Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last couple of days have seen the TWD increase value against the USD extremely sharply. This has caused the Shin Kong/Taishin risk arb spread to widen. </li>
<li>There is no expectation that the merger will be delayed, but the change in USDTWD rate introduces a new dynamic into the ShinKong-as-Taishin-vs Peers trade.</li>
<li>Careful consideration of this trade going forward is worthwhile. What may have been the better trade may no longer be the better trade.</li>
</ul>


The last couple of days have seen the TWD increase value against the USD extremely sharply. This has caused the Shin Kong/Taishin risk arb spread to widen. 
There is no expectation that the merger will be delayed, but the change in USDTWD rate introduces a new dynamic into the ShinKong-as-Taishin-vs Peers trade.
Careful consideration of this trade going forward is worthwhile. What may have been the better trade may no longer be the better trade.


ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) - Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD944.4bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,396mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc Financial, Mediatek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD944.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,396mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc Financial, Mediatek.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 2nd): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc Financial

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Four new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ainsworth-game-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:957:1" rel="noopener">Ainsworth Game (AGI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-meilan-international-airport-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12545:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK)</a>, and of course, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dickson-concepts-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5052:1" rel="noopener">Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: Ainsworth Game (AGI AU), Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), and of course, Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), and Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Ainsworth Game, Bright Smart, PointsBet, Dickson Concepts, Canvest, Shibaura

<ul>
<li>For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>'s potential Offer.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s potential Offer.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated holding worth USD845.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD721mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC (2330 TT).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated holding worth USD845.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD721mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC (2330 TT).


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 25th): TSMC

Taiwan

Shin Kong Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides traditional life, health, group and accident insurance products and services, as well as acts as a broker, dealer and underwriter for financial securities.

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Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)

ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) - Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher

For months, Shin Kong and Taishin gained ground vs Peers after underperforming to a 10-year relative low. Now, USDTWD FX volatility and strength...

Travis Lundy

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 2nd): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision, Ctbc...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Ainsworth Game, Bright Smart, PointsBet, Dickson Concepts, Canvest, Shibaura

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For the month of April, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 25th): TSMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week. We estimate that weekly foreign flows to be inflows of USD721m and highlighted foreign...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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