Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

The under-performance of Japan's non-IT sector was our focus last time (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-non-it-industries-overcoming-deflation-not-enough" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:4491">Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough</a> ), where we demonstrated why overcoming deflation alone will not resolve Japan's economic problems.  We observed clear out-performance of the "deflationary" IT vs non-IT sector in terms of productivity.  We then examined the role of Investment-Specific Technology (relative capital vs consumer goods deflation) in productivity growth and found it responsible for…

The under-performance of Japan's non-IT sector was our focus last time (see Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough ), where we demonstrated why overcoming deflation alone will not resolve Japan's economic problems.  We observed clear out-performance of the "deflationary" IT vs non-IT sector in terms of productivity.  We then examined the role of Investment-Specific Technology (relative capital vs consumer goods deflation) in productivity growth and found it responsible for…

Overcoming Deflation Is Not Enough Part II: Japanese Services

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Fukuoka Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 31 August 2016Japan stock long playsTo view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/GHtat5tVz" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/GHtat5tVz</a> 3:17 min.<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/012/504/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1472616736" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="12504"><figcaption class="figcaption">Long Japan stocks plays</figcaption></figure> 
</div>Our call on a weaker JPY puts into play Yen sensitive stocks paritulalry since the Nikkie overall remains rather boxed (prefer to load up on September weakness).<div>SMFG (8316) - Breakout today above 3,500 . Long from 3,620 with ST dip swing risk to 3,500. ST rally target at 3,900 representing MT inflection resistance above which we would…</div>

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 31 August 2016Japan stock long playsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/GHtat5tVz 3:17 min.
Long Japan stocks plays 
Our call on a weaker JPY puts into play Yen sensitive stocks paritulalry since the Nikkie overall remains rather boxed (prefer to load up on September weakness).SMFG (8316) - Breakout today above 3,500 . Long from 3,620 with ST dip swing risk to 3,500. ST rally target at 3,900 representing MT inflection resistance above which we would…

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sega Sammy has destroyed enormous value through poor execution and undisciplined acquisitions, but Tier-1 global intellectual property and a fortress balance sheet remain in-tact.</li>
<li>Management has pivoted hard with a freeze on M&amp;A, a promise of massively higher shareholder returns and renewed focus on monetizing its transmedia licensing opportunities,</li>
<li>The market has priced in a structural decline, but with new IP-led growth and margins set to normalize, the stock could double within the next year.</li>
</ul>


Sega Sammy has destroyed enormous value through poor execution and undisciplined acquisitions, but Tier-1 global intellectual property and a fortress balance sheet remain in-tact.
Management has pivoted hard with a freeze on M&amp;A, a promise of massively higher shareholder returns and renewed focus on monetizing its transmedia licensing opportunities,
The market has priced in a structural decline, but with new IP-led growth and margins set to normalize, the stock could double within the next year.


Sega Sammy (6460): Lessons Learned the Hard Way Are Often Learned the Best

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Kayou Inc., early-mover in the trading card industry in China, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. The company sells trading cards, toys, figures, badges, pens, and notebooks, among others.</li>
<li>Kayou Inc. received capital of ~$135M from HongShan Capital and Tencent Holdings in 2022. Mr. Li Qibin founded trading card and collectible toy firm in 2011.</li>
<li>Founder led company has delivered 250%+ growth and FCF of $500M+ in 2024. The market opportunity is large enough to support sustained high growth for Kayou for several years.</li>
</ul>


Kayou Inc., early-mover in the trading card industry in China, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. The company sells trading cards, toys, figures, badges, pens, and notebooks, among others.
Kayou Inc. received capital of ~$135M from HongShan Capital and Tencent Holdings in 2022. Mr. Li Qibin founded trading card and collectible toy firm in 2011.
Founder led company has delivered 250%+ growth and FCF of $500M+ in 2024. The market opportunity is large enough to support sustained high growth for Kayou for several years.


Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In a big surprise, there is only one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The non-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped yet again in September.</li>
</ul>


In a big surprise, there is only one change for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March with BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replacing Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP). 
The non-inclusion of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped yet again in September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Japan

Konami Holdings Corporation provides digital entertainment, health and fitness and gaming products. The Company develops and sells video games, mobile games and computer games, gaming machines, pachislot and pachinko machines, and fitness machines as well as operates health and fitness clubs.

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Konami Holdings (9766 JP)

Overcoming Deflation Is Not Enough Part II: Japanese Services

The under-performance of Japan's non-IT sector was our focus last time (see Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough ), where we...

Naomi Fink

Japan Bullish Breakout Stock Bets

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 31 August 2016Japan stock long playsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/GHtat5tVz 3:17 min. Our...

Thomas Schroeder

Sega Sammy (6460): Lessons Learned the Hard Way Are Often Learned the Best

Sega Sammy's poor execution and acquisitions have destroyed value, but with a freeze on M&A, a focus on its Tier-1 intellectual property, and a...

Michael Allen

Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China

Shanghai-based Kayou Inc., a Chinese trading card and collectible toy company, is seeking to raise capital in Hong Kong. Kayou Inc. has delivered...

Andrei Zakharov

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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Overcoming Deflation Is Not Enough Part II: Japanese Services

The under-performance of Japan's non-IT sector was our focus last time (see Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough ), where we...

Naomi Fink

Japan Bullish Breakout Stock Bets

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 31 August 2016Japan stock long playsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/GHtat5tVz 3:17 min. Our...

Thomas Schroeder

Sega Sammy (6460): Lessons Learned the Hard Way Are Often Learned the Best

​Sega Sammy's poor execution and acquisitions have destroyed value, but with a freeze on M&A, a focus on its Tier-1 intellectual property, and a...

Michael Allen

Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China

Shanghai-based Kayou Inc., a Chinese trading card and collectible toy company, is seeking to raise capital in Hong Kong. Kayou Inc. has delivered...

Andrei Zakharov

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Sega Sammy's poor execution and acquisitions have destroyed value, but with a freeze on M&A, a focus on its Tier-1 intellectual property, and a...