Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> merger is a done deal.  The key risk, as with<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a>'s Offer, is one of timing.</li>
<li>IF you are an arbitrageur,  Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> vs A Basket of FHC Peers (not including Taishin).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a>'s 46.2% share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>at delisting last year was worth ~US$1.25bn. It is now potentially worth ~US$3.21bn. </li>
</ul>


The Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)/Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) merger is a done deal.  The key risk, as withTCM (570 HK)'s Offer, is one of timing.
IF you are an arbitrageur,  Buy Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) vs A Basket of FHC Peers (not including Taishin).

First Pacific Co (142 HK)'s 46.2% share of Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)at delisting last year was worth ~US$1.25bn. It is now potentially worth ~US$3.21bn. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Guotai/Haitong, Shin Kong, China Conch Ventures, First Pac, Zhejiang E'way

<ul>
<li>I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a>'s tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities  (H) (6837 HK)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-smiles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2891:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals discussed this week: Rio Tinto (RIO AU)'s tilt for Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), and the Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)/Haitong Securities  (H) (6837 HK) merger.
Key updates took place on: Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) and Korea Zinc (010130 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Rio/Arcadium, Seven & I, Pacific Smiles, China TCM, Korea Zinc

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD976.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,371mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, Mediatek, Quanta Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD976.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,371mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, Mediatek, Quanta Computer.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics

Travis Lundy

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)</a> has raised its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ctbc-financial-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:436:1" rel="noopener">CTBC Financial Holding (2891 TT)</a> has dropped its bid after FSC rejection.</li>
<li>Shin Kong's Board approved the revised (25% higher) Taishin bid. Shares in Shin Kong fell sharply on the FSC rejection of the CTBC bid. </li>
<li>Taishin's bid clearly has governance/related party issues and a significant portion of the "non-Taishin" reps on the Shin Kong Board had issues. October 9th passage is not a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has raised its bid for Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and CTBC Financial Holding (2891 TT) has dropped its bid after FSC rejection.
Shin Kong's Board approved the revised (25% higher) Taishin bid. Shares in Shin Kong fell sharply on the FSC rejection of the CTBC bid. 
Taishin's bid clearly has governance/related party issues and a significant portion of the "non-Taishin" reps on the Shin Kong Board had issues. October 9th passage is not a done deal. 


Shin Kong (2888 TT) Deal - Activism, Proxy Advice, Proxy Fight, Voting Risk, and Discounts

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin</a>'s bid clearly has governance/related party issues and a significant portion of the "non-Taishin" reps on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong</a> Board had issues. October 9th passage is not a done deal.</li>
<li>KKR's "bid" for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASMPT (522 HK)</a> has all the hallmarks of the "approach" by PAG last year. Which came to nought. From a regulatory standpoint, it's unlikely to get up.</li>
<li>Never a dull moment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a>. The Choi family makes Offers for KZ and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/young-poong-precision-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16188:1" rel="noopener">Young Poong Precision (036560 KS)</a> (YPP). Then MBK counters for both.</li>
</ul>



Taishin's bid clearly has governance/related party issues and a significant portion of the "non-Taishin" reps on the Shin Kong Board had issues. October 9th passage is not a done deal.
KKR's "bid" for ASMPT (522 HK) has all the hallmarks of the "approach" by PAG last year. Which came to nought. From a regulatory standpoint, it's unlikely to get up.
Never a dull moment for Korea Zinc (010130 KS). The Choi family makes Offers for KZ and Young Poong Precision (036560 KS) (YPP). Then MBK counters for both.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin, ASMPT, Korea Zinc/Young Poong Precision, Sigma Health

Taiwan

Shin Kong Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides traditional life, health, group and accident insurance products and services, as well as acts as a broker, dealer and underwriter for financial securities.

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Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Guotai/Haitong, Shin Kong, China Conch Ventures, First Pac, Zhejiang E'way

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Rio/Arcadium, Seven & I, Pacific Smiles, China TCM, Korea Zinc

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shin Kong (2888 TT) Deal - Activism, Proxy Advice, Proxy Fight, Voting Risk, and Discounts

Shin Kong & Taishin EGMs are Weds 9 Oct. Both firms are offering gifts to attend. Worth watching CTBC meeting 11 Oct too. Proxy solicitation...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin, ASMPT, Korea Zinc/Young Poong Precision, Sigma Health

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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