Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It was reported in numerous local media in Korea that FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential accounting fraud. </li>
<li>There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially inflated its sales from 2020 to 2023 to enhance the value of the company prior to its IPO listing. </li>
<li>Given that the regulators are unlikely to make a final decision on this matter until next year, this is likely to be negative on both Kakao Mobility and Kakao Corp. </li>
</ul>


It was reported in numerous local media in Korea that FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential accounting fraud. 
There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially inflated its sales from 2020 to 2023 to enhance the value of the company prior to its IPO listing. 
Given that the regulators are unlikely to make a final decision on this matter until next year, this is likely to be negative on both Kakao Mobility and Kakao Corp. 


Concerns About A Major Accounting Fraud at Kakao Mobility

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li><em><strong>Kakao Corp announced that it plans to sell about 1 trillion won worth of Dunamu shares, representing 6.55% stake. </strong></em></li>
<li>Dunamu is in the process of merging with Naver Financial. Given that Kakao and Naver are arch competitors, Kakao has decided to reduce its stake in Dunamu. </li>
<li>Kakao Corp is trading at P/E of 30.2x in 2026 and 25.1x in 2027 which appear expensive, especially given the company's weak sales growth (single digits annually next three years).  </li>
</ul>


Kakao Corp announced that it plans to sell about 1 trillion won worth of Dunamu shares, representing 6.55% stake. 
Dunamu is in the process of merging with Naver Financial. Given that Kakao and Naver are arch competitors, Kakao has decided to reduce its stake in Dunamu. 
Kakao Corp is trading at P/E of 30.2x in 2026 and 25.1x in 2027 which appear expensive, especially given the company's weak sales growth (single digits annually next three years).  


Kakao Plans to Sell 1 Trillion Won Worth of Dunamu

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (20 June to 4 July 2025).</li>
<li>Kakaopay was the best performing stock in KOSPI in the past two weeks. It could be a key potential beneficiary of the increased use of stablecoin based system in Korea.</li>
<li>The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include S&amp;T Holdings, Samsung Life Insurance, Samsung SDS, Samsung Securities, Hyundai Elevator, SK Hynix, Paradise, Hanwha System, Hanwha Aerospace, and Korea Kolmar. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (20 June to 4 July 2025).
Kakaopay was the best performing stock in KOSPI in the past two weeks. It could be a key potential beneficiary of the increased use of stablecoin based system in Korea.
The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include S&amp;T Holdings, Samsung Life Insurance, Samsung SDS, Samsung Securities, Hyundai Elevator, SK Hynix, Paradise, Hanwha System, Hanwha Aerospace, and Korea Kolmar. 


Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (20 June to 4 July 2025)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

South Korea

Kakao Corp. provides Internet portal services such as news, free e-mail, and leisure information.  The Company also offers cross-platform mobile messaging application that allows users to exchange messages.

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Kakao Corp (035720 KS)

Concerns About A Major Accounting Fraud at Kakao Mobility

FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential, major accounting fraud. There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially...

Douglas Kim

Kakao Plans to Sell 1 Trillion Won Worth of Dunamu

Kakao Corp plans to sell 1 trillion won worth of Dunamu shares, reducing stake due to merger of Dunamu and Naver Financial. Kakao plans to use the...

Douglas Kim

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (20 June to 4 July 2025)

Top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include S&T Holdings, Samsung Life Insurance, Samsung SDS, Samsung Securities, Hyundai Elevator, SK Hynix, Paradise,...

Douglas Kim

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Concerns About A Major Accounting Fraud at Kakao Mobility

FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential, major accounting fraud. There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially...

Douglas Kim

Kakao Plans to Sell 1 Trillion Won Worth of Dunamu

​Kakao Corp plans to sell 1 trillion won worth of Dunamu shares, reducing stake due to merger of Dunamu and Naver Financial. Kakao plans to use the...

Douglas Kim

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (20 June to 4 July 2025)

Top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include S&T Holdings, Samsung Life Insurance, Samsung SDS, Samsung Securities, Hyundai Elevator, SK Hynix, Paradise,...

Douglas Kim

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Kakao Corp plans to sell 1 trillion won worth of Dunamu shares, reducing stake due to merger of Dunamu and Naver Financial. Kakao plans to use the...