External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alphabet announced 3Q25 results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to US$102.3bn, 3% ahead of consensus estimate; operating income excluding US$3.5bn European Commission fine was up by 22% YoY to US$34.7bn, 8% ahead of consensus estimate, primarily thanks to the enhanced overall efficiency and robust earnings growth of Google Cloud (+85% YoY).</li><li>Management raised FY25 capex guidance to US$91-93bn (previously: US$85bn), up by 73%-77% YoY.</li><li>The AI investments gradually bear fruit in both core search (&gt;2bn AI Overviews users) and cloud businesses (cloud backlog + 82% YoY to US$155bn), driving acceleration in revenue growth. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Alphabet announced 3Q25 results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to US$102.3bn, 3% ahead of consensus estimate; operating income excluding US$3.5bn European Commission fine was up by 22% YoY to US$34.7bn, 8% ahead of consensus estimate, primarily thanks to the enhanced overall efficiency and robust earnings growth of Google Cloud (+85% YoY).Management raised FY25 capex guidance to US$91-93bn (previously: US$85bn), up by 73%-77% YoY.The AI investments gradually bear fruit in both core search (&gt;2bn AI Overviews users) and cloud businesses (cloud backlog + 82% YoY to US$155bn), driving acceleration in revenue growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alphabet (GOOG US) - 3Q25 Results Beat; Upbeat on AI and Cloud Business Momentum

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung and SK hynix are projecting $263 billion in combined net cash by year-end, intensifying pressure to move beyond 50% free-cash-flow payout targets.</li>
<li>Customer deposits and price floors underwrite new capacity, significantly improving demand visibility and weakening the traditional cycle-risk argument for holding massive excess cash.</li>
<li>While LTAs de-risk memory, capital demands remain high. Samsung’s foundry requires heavy investment, and both firms face potential supply-chain contingencies at their Chinese fabs.</li>
</ul>


Samsung and SK hynix are projecting $263 billion in combined net cash by year-end, intensifying pressure to move beyond 50% free-cash-flow payout targets.
Customer deposits and price floors underwrite new capacity, significantly improving demand visibility and weakening the traditional cycle-risk argument for holding massive excess cash.
While LTAs de-risk memory, capital demands remain high. Samsung’s foundry requires heavy investment, and both firms face potential supply-chain contingencies at their Chinese fabs.


[Memory Q2: Part 2] The Contract-Backed Cycle and the Cash Mountain

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.</li>
<li>MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.</li>
<li>Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.</li>
</ul>


First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.
MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.
Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.


Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

<ul>
<li>Google was the laggard, threatened by ChatGPT. A lot of ink was wasted predicting doomsday. Evidence of great management, Google stayed quiet and accelerated AI rollout.</li>
<li>Stellar 3Q25. Revenue up 16%, Operating Profit up 22%. 2025 Capex forecast was $75bn at the beginning of the year, now $92bn.</li>
<li>Consensus: not high. OP growth in 2026 15%, in 2027 13%. GOOG is trading at 25x 2026 EPS and 22x 2027. Not expensive.</li>
</ul>


Google was the laggard, threatened by ChatGPT. A lot of ink was wasted predicting doomsday. Evidence of great management, Google stayed quiet and accelerated AI rollout.
Stellar 3Q25. Revenue up 16%, Operating Profit up 22%. 2025 Capex forecast was $75bn at the beginning of the year, now $92bn.
Consensus: not high. OP growth in 2026 15%, in 2027 13%. GOOG is trading at 25x 2026 EPS and 22x 2027. Not expensive.


Google: Ad and Cloud Re-Accelerating. Large Impact of AI Tools. Stock Is Not Expensive.

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Oil price rise is pushing government bond yields higher globally, signaling the next inflationary wave has started</li>
<li>Precious Metals and miners rally despite higher yields and a strong Dollar- a positive divergence</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Oil price rise is pushing government bond yields higher globally, signaling the next inflationary wave has started
Precious Metals and miners rally despite higher yields and a strong Dollar- a positive divergence


United States

Alphabet, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOG US)

Alphabet (GOOG US) - 3Q25 Results Beat; Upbeat on AI and Cloud Business Momentum

We roll over our valuation window to FY26 and raise our target price to US$328.0 based on 30x FY26E PE (previous: US$221.0 based on 22x FY25E PE),...

CMB International

[Memory Q2: Part 2] The Contract-Backed Cycle and the Cash Mountain

As AI changes memory contracting via LTAs, the traditional cyclical excuse for hoarding cash is weakening among investors, especially as Samsung...

Mint Finance

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Google: Ad and Cloud Re-Accelerating. Large Impact of AI Tools. Stock Is Not Expensive.

Google stellar 3Q25 results with revenue up 16% YoY and Operating profit up 22%. Consensus predicts steady growth, with GOOG trading at reasonable...

Nicolas Baratte

Overview #70 - Choke Points

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent evidence & mkt reaction to a second inflationary...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alphabet (GOOG US) - 3Q25 Results Beat; Upbeat on AI and Cloud Business Momentum

We roll over our valuation window to FY26 and raise our target price to US$328.0 based on 30x FY26E PE (previous: US$221.0 based on 22x FY25E PE),...

CMB International

[Memory Q2: Part 2] The Contract-Backed Cycle and the Cash Mountain

As AI changes memory contracting via LTAs, the traditional cyclical excuse for hoarding cash is weakening among investors, especially as Samsung...

Mint Finance

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

​GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Google: Ad and Cloud Re-Accelerating. Large Impact of AI Tools. Stock Is Not Expensive.

​Google stellar 3Q25 results with revenue up 16% YoY and Operating profit up 22%. Consensus predicts steady growth, with GOOG trading at reasonable...

Nicolas Baratte

Overview #70 - Choke Points

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent evidence & mkt reaction to a second inflationary...

Rikki Malik

GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Google stellar 3Q25 results with revenue up 16% YoY and Operating profit up 22%. Consensus predicts steady growth, with GOOG trading at reasonable...