Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Trump’s pick for CDC director, former Congressman Dave Weldon, had his nomination withdrawn just hours before the Senate committee hearing.</li><li>Weldon lacked sufficient support from Republicans to clear the committee, as he adhered to his anti-vaccine views more strongly than RFK Jr.</li><li>While vaccine makers (PFE, MRNA, BNTX, NVAX) rebounded briefly on the news, other federal actions kept the space under pressure, including the termination of NIH grants for research on vaccine hesitancy and uptake. </li></ul>

Trump’s pick for CDC director, former Congressman Dave Weldon, had his nomination withdrawn just hours before the Senate committee hearing.Weldon lacked sufficient support from Republicans to clear the committee, as he adhered to his anti-vaccine views more strongly than RFK Jr.While vaccine makers (PFE, MRNA, BNTX, NVAX) rebounded briefly on the news, other federal actions kept the space under pressure, including the termination of NIH grants for research on vaccine hesitancy and uptake. 

Biopharma Week in Review - March 17, 2025

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.</li>
<li>With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation</li>
<li>If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.
With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation
If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670


Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In November 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alteogen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15886:1" rel="noopener">Alteogen Inc (196170 KS)</a> entered into an exclusive license agreement with Daiichi Sankyo for an upfront payment of $20M (KRW28B).</li>
<li>With increasing number of players developing ADC drugs mainly targeting various cancers, we can expect more big-ticket licensing deals for ALT-B4, going ahead.</li>
<li>On February 4, Alteogen has raised ~KRW155B through redeemable convertible preference shares. Over the last few months, Alteogen shares had a roller coaster ride due to fund raising rumors.</li>
</ul>


In November 2024, Alteogen Inc (196170 KS) entered into an exclusive license agreement with Daiichi Sankyo for an upfront payment of $20M (KRW28B).
With increasing number of players developing ADC drugs mainly targeting various cancers, we can expect more big-ticket licensing deals for ALT-B4, going ahead.
On February 4, Alteogen has raised ~KRW155B through redeemable convertible preference shares. Over the last few months, Alteogen shares had a roller coaster ride due to fund raising rumors.


Alteogen (196170 KS): More ALT-B4 Licensing Deal to Follow; Fund Raise Wipes Off Uncertainty

Adtalem Global Education  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.</li>
<li>We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."</li>
<li>Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.</li>
</ul>


As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.
We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."
Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.


S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

<ul>
<li>In its January 2025 meeting, EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended eight medicines for approval, including four innovative, three biosimilars, and one generic drugs.</li>
<li>The committee has also recommended extensions of indication for eight medicines that are already authorized in the EU.</li>
<li>Marketing applications for two medicines were withdrawn. Among them, withdrawal of Daiichi Sankyo’s datopotamab deruxtecan for non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer is noteworthy.</li>
</ul>


In its January 2025 meeting, EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended eight medicines for approval, including four innovative, three biosimilars, and one generic drugs.
The committee has also recommended extensions of indication for eight medicines that are already authorized in the EU.
Marketing applications for two medicines were withdrawn. Among them, withdrawal of Daiichi Sankyo’s datopotamab deruxtecan for non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer is noteworthy.


CHMP Meeting Update: Eight New Medicines Recommended For Approval

United States

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a global biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical and nutritional products. Bristol-Myers Squibb products and experimental therapies address cancer, heart disease, HIV/AIDS, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, hepatitis, organ transplant  rejection, and psychiatric disorders.

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Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US)

Biopharma Week in Review - March 17, 2025

Trump’s pick for CDC director, former Congressman Dave Weldon, had his nomination withdrawn just hours before the Senate committee hearing.

Water Tower Research

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

Alteogen (196170 KS): More ALT-B4 Licensing Deal to Follow; Fund Raise Wipes Off Uncertainty

Alteogen secures $20M upfront payment in exclusive license deal with Daiichi Sankyo for using ALT-B4 in developing SC version of blockbuster ADC...

Tina Banerjee

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

CHMP Meeting Update: Eight New Medicines Recommended For Approval

In its January 2025 meeting, CHMP recommended 8 drugs for approval, including 4 innovative, 3 biosimilars, and 1 generic drugs. The committee has...

Tina Banerjee

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Biopharma Week in Review - March 17, 2025

Trump’s pick for CDC director, former Congressman Dave Weldon, had his nomination withdrawn just hours before the Senate committee hearing.

Water Tower Research

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

Alteogen (196170 KS): More ALT-B4 Licensing Deal to Follow; Fund Raise Wipes Off Uncertainty

​Alteogen secures $20M upfront payment in exclusive license deal with Daiichi Sankyo for using ALT-B4 in developing SC version of blockbuster ADC...

Tina Banerjee

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

CHMP Meeting Update: Eight New Medicines Recommended For Approval

In its January 2025 meeting, CHMP recommended 8 drugs for approval, including 4 innovative, 3 biosimilars, and 1 generic drugs. The committee has...

Tina Banerjee

Alteogen secures $20M upfront payment in exclusive license deal with Daiichi Sankyo for using ALT-B4 in developing SC version of blockbuster ADC...