Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).</li>
<li>In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.</li>
<li>This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a> (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. </li>
</ul>


In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. 


[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting - A VERY BIG DEAL

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ibiden is transitioning from a cyclical electronics supplier to a core AI infrastructure enabler, with Nvidia-linked package substrates at the heart of its growth strategy.</li>
<li>Management expects AI substrate demand to nearly double in FY25 and is targeting a 150% production increase by 2027, underpinned by the Ono plant ramp from next month.</li>
<li>Despite ~18–19% EPS/EBITDA CAGR through FY27 and margins comparable to high-premium peers, Ibiden still trades at mid-tier multiples (21× forward P/E, ~6× EV/EBITDA), leaving scope for re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Ibiden is transitioning from a cyclical electronics supplier to a core AI infrastructure enabler, with Nvidia-linked package substrates at the heart of its growth strategy.
Management expects AI substrate demand to nearly double in FY25 and is targeting a 150% production increase by 2027, underpinned by the Ono plant ramp from next month.
Despite ~18–19% EPS/EBITDA CAGR through FY27 and margins comparable to high-premium peers, Ibiden still trades at mid-tier multiples (21× forward P/E, ~6× EV/EBITDA), leaving scope for re-rating.


Ibiden: From Cyclical Supplier to Core AI Infrastructure Enabler

<ul>
<li>Results: Q1 FY25 sales grew +10.5% YoY with OP surging +56%, led by AI/data-center substrate demand and margin gains.</li>
<li>Earnings Upgrade &amp; Outlook: FY25–27 EPS/EBITDA raised 9–12% on stronger substrates and resilient ceramics, implying ~18–19% CAGR ahead.</li>
<li>Valuations: Trading at 21× FY25E P/E and 5.9× EV/EBITDA, Ibiden offers structural growth at compressed multiples versus AI peers.</li>
</ul>


Results: Q1 FY25 sales grew +10.5% YoY with OP surging +56%, led by AI/data-center substrate demand and margin gains.
Earnings Upgrade &amp; Outlook: FY25–27 EPS/EBITDA raised 9–12% on stronger substrates and resilient ceramics, implying ~18–19% CAGR ahead.
Valuations: Trading at 21× FY25E P/E and 5.9× EV/EBITDA, Ibiden offers structural growth at compressed multiples versus AI peers.


Ibiden Q1 FY25: Strong Beat, Upgraded Outlook, Attractive Valuation

<ul>
<li>Over FY21–25, IBIDEN has delivered strong revenue and profit growth, with operating income rising ~44% and EPS growing ~34% despite cyclical pressures.</li>
<li>The company commands a dominant ~70–85% market share in AI/server IC substrates, led by Nvidia demand, and is expanding capacity at Ono and Gama plants to sustain leadership.</li>
<li>With a 17–21% EPS CAGR forecast and trading at ~26× P/E—well below high-growth peers—IBIDEN offers a compelling blend of quality growth and relative valuation comfort.</li>
</ul>


Over FY21–25, IBIDEN has delivered strong revenue and profit growth, with operating income rising ~44% and EPS growing ~34% despite cyclical pressures.
The company commands a dominant ~70–85% market share in AI/server IC substrates, led by Nvidia demand, and is expanding capacity at Ono and Gama plants to sustain leadership.
With a 17–21% EPS CAGR forecast and trading at ~26× P/E—well below high-growth peers—IBIDEN offers a compelling blend of quality growth and relative valuation comfort.


IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

<ul>
<li>2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. </li>
<li>An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.</li>
</ul>


2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.


Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting - A VERY BIG DEAL

Nidec's accounting issues mean it gets the boot from TOPIX + Nikkei 225 in quick succession. That's 15% of TSO and ¥400bn to sell between 30 Oct...

Travis Lundy

Ibiden: From Cyclical Supplier to Core AI Infrastructure Enabler

Ibiden is shifting to AI infrastructure with Nvidia-linked substrates, aiming for production increase and potential re-rating despite current mid...

Rahul Jain

Ibiden Q1 FY25: Strong Beat, Upgraded Outlook, Attractive Valuation

Ibiden's strong Q1 performance driven by AI/data-center demand leads to earnings upgrade and optimistic outlook, offering growth potential at...

Rahul Jain

IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside

IBIDEN shows strong revenue and profit growth, dominating AI/server IC substrate market with room for expansion, offering quality growth at a...

Rahul Jain

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

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52-week Range

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[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting - A VERY BIG DEAL

Nidec's accounting issues mean it gets the boot from TOPIX + Nikkei 225 in quick succession. That's 15% of TSO and ¥400bn to sell between 30 Oct...

Travis Lundy

Ibiden: From Cyclical Supplier to Core AI Infrastructure Enabler

​Ibiden is shifting to AI infrastructure with Nvidia-linked substrates, aiming for production increase and potential re-rating despite current mid...

Rahul Jain

Ibiden Q1 FY25: Strong Beat, Upgraded Outlook, Attractive Valuation

​Ibiden's strong Q1 performance driven by AI/data-center demand leads to earnings upgrade and optimistic outlook, offering growth potential at...

Rahul Jain

IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside

​IBIDEN shows strong revenue and profit growth, dominating AI/server IC substrate market with room for expansion, offering quality growth at a...

Rahul Jain

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers​ creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Ibiden is shifting to AI infrastructure with Nvidia-linked substrates, aiming for production increase and potential re-rating despite current mid...

Ibiden's strong Q1 performance driven by AI/data-center demand leads to earnings upgrade and optimistic outlook, offering growth potential at...

IBIDEN shows strong revenue and profit growth, dominating AI/server IC substrate market with room for expansion, offering quality growth at a...

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...