HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2024 marks another year that our "Buy the worst" strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI's +17.9%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> is the only winner.</li>
<li>For 2025, the strategy will switch to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Props (101 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.</li>
</ul>


2024 marks another year that our "Buy the worst" strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI's +17.9%. Meituan (3690 HK) is the only winner.
For 2025, the strategy will switch to Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK), Hang Lung Props (101 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK).  
The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>EVs / Cover Story: Baidu-Geely joint EV failure reflects treacherousness of Chinese market</li><li>Central bank /Exclusive: Singapore’s central bank chief on crypto, AI and battling inflation</li><li>Outlook /: Four things to know about China’s 2025 economic outlook</li></ul>

EVs / Cover Story: Baidu-Geely joint EV failure reflects treacherousness of Chinese marketCentral bank /Exclusive: Singapore’s central bank chief on crypto, AI and battling inflationOutlook /: Four things to know about China’s 2025 economic outlook

CX Daily: Baidu-Geely Joint EV Failure Reflects Treacherousness of Chinese Market 

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Merck to establish new advanced materials center in Japan, expanding global presence in innovative materials science field.</li><li>Global smartphones market projected to see growth in 3Q 2024, suggesting sustained demand and continuous innovation in tech sector.</li><li>US government unveils quadrennial supply chain review to enhance national security and boost domestic production, with focus on semiconductor manufacturing.</li></ul>

Merck to establish new advanced materials center in Japan, expanding global presence in innovative materials science field.Global smartphones market projected to see growth in 3Q 2024, suggesting sustained demand and continuous innovation in tech sector.US government unveils quadrennial supply chain review to enhance national security and boost domestic production, with focus on semiconductor manufacturing.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Dec-2024): Merck opens new materials center in Japan.

<ul><li>PPP / Cover Story: How regulation shake-up cast public-private partnerships into limbo</li><li><p>Hong Kong /In Depth: Mainlanders flood Hong Kong talent program</p></li><li><p>Ji Yue /Baidu, Geely offer limited help to stalled EV brand</p></li></ul>

PPP / Cover Story: How regulation shake-up cast public-private partnerships into limboHong Kong /In Depth: Mainlanders flood Hong Kong talent programJi Yue /Baidu, Geely offer limited help to stalled EV brand

CX Daily: How Regulation Shake-Up Cast Public-Private Partnerships Into Limbo 

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November and 41% YoY for first eleven months.</li>
<li>Jiyue Auto, as a car maker subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees.</li>
<li>Hisense, a home appliance producer, lays off 30,000 employees of its total 110,000.</li>
</ul>


NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November and 41% YoY for first eleven months.
Jiyue Auto, as a car maker subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees.
Hisense, a home appliance producer, lays off 30,000 employees of its total 110,000.


China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: Baidu-Geely Joint EV Failure Reflects Treacherousness of Chinese Market

EVs / Cover Story: Baidu-Geely joint EV failure reflects treacherousness of Chinese market Ji Yue Auto — an electric vehicle (EV) startup backed...

Caixin Global

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Dec-2024): Merck opens new materials center in Japan.

Merck to build advanced materials center in Japan, global smartphone market to grow in 3Q 2024, US gov't releases supply chain review, SK Hynix...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

CX Daily: How Regulation Shake-Up Cast Public-Private Partnerships Into Limbo

PPP / Cover Story: How regulation shake-up cast public-private partnerships into limbo A Shenzhen-listed garden landscaping company recently...

Caixin Global

China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,

NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November. Jiyue Auto, as a subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees. Hisense, a home appliance...

Ming Lu

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

​The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: Baidu-Geely Joint EV Failure Reflects Treacherousness of Chinese Market

EVs / Cover Story: Baidu-Geely joint EV failure reflects treacherousness of Chinese market Ji Yue Auto — an electric vehicle (EV) startup backed...

Caixin Global

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Dec-2024): Merck opens new materials center in Japan.

Merck to build advanced materials center in Japan, global smartphone market to grow in 3Q 2024, US gov't releases supply chain review, SK Hynix...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

CX Daily: How Regulation Shake-Up Cast Public-Private Partnerships Into Limbo

PPP / Cover Story: How regulation shake-up cast public-private partnerships into limbo A Shenzhen-listed garden landscaping company recently...

Caixin Global

China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): NEV Industry Nov., Baidu, Hisense, Boss Zhipin,

NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November. Jiyue Auto, as a subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees. Hisense, a home appliance...

Ming Lu

The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...