New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tower (TWR) will report a strong, largely pre-released FY25 result on 27 November 2025, following updated guidance on 12 September 2025.</li><li>TWR expects underlying NPAT of NZ$100m–NZ$110m, supported by benign weather and large-event costs of only NZ$7m (well below the original NZ$50m allowance).</li><li>Management remains confident in +10% to +15% medium-term GWP growth, underpinned by Westpac.</li></ul>

Tower (TWR) will report a strong, largely pre-released FY25 result on 27 November 2025, following updated guidance on 12 September 2025.TWR expects underlying NPAT of NZ$100m–NZ$110m, supported by benign weather and large-event costs of only NZ$7m (well below the original NZ$50m allowance).Management remains confident in +10% to +15% medium-term GWP growth, underpinned by Westpac.

Tower Limited - FY25 Preview—Good Weather, Better Result

<ul><li>Tower (TWR) has announced a white-label distribution partnership with Westpac NZ (WBC) to underwrite house, contents, motor, and landlord policies from 1 July 2026.</li><li>Management indicates the partnership contributes to its FY27 GWP growth ambition of +10% to +15%.</li><li>Our blended target price lifts +4% to NZ$2.10, on a reduced discount to peers as quality grows.</li></ul>

Tower (TWR) has announced a white-label distribution partnership with Westpac NZ (WBC) to underwrite house, contents, motor, and landlord policies from 1 July 2026.Management indicates the partnership contributes to its FY27 GWP growth ambition of +10% to +15%.Our blended target price lifts +4% to NZ$2.10, on a reduced discount to peers as quality grows.

Tower Limited Westpac Partnership Supports FY27 Growth

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li><li>Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li><li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li></ul>

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

<ul><li>Whilst 2024 was one the costliest years globally for reinsurance companies, in NZ, unusually benign weather provided a favourable backdrop for the local general insurance industry.</li><li>This saw Tower (TWR: unrated) deliver a record FY24 result for the year to September 2024.</li><li>Looking toward 2025, we are expecting a more normalised period for the industry, with the insurance rate cycle cooling, greater focus on customer numbers, new products, investment returns coming off their peak, and an ongoing push to reduce costs. </li></ul>

Whilst 2024 was one the costliest years globally for reinsurance companies, in NZ, unusually benign weather provided a favourable backdrop for the local general insurance industry.This saw Tower (TWR: unrated) deliver a record FY24 result for the year to September 2024.Looking toward 2025, we are expecting a more normalised period for the industry, with the insurance rate cycle cooling, greater focus on customer numbers, new products, investment returns coming off their peak, and an ongoing push to reduce costs. 

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest - Edition 10 — Australasian Insurers Outperform

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a> will be deleted from the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index following its acquisition by Stonepeak Alps BidCo. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tower-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12173:1" rel="noopener">Tower Ltd (TWR NZ)</a> will be added to the index.</li>
<li>Passive NZX50 Index trackers will need to buy nearly 18m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tower-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12173:1" rel="noopener">Tower Ltd (TWR NZ)</a> - that is over 26 days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a lot of positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tower-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12173:1" rel="noopener">Tower Ltd (TWR NZ)</a> since Stonepeak's offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a>. There should be enough supply for the passive trackers. </li>
</ul>



Arvida (ARV NZ) will be deleted from the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index following its acquisition by Stonepeak Alps BidCo. Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) will be added to the index.
Passive NZX50 Index trackers will need to buy nearly 18m shares of Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) - that is over 26 days of ADV.
There has been a lot of positioning in Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) since Stonepeak's offer for Arvida (ARV NZ). There should be enough supply for the passive trackers. 


S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Tower (TWR) Replaces Arvida (ARV)

New Zealand

TOWER Limited provides risk insurance and wealth management products and services. The Company operates in general insurance, health & life insurance, and investments and funds management.

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Tower Ltd (TWR NZ)

Tower Limited - FY25 Preview—Good Weather, Better Result

Tower (TWR) will report a strong, largely pre-released FY25 result on 27 November 2025, following updated guidance on 12 September 2025.

Forsyth Barr

Tower Limited Westpac Partnership Supports FY27 Growth

Tower (TWR) has announced a white-label distribution partnership with Westpac NZ (WBC) to underwrite house, contents, motor, and landlord policies...

Forsyth Barr

Monday Delight: 06/10/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest - Edition 10 — Australasian Insurers Outperform

Whilst 2024 was one the costliest years globally for reinsurance companies, in NZ, unusually benign weather provided a favourable backdrop for the...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Tower (TWR) Replaces Arvida (ARV)

Tower replaces Arvida in the NZX50 Index at the close on 21 Oct. Passives will need to buy a lot in Tower but there has been a lot of positioning...

Brian Freitas

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