Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This buyback facilitates KDB’s exit, as rules prevent a block trade benefiting one shareholder. KDB plans to tender a 4–5% stake, or about 40% of the 2 trillion KRW buyback.</li>
<li>Given HMM's tight float, the premium is likely above the usual 10%, making it a strong opportunity for short-term arbitrage trading.</li>
<li>The key is timing the announcement. With the June deadline, we need to monitor hot money flows into HMM to build our position before the news breaks.</li>
</ul>


This buyback facilitates KDB’s exit, as rules prevent a block trade benefiting one shareholder. KDB plans to tender a 4–5% stake, or about 40% of the 2 trillion KRW buyback.
Given HMM's tight float, the premium is likely above the usual 10%, making it a strong opportunity for short-term arbitrage trading.
The key is timing the announcement. With the June deadline, we need to monitor hot money flows into HMM to build our position before the news breaks.


HMM’s 2T KRW Buyback Tender to Drop Before June End

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 22 January, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced its new Corporate Value Up plan which included five major items.</li>
<li>They include higher shareholder returns, achieve average sales growth of 9% and ROE of 4% in the next three years, and improve communication with stakeholders and shareholders.</li>
<li><em><strong>The company plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap. </strong></em></li>
</ul>


On 22 January, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced its new Corporate Value Up plan which included five major items.
They include higher shareholder returns, achieve average sales growth of 9% and ROE of 4% in the next three years, and improve communication with stakeholders and shareholders.
The company plans to implement total shareholder returns of at least 2.5 trillion won within one year, which represents 14.8% of its market cap. 


HMM: Material Improvement in Corporate Value Up Plan

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>HMM's aggressive short-term return strategy is driven by KDB's BIS issue, explaining why they acted earlier and more aggressively than expected.</li>
<li>HMM's best move is boosting the 2024 div payout, keeping KDB happy by smoothing over KDB's PR angle, and aligning with its June value-up index rebalance agenda.</li>
<li>The 2024 year-end dividend is conservatively expected between KRW 850-1,200 per share, totaling KRW 750 billion to 1 trillion, with the record date likely in late February or early March.</li>
</ul>


HMM's aggressive short-term return strategy is driven by KDB's BIS issue, explaining why they acted earlier and more aggressively than expected.
HMM's best move is boosting the 2024 div payout, keeping KDB happy by smoothing over KDB's PR angle, and aligning with its June value-up index rebalance agenda.
The 2024 year-end dividend is conservatively expected between KRW 850-1,200 per share, totaling KRW 750 billion to 1 trillion, with the record date likely in late February or early March.


Unpacking the Backstory of HMM's Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus

<ul>
<li>To stay in the Value-up index by June, HMM needs to maintain high ROE, but with 2023's dip and a 2024 estimate around mid-10%, they’ll be borderline in the rankings.</li>
<li>Local markets expect HMM’s dividend payout to range from 840 KRW to mid-1,000 KRW, with a yield of 4.5% to 8%, while futures show mild backwardation in February and March.</li>
<li>HMM may finalize the dividend and announce the record date by late January, with the record date likely in mid to late February.</li>
</ul>


To stay in the Value-up index by June, HMM needs to maintain high ROE, but with 2023's dip and a 2024 estimate around mid-10%, they’ll be borderline in the rankings.
Local markets expect HMM’s dividend payout to range from 840 KRW to mid-1,000 KRW, with a yield of 4.5% to 8%, while futures show mild backwardation in February and March.
HMM may finalize the dividend and announce the record date by late January, with the record date likely in mid to late February.


HMM's Shaping up to Be a Solid Pick for Classic Dividend Arbitrage Plays

<ul>
<li>Thanks to the Series 196 CB conversions and leftover action, we're seeing a 10%p dip this time around.</li>
<li>The stock will price in the change from around 2 PM Tuesday, Nov 12, with 15 billion KRW outflow, that is roughly -0.74x of the ADTV.</li>
<li>Lately, flow events are getting tipped off more, leading to aggressive pre-positioning. I’ll monitor HMM’s price and volume Monday, then decide if I’ll target Tuesday’s passive outflow.</li>
</ul>


Thanks to the Series 196 CB conversions and leftover action, we're seeing a 10%p dip this time around.
The stock will price in the change from around 2 PM Tuesday, Nov 12, with 15 billion KRW outflow, that is roughly -0.74x of the ADTV.
Lately, flow events are getting tipped off more, leading to aggressive pre-positioning. I’ll monitor HMM’s price and volume Monday, then decide if I’ll target Tuesday’s passive outflow.


Estimating the Passive Impact of HMM’s KOSPI 200 Float Rate Cut, Going into Effect on Nov 13

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

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