Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.</li>
<li>Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.</li>
<li>Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.


[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel rise). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.</li>
<li>Henry Hub headed for a fourth straight daily loss, with analysts expecting a 24 Bcf build in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending 11/Apr.</li>
<li>Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Halliburton, while TotalEnergies expects Q1 hydrocarbon production at the high end of its guidance range.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel rise). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
Henry Hub headed for a fourth straight daily loss, with analysts expecting a 24 Bcf build in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending 11/Apr.
Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Halliburton, while TotalEnergies expects Q1 hydrocarbon production at the high end of its guidance range.


[ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 04/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.6m barrels (vs. expectations of 2.2m rise), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 57 Bcf for the week ending 04/Apr, missing analyst expectations of a 60 Bcf build. Inventories are 2.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Trump cancelled BP and Shell’s licenses for gas projects in Venezuela. UBS lowered its price target for Chevron, Exxon, Occidental, Halliburton, and Schlumberger.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 04/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.6m barrels (vs. expectations of 2.2m rise), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.
US natural gas inventories rose by 57 Bcf for the week ending 04/Apr, missing analyst expectations of a 60 Bcf build. Inventories are 2.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Trump cancelled BP and Shell’s licenses for gas projects in Venezuela. UBS lowered its price target for Chevron, Exxon, Occidental, Halliburton, and Schlumberger.


[ETP 2025/15] Tariff Pause Halts Slide in WTI and Henry Hub but U.S.-China Tensions Weigh on Prices

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.2m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.2k fall), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 29 Bcf for the week ending 28/Mar, exceeding analyst expectations of a 27 Bcf build. Inventories are 4.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Chevron sold its Texas gas assets for USD 525 million, while Exxon, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Aramco had their price targets cut.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.2m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.2k fall), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.
US natural gas inventories rose by 29 Bcf for the week ending 28/Mar, exceeding analyst expectations of a 27 Bcf build. Inventories are 4.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron sold its Texas gas assets for USD 525 million, while Exxon, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Aramco had their price targets cut.


[ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

United States

Occidental Petroleum Corporation explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also manufactures and markets a variety of basic chemicals, vinyls and performance chemicals. Occidental also gathers, treats, processes, transports, stores, trades and markets crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, condensate and carbon dioxide (CO2) and generates and markets power.

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Occidental Petroleum (OXY US)

[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

US crude inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Analysts lowered price targets for major oil companies,...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub

US crude inventories rise slightly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall; natural gas storage expected to increase; oil giants face price...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/15] Tariff Pause Halts Slide in WTI and Henry Hub but U.S.-China Tensions Weigh on Prices

US oil inventories rise, gasoline stockpiles fall less than expected. Natural gas inventories miss analyst expectations. Trump cancels BP and...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather

US oil inventories rose significantly, while gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected. Natural gas inventories also exceeded expectations,...

Mint Finance

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

​US crude inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Analysts lowered price targets for major oil companies,...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub

​US crude inventories rise slightly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall; natural gas storage expected to increase; oil giants face price...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/15] Tariff Pause Halts Slide in WTI and Henry Hub but U.S.-China Tensions Weigh on Prices

​US oil inventories rise, gasoline stockpiles fall less than expected. Natural gas inventories miss analyst expectations. Trump cancels BP and...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather

​US oil inventories rose significantly, while gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected. Natural gas inventories also exceeded expectations,...

Mint Finance

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

US crude inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Analysts lowered price targets for major oil companies,...

US crude inventories rise slightly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall; natural gas storage expected to increase; oil giants face price...

US oil inventories rise, gasoline stockpiles fall less than expected. Natural gas inventories miss analyst expectations. Trump cancels BP and...

US oil inventories rose significantly, while gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected. Natural gas inventories also exceeded expectations,...