Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Occidental Petroleum gained USD 0.43 last week, closing at USD 51.97 on 17/Jan (Fri). However, the stock began this week on a weak note, falling by 2.7% on 21/Jan (Tue).</li>
<li>JPMorgan raised Occidental's price target to USD 59 from USD 58 with a Neutral rating, while Mizuho lowered its target to USD 68 from USD 70, maintaining a Neutral stance.</li>
<li>Occidental became the third-largest U.S. onshore oil and gas producer in 2024, up from fifth in 2023, with production reaching 1.22 million boepd, 58% of which was oil.</li>
</ul>


Occidental Petroleum gained USD 0.43 last week, closing at USD 51.97 on 17/Jan (Fri). However, the stock began this week on a weak note, falling by 2.7% on 21/Jan (Tue).
JPMorgan raised Occidental's price target to USD 59 from USD 58 with a Neutral rating, while Mizuho lowered its target to USD 68 from USD 70, maintaining a Neutral stance.
Occidental became the third-largest U.S. onshore oil and gas producer in 2024, up from fifth in 2023, with production reaching 1.22 million boepd, 58% of which was oil.


[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

<ul>
<li>Occidental’s Q3 revenue edged up by 0.2% YoY and beat estimates by 0.7%. Net profit fell by 16.6% YoY, but EPS beat estimates by 34.8%.</li>
<li>Total production increased 15.7% YoY, driven by strong growth in the Permian and Rockies, while US production surged 19% YoY, achieving its highest-ever quarterly output.</li>
<li>Long-Term debt reduced to USD 25.46 billion, down USD 4 billion, reaching nearly 90% of the company's near-term debt reduction target of USD 4.5 billion.</li>
</ul>


Occidental’s Q3 revenue edged up by 0.2% YoY and beat estimates by 0.7%. Net profit fell by 16.6% YoY, but EPS beat estimates by 34.8%.
Total production increased 15.7% YoY, driven by strong growth in the Permian and Rockies, while US production surged 19% YoY, achieving its highest-ever quarterly output.
Long-Term debt reduced to USD 25.46 billion, down USD 4 billion, reaching nearly 90% of the company's near-term debt reduction target of USD 4.5 billion.


[Earnings Review] Occidental Beats Q3 Estimates on Robust Output

<ul>
<li>Occidental will report Q3 earnings after market hours on 12/Nov, with revenue projected to rise 4.8% QoQ but EPS to decline 27.2% reflecting weaker refining margins.</li>
<li>Occidental’s OI PCR at 0.74 signals neutral sentiment, with a 99% IV percentile indicating high volatility. Its OI on 12/Nov was 4.4% higher than its 30-day average.</li>
<li>Occidental's short interest declined in October, reaching 33.75 million shares (6.93% of float) on 15/Oct, a decrease of 0.1% from 30/Sep but a 2.4% rise from 15/Jul.</li>
</ul>


Occidental will report Q3 earnings after market hours on 12/Nov, with revenue projected to rise 4.8% QoQ but EPS to decline 27.2% reflecting weaker refining margins.
Occidental’s OI PCR at 0.74 signals neutral sentiment, with a 99% IV percentile indicating high volatility. Its OI on 12/Nov was 4.4% higher than its 30-day average.
Occidental's short interest declined in October, reaching 33.75 million shares (6.93% of float) on 15/Oct, a decrease of 0.1% from 30/Sep but a 2.4% rise from 15/Jul.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Occidental’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Tone Amid High IV Before Earnings

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with support levels at 1,446/1,440 points (50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,460/1,465 points (25/10-day EMA).</li><li>We maintain the recommendation to sell on rises and wait for buying opportunities at support levels.</li><li>MOSHI maintains its target of 20% YoY growth in total sales revenue for 2024, expecting 2H24 to outperform 1H24 due to the high season for the business, new branch openings, and the development and launch of new products.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with support levels at 1,446/1,440 points (50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,460/1,465 points (25/10-day EMA).We maintain the recommendation to sell on rises and wait for buying opportunities at support levels.MOSHI maintains its target of 20% YoY growth in total sales revenue for 2024, expecting 2H24 to outperform 1H24 due to the high season for the business, new branch openings, and the development and launch of new products.

<ul>
<li>Occidental's revenue is projected to grow 4.8% QoQ but dip 0.1% YoY, while EPS may drop 27.2% QoQ and 36.4% YoY due to lower realised prices.</li>
<li>Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price is expected at USD 75.3/b, down 6.7% YoY and 5.7% QoQ, largely due to an 8.1% YoY and 6.2% QoQ decline in US prices.</li>
<li>Occidental has committed to reducing at least USD 4.5 billion in debt within 12 months of acquiring CrownRock, having already cut nearly USD 3.8 billion, nearing 85% of its target.</li>
</ul>


Occidental's revenue is projected to grow 4.8% QoQ but dip 0.1% YoY, while EPS may drop 27.2% QoQ and 36.4% YoY due to lower realised prices.
Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price is expected at USD 75.3/b, down 6.7% YoY and 5.7% QoQ, largely due to an 8.1% YoY and 6.2% QoQ decline in US prices.
Occidental has committed to reducing at least USD 4.5 billion in debt within 12 months of acquiring CrownRock, having already cut nearly USD 3.8 billion, nearing 85% of its target.


[Earnings Preview] Occidental's Q3 Profitability Expected to Contract Due to Declining Oil Prices

United States

Occidental Petroleum Corporation explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also manufactures and markets a variety of basic chemicals, vinyls and performance chemicals. Occidental also gathers, treats, processes, transports, stores, trades and markets crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, condensate and carbon dioxide (CO2) and generates and markets power.

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Occidental Petroleum (OXY US)

[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

Occidental Petroleum stock fluctuates after price target adjustments by JPMorgan and Mizuho, as company rises to third-largest U.S. onshore oil...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Occidental Beats Q3 Estimates on Robust Output

Occidental's Q3 revenue slightly grew, while net profit fell, but EPS beats estimates. Production surged, US output hit a record high. Long-term...

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Occidental’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Tone Amid High IV Before Earnings

Occidental's Q3 earnings show revenue up 4.8% but EPS down 27.2% due to weaker refining margins. Neutral sentiment with high volatility and...

Mint Finance

3Q24 Earnings Results

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with support levels at 1,446/1,440 points (50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,460/1,465 points...

Krungthai XSpring

[Earnings Preview] Occidental's Q3 Profitability Expected to Contract Due to Declining Oil Prices

Occidental's Q3 EPS is expected to decline due to a sharp drop in US average realized oil and natural gas prices. The firm’s high debt levels...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

​Occidental Petroleum stock fluctuates after price target adjustments by JPMorgan and Mizuho, as company rises to third-largest U.S. onshore oil...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Occidental Beats Q3 Estimates on Robust Output

​Occidental's Q3 revenue slightly grew, while net profit fell, but EPS beats estimates. Production surged, US output hit a record high. Long-term...

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Occidental’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Tone Amid High IV Before Earnings

​Occidental's Q3 earnings show revenue up 4.8% but EPS down 27.2% due to weaker refining margins. Neutral sentiment with high volatility and...

Mint Finance

3Q24 Earnings Results

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with support levels at 1,446/1,440 points (50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,460/1,465 points...

Krungthai XSpring

[Earnings Preview] Occidental's Q3 Profitability Expected to Contract Due to Declining Oil Prices

Occidental's Q3 EPS is expected to decline due to a sharp drop in US average realized oil and natural gas prices. The firm’s high debt levels...

Mint Finance

Occidental Petroleum stock fluctuates after price target adjustments by JPMorgan and Mizuho, as company rises to third-largest U.S. onshore oil...

Occidental's Q3 revenue slightly grew, while net profit fell, but EPS beats estimates. Production surged, US output hit a record high. Long-term...

Occidental's Q3 earnings show revenue up 4.8% but EPS down 27.2% due to weaker refining margins. Neutral sentiment with high volatility and...