Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.</li><li>So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.</li><li>I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.</li></ul>

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hynix could announce KRW 100tn shareholder returns this week, with a 60:40 dividend buyback mix. Yeouido is increasingly positioning for this outcome.</li>
<li>KRW 40tn buyback matches the ADR proceeds, with Hynix repurchasing below the issuance price. The broader package also creates a timely window to upstream excess cash to SK.</li>
<li>Square looks set to outperform Hynix near term as the return mix reinforces the cash upstreaming narrative. A long Square, short Hynix or market setup looks compelling into the announcement.</li>
</ul>


Hynix could announce KRW 100tn shareholder returns this week, with a 60:40 dividend buyback mix. Yeouido is increasingly positioning for this outcome.
KRW 40tn buyback matches the ADR proceeds, with Hynix repurchasing below the issuance price. The broader package also creates a timely window to upstream excess cash to SK.
Square looks set to outperform Hynix near term as the return mix reinforces the cash upstreaming narrative. A long Square, short Hynix or market setup looks compelling into the announcement.


Hynix Dividend Heavy Return Likely Friday: Square Outperformance Setup in Focus

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>My updated NAV analysis of SK Square suggests a target price of 1,378,127 won (42% upside). SK Square's stake in SK Hynix is 172% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Assuming SK Hynix provides 65.2 trillion won in 2026 shareholder returns split equally between dividends and buybacks, each portion would total 32.6 trillion won.</li>
<li>SK Square's shareholder return policy is a bit vague. The company needs to better communicate its shareholder return policy. </li>
</ul>


My updated NAV analysis of SK Square suggests a target price of 1,378,127 won (42% upside). SK Square's stake in SK Hynix is 172% of its market cap.
Assuming SK Hynix provides 65.2 trillion won in 2026 shareholder returns split equally between dividends and buybacks, each portion would total 32.6 trillion won.
SK Square's shareholder return policy is a bit vague. The company needs to better communicate its shareholder return policy. 


SK Square: An Updated NAV Analysis + A Key Beneficiary of Higher Shareholder Returns by SK Hynix

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, have driven the Korean collapse, as AI anxiety and competition concern takes hold. However, there's more to Korea than memory and AI capex.</li>
<li>Throughout last month's carnage, Korean earnings estimates continued to be upgraded - not only in tech but also in financials, retail, basic materials, energy and industrial services.</li>
<li>Based on strong growth, attractive valuations, healthy balance-sheets, robust earnings upgrades, we highlight 15 non-tech Korean companies. Companies from industrials, select household products, basic materials have the strongest growth forecasts.</li>
</ul>


The memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, have driven the Korean collapse, as AI anxiety and competition concern takes hold. However, there's more to Korea than memory and AI capex.
Throughout last month's carnage, Korean earnings estimates continued to be upgraded - not only in tech but also in financials, retail, basic materials, energy and industrial services.
Based on strong growth, attractive valuations, healthy balance-sheets, robust earnings upgrades, we highlight 15 non-tech Korean companies. Companies from industrials, select household products, basic materials have the strongest growth forecasts.


Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

CXMT Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cxmt-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44129:1" rel="noopener">CXMT Corporation (688825 CH)</a> concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.</li>
<li>It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. </li>
<li>Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.</li>
</ul>



CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.
It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. 
Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.


CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Hynix Dividend Heavy Return Likely Friday: Square Outperformance Setup in Focus

Dividend disclosure is locked for the late October 3Q earnings call. The key swing factor is the special dividend, with local chatter now pointing...

Sanghyun Park

SK Square: An Updated NAV Analysis + A Key Beneficiary of Higher Shareholder Returns by SK Hynix

My updated NAV analysis of SK Square suggests a target price of 1,378,127 won (42% upside). SK Square's stake in SK Hynix is 172% of its market cap.

Douglas Kim

Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) has announced it will start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market next Monday (27 Jul 2026).

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Hynix Dividend Heavy Return Likely Friday: Square Outperformance Setup in Focus

Dividend disclosure is locked for the late October 3Q earnings call. The key swing factor is the special dividend, with local chatter now pointing...

Sanghyun Park

SK Square: An Updated NAV Analysis + A Key Beneficiary of Higher Shareholder Returns by SK Hynix

My updated NAV analysis of SK Square suggests a target price of 1,378,127 won (42% upside). SK Square's stake in SK Hynix is 172% of its market cap.

Douglas Kim

Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

​KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) has announced it will start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market next Monday (27 Jul 2026).

Osbert Tang, CFA

KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...