Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

<p>Empirical data on the drivers of Japanese productivity are sadly not at the forefront of Abenomics, but they should be.  Europacifica CEO Naomi Fink has published, over the last year, two papers with Columbia University's CJEB which show exactly why this is.  The first of these papers illustrates why and where we find evidence that the BOJ's fight against deflation is insufficient (although it may be necessary) to cure Japan's ills:</p><h2>Why Overcoming Deflation Alone is Not Enough</h2><p>There is "bad…</p>

Empirical data on the drivers of Japanese productivity are sadly not at the forefront of Abenomics, but they should be.  Europacifica CEO Naomi Fink has published, over the last year, two papers with Columbia University's CJEB which show exactly why this is.  The first of these papers illustrates why and where we find evidence that the BOJ's fight against deflation is insufficient (although it may be necessary) to cure Japan's ills:Why Overcoming Deflation Alone is Not EnoughThere is "bad…

Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable / Index Rebalance

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (6869 HK)

<ul>
<li>The changes to a global index in February will be announced pre-market open tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 27 February.</li>
<li>The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangtze-optical-fibre-and-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:83:1" rel="noopener">Yangtze Optical Fibre And H (6869 HK)</a> is up 90% over the last 3 weeks and the AH premium versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangtze-optical-fibre-cable" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29980:1" rel="noopener">Yangtze Optical Fibre &amp; Cable (601869 CH)</a> has dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


The changes to a global index in February will be announced pre-market open tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 27 February.
The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.

Yangtze Optical Fibre And H (6869 HK) is up 90% over the last 3 weeks and the AH premium versus Yangtze Optical Fibre &amp; Cable (601869 CH) has dropped significantly.


Global Index: Potential Changes in February for Asia Pac

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Semi-Cap names outperforming an otherwise dreary tape after TSMC announces no Chinese equipment in its 2nm lines for fear of US reprisals </li>
<li>Yields rose on concerns it's going to be a 'one and done' situation after September cuts </li>
<li>Trend Micro looking interesting after rebounding off the lows yesterday - with OTC prints possibly pointing to a seller getting cleaned up after 2-months of woeful price action </li>
</ul>


Semi-Cap names outperforming an otherwise dreary tape after TSMC announces no Chinese equipment in its 2nm lines for fear of US reprisals 
Yields rose on concerns it's going to be a 'one and done' situation after September cuts 
Trend Micro looking interesting after rebounding off the lows yesterday - with OTC prints possibly pointing to a seller getting cleaned up after 2-months of woeful price action 


Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>DeepSeek app revolutionizes smart vehicles with advanced technology for a seamless driving experience and enhanced safety features.</li><li>Primarius enhances EDA consolidation in China through the acquisition of Actt, accelerating innovation and growth in the semiconductor industry.</li><li>SMIC experiences record revenue growth in 2024, but sees a 23% decline in profit, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in a competitive market. Trend Micro warns of AI security risks and 'grandma prompt' threat at the AI Expo 2025. Uni-President Group strengthens e-commerce presence through strategic acquisitions and investments in Yahoo Taiwan and PChome Online.</li></ul>

DeepSeek app revolutionizes smart vehicles with advanced technology for a seamless driving experience and enhanced safety features.Primarius enhances EDA consolidation in China through the acquisition of Actt, accelerating innovation and growth in the semiconductor industry.SMIC experiences record revenue growth in 2024, but sees a 23% decline in profit, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in a competitive market. Trend Micro warns of AI security risks and 'grandma prompt' threat at the AI Expo 2025. Uni-President Group strengthens e-commerce presence through strategic acquisitions and investments in Yahoo Taiwan and PChome Online.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Mar-2025): Smart cars use DeepSeek apps.

<ul>
<li>In a big surprise, there is only one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The non-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped yet again in September.</li>
</ul>


In a big surprise, there is only one change for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March with BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replacing Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP). 
The non-inclusion of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped yet again in September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Japan

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

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Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)

Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough

Empirical data on the drivers of Japanese productivity are sadly not at the forefront of Abenomics, but they should be. Europacifica CEO Naomi...

Naomi Fink

Global Index: Potential Changes in February for Asia Pac

A global index announces tomorrow and rebalances at the close on 27 Feb. There will be a lot of changes with China leading the way. Stocks have...

Brian Freitas

Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.

Andrew Jackson

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Mar-2025): Smart cars use DeepSeek apps.

DeepSeek app enhances smart vehicle capabilities. Primarius accelerates EDA consolidation with Actt acquisition in China while SMIC's profit...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough

Empirical data on the drivers of Japanese productivity are sadly not at the forefront of Abenomics, but they should be. Europacifica CEO Naomi...

Naomi Fink

Global Index: Potential Changes in February for Asia Pac

A global index announces tomorrow and rebalances at the close on 27 Feb. There will be a lot of changes with China leading the way. Stocks have...

Brian Freitas

Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

​Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.

Andrew Jackson

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Mar-2025): Smart cars use DeepSeek apps.

DeepSeek app enhances smart vehicle capabilities. Primarius accelerates EDA consolidation with Actt acquisition in China while SMIC's profit...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.