AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q2 revenue of $64.73 billion and EPS of $2.95 surpassed expectations of $64.39 billion and $2.93, respectively. Intelligent Cloud revenue reached $28.52 billion but below analysts' $28.68 billion expectation. </li>
<li>Activision acquisition boosted revenue by 3 points but cut EPS by $0.06 due to lower operating income.</li>
<li>While Microsoft's core cloud business slowed, it increased capex significantly. Uncertain GenAI monetization might shift wealth from Microsoft shareholders to Nvidia shareholders.</li>
</ul>


Q2 revenue of $64.73 billion and EPS of $2.95 surpassed expectations of $64.39 billion and $2.93, respectively. Intelligent Cloud revenue reached $28.52 billion but below analysts' $28.68 billion expectation. 
Activision acquisition boosted revenue by 3 points but cut EPS by $0.06 due to lower operating income.
While Microsoft's core cloud business slowed, it increased capex significantly. Uncertain GenAI monetization might shift wealth from Microsoft shareholders to Nvidia shareholders.


Microsoft’s Strong Q2: Solid Revenue and Earnings Growth Despite Cloud Concerns

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Microsoft reported (31 Jul HKT) inline 4QFY24 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$64.7bn, up 15% YoY (3QFY24: +17% YoY; 4QFY23: +8% YoY), in line with Bloomberg consensus, thanks to better-than-expected revenue generation from more personal computing (MPC) segment, which offsets the slightly lowerthan-expected intelligent cloud (IC) revenue due to slightly slower-thanexpected growth in a few European regions on non-AI consumption; quarterly net income was up 9.7% YoY to US$22.0bn, also in line with consensus estimates.</li><li>For the full year, total revenue reached US$245.1bn, up 16% YoY, and net income was RMB88.1bn, up 22% YoY.</li><li>Management highlighted that AI-related cloud services demand remained higher than Microsoft’s capacity, and it expects an increase in capex for FY25 compared to that in FY24. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Microsoft reported (31 Jul HKT) inline 4QFY24 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$64.7bn, up 15% YoY (3QFY24: +17% YoY; 4QFY23: +8% YoY), in line with Bloomberg consensus, thanks to better-than-expected revenue generation from more personal computing (MPC) segment, which offsets the slightly lowerthan-expected intelligent cloud (IC) revenue due to slightly slower-thanexpected growth in a few European regions on non-AI consumption; quarterly net income was up 9.7% YoY to US$22.0bn, also in line with consensus estimates.For the full year, total revenue reached US$245.1bn, up 16% YoY, and net income was RMB88.1bn, up 22% YoY.Management highlighted that AI-related cloud services demand remained higher than Microsoft’s capacity, and it expects an increase in capex for FY25 compared to that in FY24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Results Inline; AI Demand Remains Strong and Unmet

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BZ US: Enterprises’ Recruitment Confidence Shows Slight Recovery in July(+)</li>
<li>3690HK: Meituan and Restaurant Brands Collaborate to Establish Take-out Satellite Stores, Further Penetrating Offline Catering in China.(+)</li>
<li>PDD US/BABA US /SHEIN/SE US: Hundreds of Temu merchants protest at Guangzhou headquarters (-/+/+)</li>
</ul>


BZ US: Enterprises’ Recruitment Confidence Shows Slight Recovery in July(+)
3690HK: Meituan and Restaurant Brands Collaborate to Establish Take-out Satellite Stores, Further Penetrating Offline Catering in China.(+)
PDD US/BABA US /SHEIN/SE US: Hundreds of Temu merchants protest at Guangzhou headquarters (-/+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BZ US/3690HK/PDD US/BABA US/SE US/JD US/700HK/NTES US/BIDU/MSFT/TCOM

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>PC Maker Shares Under Pressure -- PC makers' share prices fell by mid-to-high single digits during July. However, pure PC exposure outperformed as shown by HPQ's gain during the month.</li>
<li>Latest PC Industry Data is Promising -- Latest IDC data shows that global PC shipments increased 3% YoY in 2Q24, and are up 5% YoY ex-China.</li>
<li>Microsoft &amp; Taiwan PC Maker Earnings Ahead -- Microsoft reports July 30th U.S. time. We expect Taiwan PC makers to report earnings within the first two weeks of August.</li>
</ul>


PC Maker Shares Under Pressure -- PC makers' share prices fell by mid-to-high single digits during July. However, pure PC exposure outperformed as shown by HPQ's gain during the month.
Latest PC Industry Data is Promising -- Latest IDC data shows that global PC shipments increased 3% YoY in 2Q24, and are up 5% YoY ex-China.
Microsoft &amp; Taiwan PC Maker Earnings Ahead -- Microsoft reports July 30th U.S. time. We expect Taiwan PC makers to report earnings within the first two weeks of August.


PC Monitor: MSFT Results Imminent; Look for Copilot Progress; Taiwan PC Makers Show Healthy Growth

<ul>
<li>10-15% Market Share for Server Chassis -- Chenbro is one of the leading producers of server chassis in the world.</li>
<li>Key Nvidia Development Partner -- Chenbro produces servers for most major data center names including AWS and China's BAT, as well as for Nvidia servers and architecture.</li>
<li>New Server Market Color to Be Released Soon -- The company is well positioned to expand capacity as the market expands and is expected to release 2Q24E earnings in early-August.</li>
</ul>


10-15% Market Share for Server Chassis -- Chenbro is one of the leading producers of server chassis in the world.
Key Nvidia Development Partner -- Chenbro produces servers for most major data center names including AWS and China's BAT, as well as for Nvidia servers and architecture.
New Server Market Color to Be Released Soon -- The company is well positioned to expand capacity as the market expands and is expected to release 2Q24E earnings in early-August.


TechChain Insights: Visit with Nvidia Server Chassis Producer Chenbro; A Ubiquitous Supplier

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

Microsoft’s Strong Q2: Solid Revenue and Earnings Growth Despite Cloud Concerns

Microsoft reported $64.73B in Q2 revenue, exceeding expectations. Annual revenue hit $245B, a 15% YoY increase. EPS of $2.95 beat forecasts, yet...

Mint Finance

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Results Inline; AI Demand Remains Strong and Unmet

Microsoft reported (31 Jul HKT) inline 4QFY24 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$64.7bn, up 15% YoY (3QFY24: +17% YoY

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BZ US/3690HK/PDD US/BABA US/SE US/JD US/700HK/NTES US/BIDU/MSFT/TCOM

Enterprises in the US show slight recovery in recruitment confidence, Meituan and Restaurant Brands collaborate to establish take-out satellite...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

PC Monitor: MSFT Results Imminent; Look for Copilot Progress; Taiwan PC Makers Show Healthy Growth

PC makers' shares fell in July, but pure PC exposure like HPQ outperformed. Global PC shipments increased 3% YoY in 2Q24, with Microsoft and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights: Visit with Nvidia Server Chassis Producer Chenbro; A Ubiquitous Supplier

Chenbro holds 10-15% market share in server chassis, serving major data center names like AWS and Nvidia, with new server market color to be...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Microsoft’s Strong Q2: Solid Revenue and Earnings Growth Despite Cloud Concerns

Microsoft reported $64.73B in Q2 revenue, exceeding expectations. Annual revenue hit $245B, a 15% YoY increase. EPS of $2.95 beat forecasts, yet...

Mint Finance

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Results Inline; AI Demand Remains Strong and Unmet

Microsoft reported (31 Jul HKT) inline 4QFY24 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$64.7bn, up 15% YoY (3QFY24: +17% YoY

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BZ US/3690HK/PDD US/BABA US/SE US/JD US/700HK/NTES US/BIDU/MSFT/TCOM

​Enterprises in the US show slight recovery in recruitment confidence, Meituan and Restaurant Brands collaborate to establish take-out satellite...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

PC Monitor: MSFT Results Imminent; Look for Copilot Progress; Taiwan PC Makers Show Healthy Growth

​PC makers' shares fell in July, but pure PC exposure like HPQ outperformed. Global PC shipments increased 3% YoY in 2Q24, with Microsoft and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights: Visit with Nvidia Server Chassis Producer Chenbro; A Ubiquitous Supplier

​Chenbro holds 10-15% market share in server chassis, serving major data center names like AWS and Nvidia, with new server market color to be...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Enterprises in the US show slight recovery in recruitment confidence, Meituan and Restaurant Brands collaborate to establish take-out satellite...

PC makers' shares fell in July, but pure PC exposure like HPQ outperformed. Global PC shipments increased 3% YoY in 2Q24, with Microsoft and...

Chenbro holds 10-15% market share in server chassis, serving major data center names like AWS and Nvidia, with new server market color to be...