IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 2 April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> rejected a non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> at A$2.825 due to concerns about obtaining Australian and US regulatory approvals. </li>
<li>The Board’s claims are on shaky grounds. On 1 May, the AFR reported that Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles had no concerns with Hanwha’s privatisation bid. </li>
<li>The Board’s rejection is a clumsy attempt to negotiate better terms, such as a bump, ticking fees, or significant break fees. At the last close, the gross spread was 21.8%. </li>
</ul>


On 2 April, Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected a non-binding proposal from Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) at A$2.825 due to concerns about obtaining Australian and US regulatory approvals. 
The Board’s claims are on shaky grounds. On 1 May, the AFR reported that Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles had no concerns with Hanwha’s privatisation bid. 
The Board’s rejection is a clumsy attempt to negotiate better terms, such as a bump, ticking fees, or significant break fees. At the last close, the gross spread was 21.8%. 


Austal (ASB AU): Spurned Suitor, Hanwha Ocean, Gets a Vote of Confidence

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Recently, I surmised FIRB would approve <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)</a>/Hancock's bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure (AZS AU)</a>; but ding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal (ASB AU)</a> tilt. I'm batting 50%. </li>
<li>Whereas FIRB <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240430/pdf/0631wdsf6wd6kn.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gave the green light</a> for Azure this week; reportedly (no official ASX announcement as yet), the Aussie government is "not concerned" with Hanwha's acquisition. Austal gained 3% yesterday.</li>
<li>Even Austal didn't high hopes of securing Aussie approval. Presumably the US government is similarly onboard. This development also signals an expanding AUKUS security pact. </li>
</ul>


Recently, I surmised FIRB would approve Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Hancock's bid for Azure (AZS AU); but ding Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s Austal (ASB AU) tilt. I'm batting 50%. 
Whereas FIRB gave the green light for Azure this week; reportedly (no official ASX announcement as yet), the Aussie government is "not concerned" with Hanwha's acquisition. Austal gained 3% yesterday.
Even Austal didn't high hopes of securing Aussie approval. Presumably the US government is similarly onboard. This development also signals an expanding AUKUS security pact. 


The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government "Approves' Hanwha Ocean's Austal Bid

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

<ul>
<li>Murakami to tender stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> rejected (for now) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.</li>
<li>If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.</li>
</ul>


Murakami to tender stake in JSR Corp (4185 JP)? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.

Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected (for now) Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.
If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy Rakuten (4755 JP) on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

<ul>
<li>I tally 52 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals discussed on Smartkarma: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal  (ASB AU)</a>'s spurned Offer; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-world-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4600:1" rel="noopener">Best World (BEST SP)</a>'s Exit Offer; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6762:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Singapore (ISET SP)</a>'s parent Offer; and (maybe) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/langham-hospitality-inv-ss" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:760:1" rel="noopener">Langham Hospitality (1270 HK)</a>'s privatisation. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intellicentrics-global-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40901:1" rel="noopener">IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 52 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals discussed on Smartkarma: Austal  (ASB AU)'s spurned Offer; Best World (BEST SP)'s Exit Offer; Isetan Singapore (ISET SP)'s parent Offer; and (maybe) Langham Hospitality (1270 HK)'s privatisation. 
Key updates took place on: Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) and JSR Corp (4185 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Austal, Best World, Isetan Singapore, Langham Hospitality, Azure, Genex Power

South Korea

Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides floating structure construction, steel wire drying, commercial vessels, specialty vessels, gas carrier, tanker, containership, ro ro, bulk carrier, submarine, warship, auxiliaries, cruise ships, and ferries manufacturing services. Hanwha Ocean also offers onshore plants services.

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Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)

Austal (ASB AU): Spurned Suitor, Hanwha Ocean, Gets a Vote of Confidence

The Board’s rejection is based on shaky grounds and may be an attempt to negotiate better terms, such as a bump, ticking fees, or significant break...

Arun George

The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government "Approves' Hanwha Ocean's Austal Bid

I was wrong - Austal is not off-limits to a foreign takeover. Shares are 9.7% adrift of indicative terms. I'd be picking up shares here. The...

David Blennerhassett

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Austal, Best World, Isetan Singapore, Langham Hospitality, Azure, Genex Power

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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