Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Buying the worst-performing stocks of the previous 12 months has outperformed Japan’s Topix index by an average of 7% annually for 9 straight years</li>
<li>For most of 2024, the strategy didn’t work, but an uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and merger talks is suddenly making it unsafe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Suddenly, dozens of previously complacent companies have the fear of God and are taking action to up their profitability and the market is taking notice. </li>
</ul>


Buying the worst-performing stocks of the previous 12 months has outperformed Japan’s Topix index by an average of 7% annually for 9 straight years
For most of 2024, the strategy didn’t work, but an uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and merger talks is suddenly making it unsafe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Suddenly, dozens of previously complacent companies have the fear of God and are taking action to up their profitability and the market is taking notice. 


2024 Was Ugly for Turnarounds, 2025 Should Be Awesome!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>
OVERSEAS:  WCUP: Argentina/Messi prevail; SPX -2.1%WoW on recession narrative; SPX option expiry exacerbates moves;  Calls for new TESLA CEO; GS to cut 8% of workforce;  Covid spreads in China</li>
<li>
JAPAN:  NKY Futs at -0.9% vs Cash;  Defense Bill Approved - no tax hike till 2024; Lawson's Seijo Ishii IPO postponed; Renesas suspends China ops on Covid; Decarbonization-related investments unabated</li>
<li>
DAILY NUGGET:  We look a the another attempt of the Japanese government at regional revitalization. Smells of pork barrel spending to us. </li>
</ul>



OVERSEAS:  WCUP: Argentina/Messi prevail; SPX -2.1%WoW on recession narrative; SPX option expiry exacerbates moves;  Calls for new TESLA CEO; GS to cut 8% of workforce;  Covid spreads in China

JAPAN:  NKY Futs at -0.9% vs Cash;  Defense Bill Approved - no tax hike till 2024; Lawson's Seijo Ishii IPO postponed; Renesas suspends China ops on Covid; Decarbonization-related investments unabated

DAILY NUGGET:  We look a the another attempt of the Japanese government at regional revitalization. Smells of pork barrel spending to us. 


Good Morning Japan |Argentina and Messi Triumph! Recession Fears Persist - No Break for Equities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 10th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, an Indian renewable energy play, announced a US$7.07/share NBIO from a consortium comprising CPP, ADIA, Sumant Sinha, and Masdar.</li>
<li>The consortium, with ~64%, bumped indicative terms to US$8/share. Then to US$8.15/share. Minorities/disinterested shareholders were largely supportive. Then Masdar mysteriously walked on the 15th December 2025, and the deal folded.</li>
<li>On the 29th May, CPP and Sumant Sinha, collectively holding ~50%, returned with a US$6.75/share NBIO, then bumped to US$7.02/share. Trading seriously wide at ~15% (gross spread). Once bitten ...</li>
</ul>


On the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced a US$7.07/share NBIO from a consortium comprising CPP, ADIA, Sumant Sinha, and Masdar.
The consortium, with ~64%, bumped indicative terms to US$8/share. Then to US$8.15/share. Minorities/disinterested shareholders were largely supportive. Then Masdar mysteriously walked on the 15th December 2025, and the deal folded.
On the 29th May, CPP and Sumant Sinha, collectively holding ~50%, returned with a US$6.75/share NBIO, then bumped to US$7.02/share. Trading seriously wide at ~15% (gross spread). Once bitten ...


ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): On CPP's Underwhelming Re-Bid

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nippon Steel, Kioxia.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nippon Steel, Kioxia.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jul): Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Kioxia

Japan

Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in Chubu area.  The Company's service area includes Aichi, Gifu, Mie, Nagano, and part of Shizuoka Prefecture.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Chubu Electric Power Co (9502 JP)

2024 Was Ugly for Turnarounds, 2025 Should Be Awesome!

2025 could be a banner year for turnarounds and value stocks as a spate of recent TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions have suddenly made it unsafe to...

Michael Allen

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Good Morning Japan |Argentina and Messi Triumph! Recession Fears Persist - No Break for Equities

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP...

Mark Chadwick

ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): On CPP's Underwhelming Re-Bid

Revised - and finial - terms are underwhelming. I doubt the Special Committee is supportive. Plus you have tough negotiator JERA in the wings...

David Blennerhassett

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jul): Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Kioxia

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Mitsubishi UFJ...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)