HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Whether in terms of revenue scale or profitability, Suplay is lower than Kayou. This difference is responsible for the disparity in cost-sharing capabilities and scale effects between the two companies.</li>
<li>Suplay cannot “spread out” the costs of outsourcing and IP. Both will reduce the overall profit, which is difficult to reverse. The trap of relying on external IP is intensifying.</li>
<li>Since Pop Mart has rich proprietary IPs, it possesses strong incubation and operation capabilities.Valuation of Suplay should be lower than Pop Mart, who has higher certainties in business model/growth outlook</li>
</ul>


Whether in terms of revenue scale or profitability, Suplay is lower than Kayou. This difference is responsible for the disparity in cost-sharing capabilities and scale effects between the two companies.
Suplay cannot “spread out” the costs of outsourcing and IP. Both will reduce the overall profit, which is difficult to reverse. The trap of relying on external IP is intensifying.
Since Pop Mart has rich proprietary IPs, it possesses strong incubation and operation capabilities.Valuation of Suplay should be lower than Pop Mart, who has higher certainties in business model/growth outlook


Pre-IPO Suplay - The Business Model, Peer Comparison and the Outlook

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

TOP TOY International Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>TOP TOY International Group Limited, a world-class pop toy brand company from China, filed to go public in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Founded in 2020, the brand has quickly positioned itself as a domestic rival to China’s Pop Mart, capitalizing on the country’s booming “blind box” and designer toy craze.</li>
<li>TOP TOY has shown strong growth and execution, going from RMB641m in sales of pop toy products in 2022 to RMB2,554m expected this year.</li>
</ul>


TOP TOY International Group Limited, a world-class pop toy brand company from China, filed to go public in Hong Kong.
Founded in 2020, the brand has quickly positioned itself as a domestic rival to China’s Pop Mart, capitalizing on the country’s booming “blind box” and designer toy craze.
TOP TOY has shown strong growth and execution, going from RMB641m in sales of pop toy products in 2022 to RMB2,554m expected this year.


TOP TOY IPO: From China To The World — Rapid Growth and Solid Profitability Under MINISO Group

52TOYS Development / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>For IP toy, the ability to provide a variety of categories is valuable,which means brands have access to diverse/creative designs/production based on IP characteristics, highlighting/interpreting the core of each IP.</li>
<li>Driven by top-tier licensed IPs, 52TOYS achieved solid growth, but its revenue scale/profit margin are inferior to peers. Due to intense competition, 52TOYS's market share may be further squeezed.</li>
<li>The post-money valuation after Series C+ Financing is RMB4.27 billion. Based on the analysis, we think valuation of 52TOYS should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks (325 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


For IP toy, the ability to provide a variety of categories is valuable,which means brands have access to diverse/creative designs/production based on IP characteristics, highlighting/interpreting the core of each IP.
Driven by top-tier licensed IPs, 52TOYS achieved solid growth, but its revenue scale/profit margin are inferior to peers. Due to intense competition, 52TOYS's market share may be further squeezed.
The post-money valuation after Series C+ Financing is RMB4.27 billion. Based on the analysis, we think valuation of 52TOYS should be lower than Pop Mart (9992 HK), Bloks (325 HK).


Pre-IPO 52TOYS Development - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

<ul>
<li>Kayou’s business model revolves around IP licensing+blind box+multi-category expansion.With trading cards as the core traffic entry point, Kayou expands to other products, forming a synergistic effect of "card revenue+derivative products".</li>
<li>Kayou mainly relies on licensed IPs to drive growth, Its revenue are highly concentrated on limited number of IPs. The expiration of IP license agreements is “The Sword of Damocles”</li>
<li>Valuation could be lower than peers as the core risks are concentrated on IP renewal and the government's supervision of minors, which would negatively affect the sustainability of future growth.</li>
</ul>


Kayou’s business model revolves around IP licensing+blind box+multi-category expansion.With trading cards as the core traffic entry point, Kayou expands to other products, forming a synergistic effect of "card revenue+derivative products".
Kayou mainly relies on licensed IPs to drive growth, Its revenue are highly concentrated on limited number of IPs. The expiration of IP license agreements is “The Sword of Damocles”
Valuation could be lower than peers as the core risks are concentrated on IP renewal and the government's supervision of minors, which would negatively affect the sustainability of future growth.


Pre-IPO Kayou - The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind

<ul>
<li>Kayou Inc., a founder led IP-themed trading card company, plans to go public in Hong Kong. The company’s financial profile and profitability are unique among its mid-cap peers.</li>
<li>The company reported 2024 revenue of RMB10,057m, up 278% y/y, driven by an increase in sales of trading cards, corresponding to an increase in their sales volume.</li>
<li>Kayou Inc. appears to have a decent runway for growth. Companies with both “elite” gross profit margins and higher revenue growth would tend to trade at higher multiples.</li>
</ul>


Kayou Inc., a founder led IP-themed trading card company, plans to go public in Hong Kong. The company’s financial profile and profitability are unique among its mid-cap peers.
The company reported 2024 revenue of RMB10,057m, up 278% y/y, driven by an increase in sales of trading cards, corresponding to an increase in their sales volume.
Kayou Inc. appears to have a decent runway for growth. Companies with both “elite” gross profit margins and higher revenue growth would tend to trade at higher multiples.


Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs

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Kayou (KAYOU HK)

Pre-IPO Suplay - The Business Model, Peer Comparison and the Outlook

Suplicy's lower revenue and profitability compared to Kayou lead to limited cost-sharing capabilities and scale effects, while Pop Mart's strong...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

TOP TOY IPO: From China To The World — Rapid Growth and Solid Profitability Under MINISO Group

China's TOP TOY set to go public in Hong Kong, challenging Pop Mart with impressive growth in the "blind box" segment and designer toy market.

Andrei Zakharov

Pre-IPO 52TOYS Development - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

52TOYS had lower revenue scale and profit margin than peers. The model of relying on product social value and scarcity to drive repeat purchases...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Kayou - The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind

Kayou's business model relies on IP licensing and blind box strategy, with revenue concentrated on limited IPs. Valuation may be lower due to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs

Kayou Inc., a prominent Chinese trading card and collectible toy unicorn, plans to go public in Hong Kong. The company is growing rapidly at a...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Suplay - The Business Model, Peer Comparison and the Outlook

​Suplicy's lower revenue and profitability compared to Kayou lead to limited cost-sharing capabilities and scale effects, while Pop Mart's strong...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

TOP TOY IPO: From China To The World — Rapid Growth and Solid Profitability Under MINISO Group

​China's TOP TOY set to go public in Hong Kong, challenging Pop Mart with impressive growth in the "blind box" segment and designer toy market.

Andrei Zakharov

Pre-IPO 52TOYS Development - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

52TOYS had lower revenue scale and profit margin than peers. The model of relying on product social value and scarcity to drive repeat purchases...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Kayou - The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind

​Kayou's business model relies on IP licensing and blind box strategy, with revenue concentrated on limited IPs. Valuation may be lower due to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs

Kayou Inc., a prominent Chinese trading card and collectible toy unicorn, plans to go public in Hong Kong. The company is growing rapidly at a...

Andrei Zakharov

Suplicy's lower revenue and profitability compared to Kayou lead to limited cost-sharing capabilities and scale effects, while Pop Mart's strong...

China's TOP TOY set to go public in Hong Kong, challenging Pop Mart with impressive growth in the "blind box" segment and designer toy market.

Kayou's business model relies on IP licensing and blind box strategy, with revenue concentrated on limited IPs. Valuation may be lower due to...