Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role</li>
<li>But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary</li>
<li>Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications</li>
</ul>


Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role
But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary
Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications


China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

<ul>
<li>The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend</li>
<li>What lies beneath - a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices</li>
<li>In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday</li>
</ul>


The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend
What lies beneath - a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices
In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday


China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 13-19, 2024

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 29-Dec 5, 2024

<ul>
<li>There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data</li>
<li>The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector </li>
<li>In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months</li>
</ul>


There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data
The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector 
In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months


China

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. is a large-scale integrated investment group primarily engaged in property development, investment, and management, alongside hotel and catering, cultural center, and healthcare operations. Its portfolio includes residential properties, villas, offices, serviced apartments, and urban complexes. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kaisa Group (1638 HK)

China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

China Property: We point out an important distinction between the Primary and Secondary Housing Markets and the implications; based on the data for...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

In this note, we present the Real Estate Foresight's Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Dec 13-19, 2024

This note is a weekly (Dec 13-19, 2024; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 29-Dec 5, 2024

This note is a weekly (Nov 29 - Dec 5, 2024; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: "Stabilize It"

In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing as of Nov 19, 20204 - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)