Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mandarin Oriental International / Event-Driven

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

<ul>
<li>Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> is seeking to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Shareholder%20Circular.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=867134" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Doc is now out</a> for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>'s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. </li>
</ul>


Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to privatise Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. 
The Scheme Doc is now out for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)'s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. 


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson's Offer

<ul>
<li>It's fair bet <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Matheson (JM SP)</a> opted for a Scheme for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> to avoid a repeat of the appraisal rights afforded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic (JS SP)</a>'s dissentient shareholders.</li>
<li>On <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU/LNW US)</a> giving up its US listing, short the Aussie line at A$124+ or the US line at US$79+. Expect more pressure early this week. </li>
<li>Qatar Airways books a loss on its eight-yar investment as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> moves to take out its 9.57% stake. </li>
</ul>


It's fair bet Matheson (JM SP) opted for a Scheme for Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) to avoid a repeat of the appraisal rights afforded Jardine Strategic (JS SP)'s dissentient shareholders.
On Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU/LNW US) giving up its US listing, short the Aussie line at A$124+ or the US line at US$79+. Expect more pressure early this week. 
Qatar Airways books a loss on its eight-yar investment as Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) moves to take out its 9.57% stake. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Mandarin Oriental, Light & Wonder, Cathay Pacific, DeNA

<ul>
<li>I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Surprisingly, no new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. </li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-meilan-international-airport-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12545:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/restaurant-brands-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11891:1" rel="noopener">Restaurant Brands (RBD NZ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Surprisingly, no new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. 
Key updates/news also took place on: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), and Restaurant Brands (RBD NZ).


Mostly Asia-Pac M&A: Mayne Pharma, Meilan Airport, ReNew Energy Global, Mandom, Restaurant Brands

Mid-market focused investment bank within SE Asia, Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

Evolve Capital Research

Mid-market focused investment bank within SE Asia

Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soon-hock-enterprise-holding-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45970:1" rel="noopener">Soon Hock Enterprise Holding (SHOCK SP)</a> is an established real estate developer that undertakes property development and property investment in Singapore.</li>
<li>The Group’s management has been involved in the launch of more than 1,200 units of strata-titled industrial properties in Singapore, achieving a total Gross Development Value (GDV) of S$1bn.</li>
<li>We initiate coverage on Soon Hock Enterprise with a RNAV-based TP of S$0.74, representing an upside of 27.6%.</li>
</ul>



Soon Hock Enterprise Holding (SHOCK SP) is an established real estate developer that undertakes property development and property investment in Singapore.
The Group’s management has been involved in the launch of more than 1,200 units of strata-titled industrial properties in Singapore, achieving a total Gross Development Value (GDV) of S$1bn.
We initiate coverage on Soon Hock Enterprise with a RNAV-based TP of S$0.74, representing an upside of 27.6%.


Soon Hock Enterprise Initiation - Established Player with Consistent Execution

<ul>
<li>Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> announced on the 17th October an Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a>'s minorities at US$3.35/share.</li>
<li>This is a clean, full, "dull" Offer. And MAND is trading super tight to terms at ~2.1% gross, with possible payment (my estimate) late Feb 2026.</li>
<li>Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND's minorities will set Matheson back ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn less for Matheson's stub ops. </li>
</ul>


Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) announced on the 17th October an Offer for Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)'s minorities at US$3.35/share.
This is a clean, full, "dull" Offer. And MAND is trading super tight to terms at ~2.1% gross, with possible payment (my estimate) late Feb 2026.
Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND's minorities will set Matheson back ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn less for Matheson's stub ops. 


Jardine Matheson's Underperformance Post Mandarin Offer

Bermuda

Jardine Strategic is an investment holding company that manages long-term strategic interests in a diversified portfolio of market-leading businesses, primarily focused on Asia. Its principal investments span sectors such as property, retail, hospitality, motor vehicles, engineering, and financial services. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

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Jardine Strategic (JDSHF US)

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson's Offer

Clean, full Offer. MAND is trading around ~2.1%/10.8% gross/annualised, assuming late Jan 2026 payment. Expect more accretion/recycling to come in...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Mandarin Oriental, Light & Wonder, Cathay Pacific, DeNA

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Mostly Asia-Pac M&A: Mayne Pharma, Meilan Airport, ReNew Energy Global, Mandom, Restaurant Brands

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Soon Hock Enterprise Initiation - Established Player with Consistent Execution

Soon Hock Enterprise Holding (SHOCK SP) is an established real estate developer that undertakes property development and property investment in...

Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

Jardine Matheson's Underperformance Post Mandarin Offer

Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND minorities will cost Matheson ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn...

David Blennerhassett

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