Macro and Australian equity strategist, Macro Strategy Advisors

Shane Lee

Macro and Australian equity strategist

Macro Strategy Advisors

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
The RBA cut interest rates for the first time since August 2016 lifting banks and many domestic cyclical names. A sharp rise in analyst downgrades ahead of reporting season was probably the most important development during the month.  Every sector in the market wore the pain, with IT, Property and Utilities the worst hit. </li>
<li>Despite the bearish sentiment by analysts, the market posted another strong gain (3.7%) led by Resources, Healthcare and Financials.</li>
<li>
Global stock markets rallied by 6.6% has markets decided the Fed will provide a safety net for the global slowdown that is unfolding. Argentina (23%) rallied on the back of the weaker dollar and news that US-China trade relations had improved.  However, Russia (7.3%), the US (7.0%), France (6.8%) and Hong Kong (6.7%) all posted strong gains.  India (-1.3%) was the only market recording a decline, although Mexico (1.7%) barely made a positive gain.</li>
<li>
The strong relative performance of Australia during the May global market correction and the solid performance during June (3.7%) means the market is now trading on stretched PE multiples. The 12-month forward PE multiple ended the month at 15.9x, which is 13.5% above its long-run average.  IT (61.8%), Industrials (52%) and Healthcare (43%) are more overvalued than the other sectors, with substantial PE premiums to the market.  Only Materials (-1.1%) are cheap. </li>
<li>Consistent with the toxic mix of increased downgrade momentum and PE expansion, the volatility of EPS estimates within sectors is relatively large with Financials, Healthcare, Materials, IT and Communication Services all having wider than normal 12-month forward EPS estimates for stocks within sectors.</li>
<li>
The labour force data remains solid, despite weakness in the forward-looking indicators. GDP rose by only 0.4% in Q1, which was slightly less than market expectations (0.5%) and places 4 quarter-ended growth at 1.8%. Credit growth was again subdued posting only a 0.2% gain, while housing finance declined for the second consecutive month.  Retail trade was again weak and posted a modest 0.2% gain in April.  The Australian dollar traded down to $US0.684 but rebounded back to around $US0.70 on broad US dollar weakness.  The RBA recently softened its tone towards further interest rate cuts and the market is expecting the Fed to cut the Fed funds rate later in July.</li>
<li>
CGF, SGP, CTX, RIO LNK, AOG and VVR all lowered guidance. Higher global oil prices earlier in the year are squeezing margins amongst the refiners and petrol retailers, while the weak housing market is impacting SGP and AOG. RIO guided the market to lower production in the Pilbara and it will update the market later this month on the impact of the production weakness on costs.  Lower interest rates and increased compliance costs are weighing on all wealth managers and CGF is no exception after downgrading guidance for FY19 and the outlook in FY 20.</li>
</ul>



The RBA cut interest rates for the first time since August 2016 lifting banks and many domestic cyclical names. A sharp rise in analyst downgrades ahead of reporting season was probably the most important development during the month.  Every sector in the market wore the pain, with IT, Property and Utilities the worst hit. 
Despite the bearish sentiment by analysts, the market posted another strong gain (3.7%) led by Resources, Healthcare and Financials.

Global stock markets rallied by 6.6% has markets decided the Fed will provide a safety net for the global slowdown that is unfolding. Argentina (23%) rallied on the back of the weaker dollar and news that US-China trade relations had improved.  However, Russia (7.3%), the US (7.0%), France (6.8%) and Hong Kong (6.7%) all posted strong gains.  India (-1.3%) was the only market recording a decline, although Mexico (1.7%) barely made a positive gain.

The strong relative performance of Australia during the May global market correction and the solid performance during June (3.7%) means the market is now trading on stretched PE multiples. The 12-month forward PE multiple ended the month at 15.9x, which is 13.5% above its long-run average.  IT (61.8%), Industrials (52%) and Healthcare (43%) are more overvalued than the other sectors, with substantial PE premiums to the market.  Only Materials (-1.1%) are cheap. 
Consistent with the toxic mix of increased downgrade momentum and PE expansion, the volatility of EPS estimates within sectors is relatively large with Financials, Healthcare, Materials, IT and Communication Services all having wider than normal 12-month forward EPS estimates for stocks within sectors.

The labour force data remains solid, despite weakness in the forward-looking indicators. GDP rose by only 0.4% in Q1, which was slightly less than market expectations (0.5%) and places 4 quarter-ended growth at 1.8%. Credit growth was again subdued posting only a 0.2% gain, while housing finance declined for the second consecutive month.  Retail trade was again weak and posted a modest 0.2% gain in April.  The Australian dollar traded down to $US0.684 but rebounded back to around $US0.70 on broad US dollar weakness.  The RBA recently softened its tone towards further interest rate cuts and the market is expecting the Fed to cut the Fed funds rate later in July.

CGF, SGP, CTX, RIO LNK, AOG and VVR all lowered guidance. Higher global oil prices earlier in the year are squeezing margins amongst the refiners and petrol retailers, while the weak housing market is impacting SGP and AOG. RIO guided the market to lower production in the Pilbara and it will update the market later this month on the impact of the production weakness on costs.  Lower interest rates and increased compliance costs are weighing on all wealth managers and CGF is no exception after downgrading guidance for FY19 and the outlook in FY 20.


Aussie Equities Month in Review (June 2019)

<ul class="">
<li>
Buy Australia for its Defensive Qualities. Australia outperforms during periods of global uncertainty and when global interest rates are falling.  Downside risk to the Banks has been taken out by the RBA and APRA.  Moreover, the threat to housing from a Labor Government did not materialise.  Longer-term headwinds remain, but Australia’s defensive attributes will be cherished during global trade uncertainties.</li>
<li>
Move Underweight Miners and Overweight Energy. We move from overweight to slightly underweight the Miners by removing S32 and WHC.  Global demand is slowing and normally that would hit Resources.  However, supply disruptions in iron ore are continuing to put upward pressure on prices and oil supply seem threatened by US-Iran tension in the Middle East.  We retain overweight positions in BHP and RIO.</li>
<li>
Stay Neutral IT. The global tech sector has been a major casualty from the US-China trade war.  We limit our exposure to the sector with overweight positions in only WTC and TNE.  Like many Growth stocks, TNE has felt the market’s wrath by not raising guidance at half-year results.  We remain along for the ride.  WTC is on track after management said EBITDA would increase by 35% in FY19 and as it expanded into new products and geographies.</li>
<li>
Retain Defensive tilt. We retain our overweight to Property.  It has performed in line with our portfolio as bond yields have fallen and we expect it will perform even better if global uncertainties escalate forcing interest rates down further.  We retain 8.5% of our portfolio in the sector.</li>
<li>
It’s not too Late to Buy Domestic Cyclicals: The favourable election result in May and the RBA interest rate cut in June have lit up domestic cyclicals on the prospects that the cycle will extend further.  Most of these stocks still trade on PE multiples that are not stretched and the market seems to not appreciate how the consumer’s spending power will strengthen before Christmas.  We include JHB and CSR and retain CWY and BIN as for exposure to a better housing and consumer outlook. </li>
</ul>



Buy Australia for its Defensive Qualities. Australia outperforms during periods of global uncertainty and when global interest rates are falling.  Downside risk to the Banks has been taken out by the RBA and APRA.  Moreover, the threat to housing from a Labor Government did not materialise.  Longer-term headwinds remain, but Australia’s defensive attributes will be cherished during global trade uncertainties.

Move Underweight Miners and Overweight Energy. We move from overweight to slightly underweight the Miners by removing S32 and WHC.  Global demand is slowing and normally that would hit Resources.  However, supply disruptions in iron ore are continuing to put upward pressure on prices and oil supply seem threatened by US-Iran tension in the Middle East.  We retain overweight positions in BHP and RIO.

Stay Neutral IT. The global tech sector has been a major casualty from the US-China trade war.  We limit our exposure to the sector with overweight positions in only WTC and TNE.  Like many Growth stocks, TNE has felt the market’s wrath by not raising guidance at half-year results.  We remain along for the ride.  WTC is on track after management said EBITDA would increase by 35% in FY19 and as it expanded into new products and geographies.

Retain Defensive tilt. We retain our overweight to Property.  It has performed in line with our portfolio as bond yields have fallen and we expect it will perform even better if global uncertainties escalate forcing interest rates down further.  We retain 8.5% of our portfolio in the sector.

It’s not too Late to Buy Domestic Cyclicals: The favourable election result in May and the RBA interest rate cut in June have lit up domestic cyclicals on the prospects that the cycle will extend further.  Most of these stocks still trade on PE multiples that are not stretched and the market seems to not appreciate how the consumer’s spending power will strengthen before Christmas.  We include JHB and CSR and retain CWY and BIN as for exposure to a better housing and consumer outlook. 


Aussie Equities Model Portfolio Update (June): Buy Protection and Cyclical Extension

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23731" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1">Vale SA (VALE US)</a> woes continue, facing another dam collapse</li>
<li>Forecast seaborne iron ore market deficit &gt;100Mt CY19</li>
<li>Chinese house prices up 10% y-o-y</li>
<li>Chinese Government readying substantial investment stimulus</li>
<li>Continue to positively trade large IO miners</li>
<li>5-year gold price continues to be flat</li>
<li>Global Zinc inventories declining rapidly</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23731" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1">Vale SA (VALE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5424" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1">Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/41" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5124" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19210" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19210:1">Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)</a>, Pensana Metals (ASX: PM8), Axion (ASX: AZQ), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1365" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1365:1">Chesser Resources (CHZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2971" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2971:1">Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20488" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4650" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11138" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11138:1">Hot Chili Ltd (HCH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12048" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12048:1">Newfield Resources (NWF AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7068" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7068:1">Lucapa Diamond (LOM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8807" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8807:1">Theta Gold Mines (TGM AU</a>), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16357" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16357:1">Emperor Range (ERX AU)</a>  </li>
</ul>


Vale SA (VALE US) woes continue, facing another dam collapse
Forecast seaborne iron ore market deficit &gt;100Mt CY19
Chinese house prices up 10% y-o-y
Chinese Government readying substantial investment stimulus
Continue to positively trade large IO miners
5-year gold price continues to be flat
Global Zinc inventories declining rapidly

Vale SA (VALE US), Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU),Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU), Pensana Metals (ASX: PM8), Axion (ASX: AZQ), Alkane Resources (ALK AU), Chesser Resources (CHZ AU), Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Hot Chili Ltd (HCH AU), Newfield Resources (NWF AU), Lucapa Diamond (LOM AU), Theta Gold Mines (TGM AU), Emperor Range (ERX AU)  


New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 17/05/19)

<ul>
<li>
The RBA appears set to lower the official cash rate for the first time since August 2016 after the Q119 data showed it was moving away from the bottom of its 2% to 3% target band. The Bank will also need to lower its inflation and growth forecasts in its May Statement on Monetary Policy, which is released on Friday inflation.  The policy move is not yet fully priced by financial markets and we expect interest rate sensitive sectors and stocks to rally if we are proven correct</li>
<li>
Australia (2.4%) underperformed many global peers during April, but outperformed Argentina (-11.6%), China B Shares (-2.4%), China A Shares (-0.4%), India (0%), Brazil (1.0%) and the UK (2.3%). Germany (7.1%), Singapore (6.1%) and Europe (5.5%) were the best-performing markets followed by Japan (5.0%) and France (4.9%).</li>
<li>
In Australia, Financials gained 4.4% in the month propelling the ASX 200 2.4% higher. Consumer Staples (7.3%) and IT (7.3%) rallied strongly, while Materials (-52.0%), Property (-1.9%), Utilities (-0.5%) and Consumer Discretionary (1.3%) were the laggards.</li>
<li>
Net downgrades eased in March and have now become net upgrades led by Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Property, Industrials and Healthcare. However, this has been mainly due to a large decline in downgrades rather than a large increase in upgrades.</li>
<li>
The main exception was Resources where there were more upgrades relative to the long-run average. There was also a large decline in the number of downgrades and this helped bolster the result, despite the weak share price performance of the sector during the month.</li>
<li>
The labour force data remains solid and one argument why the RBA may not lower the cash rate tomorrow. The economy created 25.7k jobs in April, although rising participation meant the unemployment rate nudged up by 0.15pt to 5.0%.  Better global data is also another reason why the RBA may hold fire, with PMI data in China and the US showing the global growth slowdown may have run its course for now.  The Australian bond market rallied strongly last month, and real 10-year yields are close to their lowest level since the mid-1970s.  Indeed, the bond market expects inflation to remain stable and stubbornly low over the longer-term.  The Australian dollar rallied against the NZ dollar but weakened vs the US dollar on the back of broad US dollar strength.</li>
<li>
VEA, BOQ and BKL lowered guidance, while RIO guided the market to lower production in the Pilbara from that announced to the market last month. Disruptions from Cyclone Veronica to RIO's iron ore production in the region were larger than expected.  BOQ is seeing rising costs due to remediation costs from the Banking Royal Commission, but net interest margins and impairment charges seem well contained.  VEA is seeing margin pressure due to rising global oil prices.</li>
</ul>



The RBA appears set to lower the official cash rate for the first time since August 2016 after the Q119 data showed it was moving away from the bottom of its 2% to 3% target band. The Bank will also need to lower its inflation and growth forecasts in its May Statement on Monetary Policy, which is released on Friday inflation.  The policy move is not yet fully priced by financial markets and we expect interest rate sensitive sectors and stocks to rally if we are proven correct

Australia (2.4%) underperformed many global peers during April, but outperformed Argentina (-11.6%), China B Shares (-2.4%), China A Shares (-0.4%), India (0%), Brazil (1.0%) and the UK (2.3%). Germany (7.1%), Singapore (6.1%) and Europe (5.5%) were the best-performing markets followed by Japan (5.0%) and France (4.9%).

In Australia, Financials gained 4.4% in the month propelling the ASX 200 2.4% higher. Consumer Staples (7.3%) and IT (7.3%) rallied strongly, while Materials (-52.0%), Property (-1.9%), Utilities (-0.5%) and Consumer Discretionary (1.3%) were the laggards.

Net downgrades eased in March and have now become net upgrades led by Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Property, Industrials and Healthcare. However, this has been mainly due to a large decline in downgrades rather than a large increase in upgrades.

The main exception was Resources where there were more upgrades relative to the long-run average. There was also a large decline in the number of downgrades and this helped bolster the result, despite the weak share price performance of the sector during the month.

The labour force data remains solid and one argument why the RBA may not lower the cash rate tomorrow. The economy created 25.7k jobs in April, although rising participation meant the unemployment rate nudged up by 0.15pt to 5.0%.  Better global data is also another reason why the RBA may hold fire, with PMI data in China and the US showing the global growth slowdown may have run its course for now.  The Australian bond market rallied strongly last month, and real 10-year yields are close to their lowest level since the mid-1970s.  Indeed, the bond market expects inflation to remain stable and stubbornly low over the longer-term.  The Australian dollar rallied against the NZ dollar but weakened vs the US dollar on the back of broad US dollar strength.

VEA, BOQ and BKL lowered guidance, while RIO guided the market to lower production in the Pilbara from that announced to the market last month. Disruptions from Cyclone Veronica to RIO's iron ore production in the region were larger than expected.  BOQ is seeing rising costs due to remediation costs from the Banking Royal Commission, but net interest margins and impairment charges seem well contained.  VEA is seeing margin pressure due to rising global oil prices.


Aussie Equities Month in Review (April 2019)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers</li>
<li>Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be</li>
<li>Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected</li>
<li>Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income</li>
<li>Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income</li>
<li>Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP </li>
<li>Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network</li>
<li>Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government's resolve</li>
<li>Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries</li>
</ul>


China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers
Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be
Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected
Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income
Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income
Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP 
Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network
Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government's resolve
Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries


Confluence of Politics - China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Aussie Equities Month in Review (June 2019)

The RBA cut interest rates for the first time since August 2016 lifting banks and many domestic cyclical names. A sharp rise in analyst...

Shane Lee

Aussie Equities Model Portfolio Update (June): Buy Protection and Cyclical Extension

Buy Australia for its Defensive Qualities. Australia outperforms during periods of global uncertainty and when global interest rates are...

Shane Lee

New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 17/05/19)

Vale SA (VALE US) woes continue, facing another dam collapse Forecast seaborne iron ore market deficit >100Mt CY19 Chinese house prices up 10%...

Gaius King

Aussie Equities Month in Review (April 2019)

The RBA appears set to lower the official cash rate for the first time since August 2016 after the Q119 data showed it was moving away from the...

Shane Lee

Confluence of Politics - China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually...

Boost Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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