Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-ad-partners-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP)</a> has become GMO Internet as of 1 January 2025. On that day, it merged with the "internet infrastructure business" of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (9449 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>It was a kind of reverse takeover - a backdoor listing - and it on 24-Dec-2024, it was announced GMO Internet would move from TSE Standard to TSE Prime end-Jan2025.</li>
<li>The stock is +300% since then. Why? A squeeze. Share count increase? 15x. Float share increase? Zero. Resulting Real World Float? 1.24% of shares out and about to shrink.</li>
</ul>



Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP) has become GMO Internet as of 1 January 2025. On that day, it merged with the "internet infrastructure business" of GMO Internet (9449 JP). 
It was a kind of reverse takeover - a backdoor listing - and it on 24-Dec-2024, it was announced GMO Internet would move from TSE Standard to TSE Prime end-Jan2025.
The stock is +300% since then. Why? A squeeze. Share count increase? 15x. Float share increase? Zero. Resulting Real World Float? 1.24% of shares out and about to shrink.


GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic - Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Index Rebalance

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

<ul>
<li>The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.</li>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.</li>
</ul>


The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.
The changes for the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.
Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Maki-San likely holds around 28% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a>, targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.</li>
<li>SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.</li>
<li>At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.</li>
</ul>


Maki-San likely holds around 28% of BASE Inc (4477 JP), targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.
SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.
At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.


BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> disclosed a "<em>difference of views</em>" with Maki-san, who says management ignored the cost of his trading restrictions; he would resume buying from 2 October, targeting over 30%.</li>
<li>With Maki buying at JPY370+, shares trading above terms and the 25% listing floor limiting supply, SBI faces a shortfall at JPY340, and a bump looks inevitable.</li>
<li>SBI likely needs about JPY420 to beat a potential Maki tender, but negotiating with Maki or accepting a small fill (SBI has no minimum) may make more sense.</li>
</ul>



BASE Inc (4477 JP) disclosed a "difference of views" with Maki-san, who says management ignored the cost of his trading restrictions; he would resume buying from 2 October, targeting over 30%.
With Maki buying at JPY370+, shares trading above terms and the 25% listing floor limiting supply, SBI faces a shortfall at JPY340, and a bump looks inevitable.
SBI likely needs about JPY420 to beat a potential Maki tender, but negotiating with Maki or accepting a small fill (SBI has no minimum) may make more sense.


BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> has extended its partial tender for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> to 15 October, keeping the price at JPY340; the extension suggests acceptances have been tepid.</li>
<li>SBI may hold firm on price, given its record of not bumping partial offers, such as Shinsei in 2021, and peers' 6% median derating. </li>
<li>However, a bump remains likely: the major shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the extension suggests most minorities are also holding out at JPY340. </li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) has extended its partial tender for BASE Inc (4477 JP) to 15 October, keeping the price at JPY340; the extension suggests acceptances have been tepid.
SBI may hold firm on price, given its record of not bumping partial offers, such as Shinsei in 2021, and peers' 6% median derating. 
However, a bump remains likely: the major shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the extension suggests most minorities are also holding out at JPY340. 


BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Tender Extension Signals a Price Bump Is Needed

Japan

GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. provides credit card transaction services for electronic commerce firms.

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GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In

Maki-san aims for 30%+ via a tender and no longer backs SBI, so SBI's offer can't succeed. SBI either bumps to JPY420–440 or settles for a small...

Arun George

BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

Maki-san is buying BASE again, targeting over 30%. SBI's JPY340 offer will fall short; it likely needs JPY420, but at that price, a deal with Maki...

Arun George

BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Tender Extension Signals a Price Bump Is Needed

SBI extended its BASE tender to 15 October at JPY340, signalling tepid take-up. Despite its partial-offer track record and peer derating, a bump...

Arun George

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GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic - Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float

GMO Internet is the old GMO Ad Partners with a reverse takeover executed as of Jan 1. Float now is low. The company sees it as 1.44%. It's lower...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In

Maki-san aims for 30%+ via a tender and no longer backs SBI, so SBI's offer can't succeed. SBI either bumps to JPY420–440 or settles for a small...

Arun George

BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

Maki-san is buying BASE again, targeting over 30%. SBI's JPY340 offer will fall short; it likely needs JPY420, but at that price, a deal with Maki...

Arun George

BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Tender Extension Signals a Price Bump Is Needed

SBI extended its BASE tender to 15 October at JPY340, signalling tepid take-up. Despite its partial-offer track record and peer derating, a bump...

Arun George