Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Monex missed significantly at the PBT level with results of ¥1.01bn 73% below consensus of ¥3.77bn. </li>
<li>This was a result of weak revenue and margins for the crypto business as advertising expense escalated into falling top line. </li>
<li>The result is unlikely to do anything to reverse the recent downward trend of the stock and we recommend staying hedged.</li>
</ul>


Monex missed significantly at the PBT level with results of ¥1.01bn 73% below consensus of ¥3.77bn. 
This was a result of weak revenue and margins for the crypto business as advertising expense escalated into falling top line. 
The result is unlikely to do anything to reverse the recent downward trend of the stock and we recommend staying hedged.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210705E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  </li>
<li>At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.</li>
</ul>


The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.
The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 announced a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  
At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.


Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

<ul>
<li>We said previously that we would remain positive on Monex until there were signs of a crypto currency breakdown. </li>
<li>That now appears to be happening and we are thus leery of the pure long trade here. </li>
<li>However, earnings trends are reasonable and we still like the name so we would examine hedging options.</li>
</ul>


We said previously that we would remain positive on Monex until there were signs of a crypto currency breakdown. 
That now appears to be happening and we are thus leery of the pure long trade here. 
However, earnings trends are reasonable and we still like the name so we would examine hedging options.


Monex – Bitcoin Breakdown Means This Needs a Hedge

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the IPO valuation.</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note we will talk about the IPO valuation.


Net Protections Holdings IPO - Needs a Bit of Hope and Belief

<ul>
<li>Monex’s SPAC of its TradeStation business highlighted the hidden potential of its non-crypto assets.</li>
<li>While its domestic business has traditionally been volatile and not grown profit especially quickly that appears to be changing.</li>
<li>We examine the potential of the company’s regional bank tie-ups below.</li>
</ul>


Monex’s SPAC of its TradeStation business highlighted the hidden potential of its non-crypto assets.
While its domestic business has traditionally been volatile and not grown profit especially quickly that appears to be changing.
We examine the potential of the company’s regional bank tie-ups below.


Monex – Examining the Domestic Business

Japan

Monex Group, Inc. is a holding company, which was established through merger between Monex and Nikko Beans. The Company manages its subsidiaries that provides investing services for self-directed investors through Internet and telephone.

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Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)

Monex – Downside Crypto Surprise

Monex missed at the PBT level due to weak revenue and margins for the crypto business. The result is unlikely to reverse the recent downward trend...

Mio Kato

Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

There is likely to be one Nikkei 225 Change around the end of Q1 2022. There may be more. We will know more on 11 Jan 2022 how many deletions are...

Travis Lundy

Monex – Bitcoin Breakdown Means This Needs a Hedge

We said previously that we would remain positive on Monex until there were signs of a crypto currency breakdown. With that occurring we are leery...

Mio Kato

Net Protections Holdings IPO - Needs a Bit of Hope and Belief

Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares...

Sumeet Singh

Monex – Examining the Domestic Business

While Monex's domestic business has traditionally been volatile and not grown profit especially quickly that appears to be changing...

Mio Kato

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