Intel needs a 14A node very quickly. But it’s positive to TSMC, increase pricing power.</li>
<li>The 1:1 rule is potentially positive for Intel and Samsung but only if they fix yield problems and offer complete design and IP tools to their customers. Long road ahead.</li>
<li>TSMC could increase US Capex and lower Taiwan Capex. But TSMC plans to make 30% of its advanced chips in the US from 2027. Capex increase would be mild.</li>
</ul>


USG 1:1 domestic / import ratio for semi manufacturing not a clear positive for Intel. Intel needs a 14A node very quickly. But it’s positive to TSMC, increase pricing power.
The 1:1 rule is potentially positive for Intel and Samsung but only if they fix yield problems and offer complete design and IP tools to their customers. Long road ahead.
TSMC could increase US Capex and lower Taiwan Capex. But TSMC plans to make 30% of its advanced chips in the US from 2027. Capex increase would be mild.


USG 1:1 Rule on Semi Manufacturing: Not a Clear Positive to Intel but Clearly Positive to TSMC

<ul>
<li>Latest Signals Continue to Indicate N2 Is Emerging as TSMC’s Blockbuster Node</li>
<li>N2 Commercialization Timing Aligns With Major AI HPC Platform Roadmaps</li>
<li>TSMC Market Share Over 70%... Could N2 Drive This Number Even Higher? Maintain Our Structural Long Rating for TSMC</li>
</ul>


Latest Signals Continue to Indicate N2 Is Emerging as TSMC’s Blockbuster Node
N2 Commercialization Timing Aligns With Major AI HPC Platform Roadmaps
TSMC Market Share Over 70%... Could N2 Drive This Number Even Higher? Maintain Our Structural Long Rating for TSMC


TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +28.3 Premium; Historically Extreme Level, Can Short the ADR Premium</li>
<li>UMC: +3.3% Premium; Historically Extreme Level, Short the ADR Premium </li>
<li>CHT: -0.7% Discount; Near Lower Bound, Consider Going Long the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +28.3 Premium; Historically Extreme Level, Can Short the ADR Premium
UMC: +3.3% Premium; Historically Extreme Level, Short the ADR Premium 
CHT: -0.7% Discount; Near Lower Bound, Consider Going Long the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads Higher After Taiwan Market Holiday

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC' Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

US Secretary of Commerce pushes for equal production output between US and Taiwan for Taiwan Semiconductor, while Semiconductor Manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix are forming alliances in the memory industry, while MediaTek faces delays in its ASIC ambitions and TSMC's N2 node is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

USG 1:1 Rule on Semi Manufacturing: Not a Clear Positive to Intel but Clearly Positive to TSMC

USG 1:1 ratio not clear win for Intel, needs 14A node fast. Positive for TSMC, boost pricing power. TSMC may up US Capex, lower Taiwan Capex, make...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node

TSMC's N2 node is poised to be a game-changer in the AI HPC market, potentially increasing their market share beyond 70%.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads Higher After Taiwan Market Holiday

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC' Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

​US Secretary of Commerce pushes for equal production output between US and Taiwan for Taiwan Semiconductor, while Semiconductor Manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix are forming alliances in the memory industry, while MediaTek faces delays in its ASIC ambitions and TSMC's N2 node is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

USG 1:1 Rule on Semi Manufacturing: Not a Clear Positive to Intel but Clearly Positive to TSMC

​USG 1:1 ratio not clear win for Intel, needs 14A node fast. Positive for TSMC, boost pricing power. TSMC may up US Capex, lower Taiwan Capex, make...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node

​TSMC's N2 node is poised to be a game-changer in the AI HPC market, potentially increasing their market share beyond 70%.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads Higher After Taiwan Market Holiday

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US Secretary of Commerce pushes for equal production output between US and Taiwan for Taiwan Semiconductor, while Semiconductor Manufacturing...

USG 1:1 ratio not clear win for Intel, needs 14A node fast. Positive for TSMC, boost pricing power. TSMC may up US Capex, lower Taiwan Capex, make...

TSMC's N2 node is poised to be a game-changer in the AI HPC market, potentially increasing their market share beyond 70%.