Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a> as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. 

ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>'s (KE) stock.</li>
<li>KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)'s (KE) stock.
KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kokusai Electric Placement - Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,593m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu Motors, Skylark, Fujikura, Nintendo, Mcdonald's.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,593m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu Motors, Skylark, Fujikura, Nintendo, Mcdonald's.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 13th): Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,477m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Softbank, Toyota Motor, Skylark, Keyence, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,477m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Softbank, Toyota Motor, Skylark, Keyence, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 6th): Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">TRYT (9164 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group / (CG US)</a> at JPY880, a 34.6% premium to last close and a 135.3% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Despite 26.7% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>The chance of a competing proposal is low, as Carlyle’s offer was the highest in the auction. EQT has provided an irrevocable (60.00% ownership ratio), which ensures a done deal.  </li>
</ul>



TRYT (9164 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle Group / (CG US) at JPY880, a 34.6% premium to last close and a 135.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
Despite 26.7% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
The chance of a competing proposal is low, as Carlyle’s offer was the highest in the auction. EQT has provided an irrevocable (60.00% ownership ratio), which ensures a done deal.  


Tryt (9164 JP): Carlyle’s JPY880 Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Japan

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

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Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

Kokusai Electric Placement - Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)'s (KE) stock.

Sumeet Singh

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 13th): Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 6th): Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Sbi Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), Toyota...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tryt (9164 JP): Carlyle’s JPY880 Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Kudos to EQT as an auction process resulted in a higher-than-expected offer. An attractive offer and EQT's irrevocable ensure a done deal.

Arun George

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