Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As we write this, fears of a reprisal attack by Saudi Arabia are being priced into the markets. Oil is surging on the back of the largest ever supply disruption in history.  Investment managers are likely caught on the wrong side of the Energy Sector move and were very underweight as the Sector’s performance has, year-to-date, been nothing but an anchor on performance.  The Energy Sector has underperformed for well over a decade and the sector is at its lowest weighting in the S&amp;P 500 going back to 2005. We are taking this opportunity to upgrade the Energy Sector to a Market Weight from an Underweight as we believe retaliatory action is highly likely.The move to value is a trend that we see likely to continue. Small-caps have also done an about face vs large caps (Russell 2000 vs Russell 1000) after having broken to RS lows not seen since 2009. We believe this will result in a move that would likely take us back up to the top of the range assuming a recession is off the table. In this report, we lay out our complete U.S. equity strategy, and make detailed comments and recommendations on each of our 12 Sectors.

 As we write this, fears of a reprisal attack by Saudi Arabia are being priced into the markets. Oil is surging on the back of the largest ever supply disruption in history.  Investment managers are likely caught on the wrong side of the Energy Sector move and were very underweight as the Sector’s performance has, year-to-date, been nothing but an anchor on performance.  The Energy Sector has underperformed for well over a decade and the sector is at its lowest weighting in the S&amp;P 500 going back to 2005. We are taking this opportunity to upgrade the Energy Sector to a Market Weight from an Underweight as we believe retaliatory action is highly likely.The move to value is a trend that we see likely to continue. Small-caps have also done an about face vs large caps (Russell 2000 vs Russell 1000) after having broken to RS lows not seen since 2009. We believe this will result in a move that would likely take us back up to the top of the range assuming a recession is off the table. In this report, we lay out our complete U.S. equity strategy, and make detailed comments and recommendations on each of our 12 Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value and Small-Caps Appear to Be on the Cusp of Major Bullish Moves

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted Energy and UK/European Financials are breaking out. This only serves to add to our already positive outlook as U.S. equities are poised to test all-time highs. We are upgrading equal-weight Energy to market weight. Also in today’s report, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Semiconductors.

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted Energy and UK/European Financials are breaking out. This only serves to add to our already positive outlook as U.S. equities are poised to test all-time highs. We are upgrading equal-weight Energy to market weight. Also in today’s report, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Semiconductors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Equal-Weight Energy Sector; Semis Are Leading Tech

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

The S&amp;P 500 remains just short of formidable resistance at its 200-day MA. Yet, there are signs of continued breadth improvement.  Technology in particular continues to top our Sector RSR rankings, fueled by strengthening price and RS action for semiconductors, semi-suppliers, and numerous Software groups. Last week we upgraded our weighting for Technology and its strength continues to broaden out. In this week's report we highlight a number of actionable Technology stocks across our various Groups.

The S&amp;P 500 remains just short of formidable resistance at its 200-day MA. Yet, there are signs of continued breadth improvement.  Technology in particular continues to top our Sector RSR rankings, fueled by strengthening price and RS action for semiconductors, semi-suppliers, and numerous Software groups. Last week we upgraded our weighting for Technology and its strength continues to broaden out. In this week's report we highlight a number of actionable Technology stocks across our various Groups.

U.S. Tech Stocks Are Leading Market Higher.

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&amp;P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering from last week, we are benefitting from renewed clarity following the muddled, past two months.In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in the following Groups:<ul><li>Semis... see page 14-20</li><li>Insurers... see page 8-13</li></ul>

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&amp;P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering from last week, we are benefitting from renewed clarity following the muddled, past two months.In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in the following Groups:Semis... see page 14-20Insurers... see page 8-13

U.S. Equity Uptrend Resumes; Outlook Remains Bullish

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Power Integrations, Inc. reported Q1 revenues of $106 million, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, aligning with the mid-point of its guidance range.</li><li>The company achieved a non-GAAP EPS of $0.31 and realized a strong cash flow, which supported its strategic decision to repurchase shares amidst market volatility.</li><li>Each of the four primary end markets—consumer, computer, communications, and industrial—witnessed growth.</li></ul>

Power Integrations, Inc. reported Q1 revenues of $106 million, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, aligning with the mid-point of its guidance range.The company achieved a non-GAAP EPS of $0.31 and realized a strong cash flow, which supported its strategic decision to repurchase shares amidst market volatility.Each of the four primary end markets—consumer, computer, communications, and industrial—witnessed growth.

Power Integrations: Geographic and Supply Chain Shifts Are Playing A Key Role In Its Growth Strategy!

United States

Power Integrations, Inc. designs, develops, and markets analog integrated circuits for use in alternating current (AC) to direct current (DC) power conversion.  The Company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers in the cellular telephone, consumer electronics, personal computer, and industrial electronics industries.

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Power Integrations (POWI US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value and Small-Caps Appear to Be on the Cusp of Major Bullish Moves

As we write this, fears of a reprisal attack by Saudi Arabia are being priced into the markets. Oil is surging on the back of the largest ever...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Equal-Weight Energy Sector; Semis Are Leading Tech

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Tech Stocks Are Leading Market Higher.

The S&P 500 remains just short of formidable resistance at its 200-day MA. Yet, there are signs of continued breadth improvement. Technology...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Uptrend Resumes; Outlook Remains Bullish

Technicals continue to endorse a bullish outlook. And with the S&P 500 breaking out to new highs yesterday, and insurance stocks recovering...

Vermilion Research

Power Integrations: Geographic and Supply Chain Shifts Are Playing A Key Role In Its Growth Strategy!

Power Integrations, Inc. reported Q1 revenues of $106 million, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, aligning with the mid-point of its...

Baptista Research

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