Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It’s all about Server CPU. Demand is boosted by AI Inference &amp; Agentic, tightness supports price hikes, revenue growth is improving, margins improving. Server CPU is the driver of 2026-27.</li>
<li>Some downside risk to PC demand (Memory prices). It’s a bit better on the Foundry side, but still very large losses that require multiple quarters of improvement.</li>
<li>Bullish forecasts. Consensus EPS for '28 is $1.7. I can get to $5, Intel is trading at 17x '28 EPS. NVDA at 14.5 FY29 EPS, TSM at 13.6x 2028 EPS. </li>
</ul>


It’s all about Server CPU. Demand is boosted by AI Inference &amp; Agentic, tightness supports price hikes, revenue growth is improving, margins improving. Server CPU is the driver of 2026-27.
Some downside risk to PC demand (Memory prices). It’s a bit better on the Foundry side, but still very large losses that require multiple quarters of improvement.
Bullish forecasts. Consensus EPS for '28 is $1.7. I can get to $5, Intel is trading at 17x '28 EPS. NVDA at 14.5 FY29 EPS, TSM at 13.6x 2028 EPS. 


Intel. It’s a Lot Better Thanks to Server CPU Demand. Let’s Look at Very Bullish Forecasts

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Intel reported Q126 revenue of $13.6 billion, $1.4 billion above the midpoint of guidance, and $1.3 billion above Street consensus of $12.3 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.29, versus break-even guidance. </li>
<li>The company is experiencing multiple tailwinds from insatiable CPU demand, slowly rising 18A yields, progress on 14A and a new phenomenon, LTAs with strategic customers like Google. That's new!</li>
<li>Intel's share price is soaring in after hours trading, currently up ~22%. Is this a turning point for Intel's resurgence? Let's see...</li>
</ul>


Intel reported Q126 revenue of $13.6 billion, $1.4 billion above the midpoint of guidance, and $1.3 billion above Street consensus of $12.3 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.29, versus break-even guidance. 
The company is experiencing multiple tailwinds from insatiable CPU demand, slowly rising 18A yields, progress on 14A and a new phenomenon, LTAs with strategic customers like Google. That's new!
Intel's share price is soaring in after hours trading, currently up ~22%. Is this a turning point for Intel's resurgence? Let's see...


Intel Q126. Soaring On Multiple Tailwinds

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>The 20% price hikes are supported by a genuine collapse in global CPU availability, with Raptor Lake paralysing the industrial PC market and forcing buyers into a hard bottleneck.</li>
<li>Intel’s ability to monetize this pricing leverage hinges entirely on 18A yields. Recent 65% yield milestones on Panther Lake provide a credible baseline for relief.</li>
<li>Intel is also aggressively ramping equipment orders for 14A and EMIB to capitalize on the shortage, shifting its foundry from option value to an actual booking story.</li>
</ul>


The 20% price hikes are supported by a genuine collapse in global CPU availability, with Raptor Lake paralysing the industrial PC market and forcing buyers into a hard bottleneck.
Intel’s ability to monetize this pricing leverage hinges entirely on 18A yields. Recent 65% yield milestones on Panther Lake provide a credible baseline for relief.
Intel is also aggressively ramping equipment orders for 14A and EMIB to capitalize on the shortage, shifting its foundry from option value to an actual booking story.


Intel Q1 Checkpoint: 18A Metrics, Foundry Equipment Ramps, and Options Market Positioning

<ul>
<li>Bernstein is still analysing Intel as a volume and share story, but the economics have shifted toward capacity, pricing power, and constrained supply.</li>
<li>Across PCs and data centres, Intel is increasingly selling capacity-limited, high-ASP products  into an environment of long-term contracts, tight packaging, and rising infrastructure costs.</li>
<li>With fabs filling, Panther Lake well received, and competitors spending tens of billions to retain dominance, Intel’s manufacturing footprint is starting to translate into real financial leverage.</li>
</ul>


Bernstein is still analysing Intel as a volume and share story, but the economics have shifted toward capacity, pricing power, and constrained supply.
Across PCs and data centres, Intel is increasingly selling capacity-limited, high-ASP products  into an environment of long-term contracts, tight packaging, and rising infrastructure costs.
With fabs filling, Panther Lake well received, and competitors spending tens of billions to retain dominance, Intel’s manufacturing footprint is starting to translate into real financial leverage.


Intel Is Not the Company Bernstein Thinks It Is

<ul>
<li>Intel has already pushed through 20% CPU price hikes with another increase likely in May, while CPU lines run at around 95% utilisation.</li>
<li>Intel is spending $14.2 billion to buy back Apollo’s stake in Fab 34 and pulling more of the AI stack into its orbit via SambaNova and Nvidia’s NVLink.</li>
<li>Panther Lake 18A yields around 65%, as Nvidia’s packaging struggles at TSMC pull it toward EMIB-T; a move out of the mid‑$60s and toward a $90-handle stops looking aggressive now!</li>
</ul>


Intel has already pushed through 20% CPU price hikes with another increase likely in May, while CPU lines run at around 95% utilisation.
Intel is spending $14.2 billion to buy back Apollo’s stake in Fab 34 and pulling more of the AI stack into its orbit via SambaNova and Nvidia’s NVLink.
Panther Lake 18A yields around 65%, as Nvidia’s packaging struggles at TSMC pull it toward EMIB-T; a move out of the mid‑$60s and toward a $90-handle stops looking aggressive now!


When Shortage Meets 30% Price Hikes: The Intel Earnings Setup

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel. It’s a Lot Better Thanks to Server CPU Demand. Let’s Look at Very Bullish Forecasts

Server CPU driven by AI Inference & Agentic, leading to price hikes and margins improvement. PC demand downside risk (memory prices). Bullish...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Q126. Soaring On Multiple Tailwinds

Intel's share price is soaring in after hours trading, currently up ~22%. Is this a turning point for Intel's resurgence? Let's see...

William Keating

Intel Q1 Checkpoint: 18A Metrics, Foundry Equipment Ramps, and Options Market Positioning

Intel is capitalizing on CPU shortage with price hikes, relying on improved yields for relief and ramping up foundry equipment orders to win...

Mint Finance

Intel Is Not the Company Bernstein Thinks It Is

In January, we pushed back on Bernstein, saying that its Intel rating was still based on old execution scars versus what a working 18A ramp would...

Mint Finance

When Shortage Meets 30% Price Hikes: The Intel Earnings Setup

Intel is raising CPU prices by 30%, buying back Fab 34, and expanding AI capabilities with SambaNova and NVLink, as Panther Lake yields 65% and...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Intel. It’s a Lot Better Thanks to Server CPU Demand. Let’s Look at Very Bullish Forecasts

​Server CPU driven by AI Inference & Agentic, leading to price hikes and margins improvement. PC demand downside risk (memory prices). Bullish...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Q126. Soaring On Multiple Tailwinds

Intel's share price is soaring in after hours trading, currently up ~22%. Is this a turning point for Intel's resurgence? Let's see...

William Keating

Intel Q1 Checkpoint: 18A Metrics, Foundry Equipment Ramps, and Options Market Positioning

​Intel is capitalizing on CPU shortage with price hikes, relying on improved yields for relief and ramping up foundry equipment orders to win...

Mint Finance

Intel Is Not the Company Bernstein Thinks It Is

In January, we pushed back on Bernstein, saying that its Intel rating was still based on old execution scars versus what a working 18A ramp would...

Mint Finance

When Shortage Meets 30% Price Hikes: The Intel Earnings Setup

​Intel is raising CPU prices by 30%, buying back Fab 34, and expanding AI capabilities with SambaNova and NVLink, as Panther Lake yields 65% and...

Mint Finance

Server CPU driven by AI Inference & Agentic, leading to price hikes and margins improvement. PC demand downside risk (memory prices). Bullish...

Intel is capitalizing on CPU shortage with price hikes, relying on improved yields for relief and ramping up foundry equipment orders to win...

Intel is raising CPU prices by 30%, buying back Fab 34, and expanding AI capabilities with SambaNova and NVLink, as Panther Lake yields 65% and...