Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
HK$1.38/Share. That's the takeaway as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> enters an SPA to offload its 78.7% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art (6808 HK)</a> at <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0101/2025010100067.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HK$1.38/share</a>, a 44.4% discount to last close.</li>
<li>The buyer, Paragon Shine, an entity under Chinese PE outfit DCP Capital, is paying ~HK$12.3bn compared to BABA's HK$28.1bn purchase of a 51% stake in October 2020.</li>
<li>Should the SPA complete, an unconditional MGO is triggered. Minorities tendering can receive up to HK$1.58/share. But the question is: why would BABA be cashing out at this price?</li>
</ul>



HK$1.38/Share. That's the takeaway as Alibaba Group (9988 HK) enters an SPA to offload its 78.7% stake in Sun Art (6808 HK) at HK$1.38/share, a 44.4% discount to last close.
The buyer, Paragon Shine, an entity under Chinese PE outfit DCP Capital, is paying ~HK$12.3bn compared to BABA's HK$28.1bn purchase of a 51% stake in October 2020.
Should the SPA complete, an unconditional MGO is triggered. Minorities tendering can receive up to HK$1.58/share. But the question is: why would BABA be cashing out at this price?


Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): BABA Takes Massive Hit After Inking SPA @ HK$1.38

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see eight ADDs and six DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 7th March 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see eight ADDs and six DELs for ASX 300.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 7th March 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Final Expectations; Momentum Still Intact

<ul>
<li>I tally 58 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Four new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2217 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19415:1" rel="noopener">PEC Ltd. (PEC SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/proto-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2511:1" rel="noopener">Proto Corp (4298 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 58 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deals discussed this week: Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Tam Jai International (2217 HK), and PEC Ltd. (PEC SP).
Key updates/news took place on: Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK),Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), and Proto Corp (4298 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Domain Holdings, Mayne Pharma, Tam Jai, PEC Ltd, Canvest, Fuji Soft, Proto

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Santos, A2 Milk Company, Nextdc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Santos, A2 Milk Company, Nextdc.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates

China National Building Material / Event-Driven

China National Building Material (3323 HK)

<ul>
<li>On the 6th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a> (CNBM), China's leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>This elevated CNBM's parent's stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating  a whitewash waiver so the parent would not be obliged to make a full blown offer.  </li>
<li>Independent H-shareholder overwhelmingly approved the waiver yesterday, the 19th February. Tendering closes on the 5th March. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. I'm estimating at least 35%. The Offer is now unconditional.</li>
</ul>


On the 6th December 2024, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), China's leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
This elevated CNBM's parent's stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating  a whitewash waiver so the parent would not be obliged to make a full blown offer.  
Independent H-shareholder overwhelmingly approved the waiver yesterday, the 19th February. Tendering closes on the 5th March. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. I'm estimating at least 35%. The Offer is now unconditional.


CNBM (3323 HK): Whitewash Waiver Secured. Next Is The Proration

Australia

Sigma Healthcare Limited wholesales and distributes pharmaceutical products. The Company offers prescription, over-the-counter, and generic drugs. Sigma Healthcare serves customers in Australia.

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Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): BABA Takes Massive Hit After Inking SPA @ HK$1.38

The SPA completed on the 27th Feb, triggering the MGO. Composite Doc to be dispatched on or before the 6th Mar. Under the terms of the SPA, an...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Final Expectations; Momentum Still Intact

The reference period for ASX Mar25 review rankings ended last week. All expected ADDs and DELs mentioned in this insight are our final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Domain Holdings, Mayne Pharma, Tam Jai, PEC Ltd, Canvest, Fuji Soft, Proto

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CNBM (3323 HK): Whitewash Waiver Secured. Next Is The Proration

I'm inclined to simply short outright here, if I had guaranteed take-no-action borrow. Especially as the price closes in on the tender price, and...

David Blennerhassett

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