Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>'s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden (4062 JP)</a>'s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It'll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.</li>
<li>Palliser has a point. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem (051910 KS)</a> should pare down its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a> stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?</li>
<li>The latest twist in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.</li>
</ul>



Nidec (6594 JP)'s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The Ibiden (4062 JP)'s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It'll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.
Palliser has a point. LG Chem (051910 KS) should pare down its LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?
The latest twist in the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Nidec/Ibiden, LG Chem, Mayne Pharma, Jardine Matheson

<ul>
<li>I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Six new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">AUB  (AUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE (9956 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scsk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19996:1" rel="noopener">SCSK (9719 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainpad-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11499:1" rel="noopener">Brainpad (3655 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-riko-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14955:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-densetsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1530:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashimori-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13918:1" rel="noopener">Ashimori Industry (3526 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/restaurant-brands-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11891:1" rel="noopener">Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Six new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: AUB  (AUB AU), ANE (9956 HK), SCSK (9719 JP), Brainpad (3655 JP), Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP), and Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Humm Group (HUM AU), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ). 


Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SCSK Corp, AUB, Brainpad, ANE Cayman, Sumitomo Densetsu, Sumitomo Densetsu

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> is acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)</a> for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy</a> shares for each share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy (MNW NZ)</a> is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> due to increased index shares.</li>
<li>As a replacement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)</a>, there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.</li>
</ul>



Contact Energy (CEN NZ) is acquiring Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ) for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 Contact Energy shares for each share of Manawa Energy.

Manawa Energy (MNW NZ) is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for Contact Energy (CEN NZ) due to increased index shares.
As a replacement for Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ), there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.


Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez</a> plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO.</li>
<li>GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the company’s prior performance and future prospects.</li>
</ul>



Guzman Y Gomez plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO.
GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
In this note, we look at the company’s prior performance and future prospects.


Guzman Y Gomez IPO - The Positives - Network Growing, Sales Have Outpaced Network Growth

New Zealand

Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited operates fast food restaurant chains in New Zealand & Australia. The Company operates close to 300 stores which operate under the KFC, Pizza Hut and Starbucks restaurant names.

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Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

For the month of Oct 2025, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$33bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Nidec/Ibiden, LG Chem, Mayne Pharma, Jardine Matheson

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SCSK Corp, AUB, Brainpad, ANE Cayman, Sumitomo Densetsu, Sumitomo Densetsu

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

Manawa Energy is expected to stop trading after 7 July. There will be an increase in index shares for Contact Energy in global/local indices and...

Brian Freitas

Guzman Y Gomez IPO - The Positives - Network Growing, Sales Have Outpaced Network Growth

Guzman Y Gomez plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

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