Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Brian Kim’s 15-year sentence request looks set to hit Kakao and affiliates — founder risk has always sparked volatility on Kakao, so the sharp market reaction is no surprise.</li>
<li>But locals see odds of lighter or suspended time — if Kakao dumps on headline risk, it could be more entry window than pure downside.</li>
<li>Event-Driven setup: short Kakao vs long Naver for relative value, but into sentencing, odds of lighter time suggest fading any overdone Kakao dump could be the cleaner trade.</li>
</ul>


Brian Kim’s 15-year sentence request looks set to hit Kakao and affiliates — founder risk has always sparked volatility on Kakao, so the sharp market reaction is no surprise.
But locals see odds of lighter or suspended time — if Kakao dumps on headline risk, it could be more entry window than pure downside.
Event-Driven setup: short Kakao vs long Naver for relative value, but into sentencing, odds of lighter time suggest fading any overdone Kakao dump could be the cleaner trade.


Brian Kim’s 15-Year Hit: Trading Kakao Through the Founder Risk

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There has been a big crypto money move in Korea. Market cap of crypto currencies held in crypto exchanges in Korea nearly doubled from October to November 2024. </li>
<li>We discuss 8 major listed companies in Korea that are major beneficiaries (directly and indirectly) of this big move into crypto currencies in Korea. </li>
<li>Some of the major beneficiaries include Kakao Corp, KT Corp, Hanwha Securities, Woori Technology Investment, and Vidente.</li>
</ul>


There has been a big crypto money move in Korea. Market cap of crypto currencies held in crypto exchanges in Korea nearly doubled from October to November 2024. 
We discuss 8 major listed companies in Korea that are major beneficiaries (directly and indirectly) of this big move into crypto currencies in Korea. 
Some of the major beneficiaries include Kakao Corp, KT Corp, Hanwha Securities, Woori Technology Investment, and Vidente.


Big Crypto Money Move in Korea - Impact on Key Listed Korean Companies

<ul>
<li>The key point is Saturday—watch if eight ruling party lawmakers defect. Hahn Dong-hoon may push for an early election, with 15 loyalists backing him, so it’s definitely possible.</li>
<li>I’d bet on the ruling party leader pivoting, accepting impeachment, and pushing for an early election. Time to scout beneficiaries and set up an aggressive trading play.</li>
<li>Short-Term, I’m eyeing Kakao affiliates, under-the-radar IT stocks, and those likely to benefit from corporate governance changes. Low birth rate-related sectors are also set for strong upside.</li>
</ul>


The key point is Saturday—watch if eight ruling party lawmakers defect. Hahn Dong-hoon may push for an early election, with 15 loyalists backing him, so it’s definitely possible.
I’d bet on the ruling party leader pivoting, accepting impeachment, and pushing for an early election. Time to scout beneficiaries and set up an aggressive trading play.
Short-Term, I’m eyeing Kakao affiliates, under-the-radar IT stocks, and those likely to benefit from corporate governance changes. Low birth rate-related sectors are also set for strong upside.


Latest Scoop on President Yoon’s Impeachment Motion and How to Play It in the Market

<ul>
<li>It was reported in numerous local media in Korea that FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential accounting fraud. </li>
<li>There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially inflated its sales from 2020 to 2023 to enhance the value of the company prior to its IPO listing. </li>
<li>Given that the regulators are unlikely to make a final decision on this matter until next year, this is likely to be negative on both Kakao Mobility and Kakao Corp. </li>
</ul>


It was reported in numerous local media in Korea that FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential accounting fraud. 
There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially inflated its sales from 2020 to 2023 to enhance the value of the company prior to its IPO listing. 
Given that the regulators are unlikely to make a final decision on this matter until next year, this is likely to be negative on both Kakao Mobility and Kakao Corp. 


Concerns About A Major Accounting Fraud at Kakao Mobility

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Dec 12th. The aggregated short interest was USD12.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in SANIL ELECTRIC, Hanwha Vision, kakaopay, Samsung F&amp;M Insurance, Alteogen.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Dec 12th. The aggregated short interest was USD12.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in SANIL ELECTRIC, Hanwha Vision, kakaopay, Samsung F&amp;M Insurance, Alteogen.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 12th): SANIL ELECTRIC, Hanwha Vision, Kakaopay, Samsung F&M Insurance

South Korea

Kakao Corp. provides Internet portal services such as news, free e-mail, and leisure information.  The Company also offers cross-platform mobile messaging application that allows users to exchange messages.

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Kakao Corp (035720 KS)

Brian Kim’s 15-Year Hit: Trading Kakao Through the Founder Risk

Chatter in the local market has OpenAI eyeing a Kakao stake. Tied to Kim Beom‑su’s legal overhang, traders speculate he could offload part of his...

Sanghyun Park

Big Crypto Money Move in Korea - Impact on Key Listed Korean Companies

Kakao Corp (035720 KS) is selling up to 430 billion won worth of SK Square (402340 KS) in a block deal sale. The number of shares offered in the...

Douglas Kim

Latest Scoop on President Yoon’s Impeachment Motion and How to Play It in the Market

Yoon’s impeachment vote is locked in for Saturday at 7 PM, and today’s market? Total whiplash. The ruling party’s boycott plan throws odds back...

Sanghyun Park

Concerns About A Major Accounting Fraud at Kakao Mobility

FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential, major accounting fraud. There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially...

Douglas Kim

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 12th): SANIL ELECTRIC, Hanwha Vision, Kakaopay, Samsung F&M Insurance

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in SANIL ELECTRIC, Hanwha Vision, kakaopay, Samsung...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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