Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>DELTA has been added to the SET100 Tactical Picks portfolio after its stock price dropped by over 13.3%, making it more attractive from a tactical perspective.</li><li>We recommend cutting losses on GULF and INTUCH after they delivered total returns of -6.0% and -5.2%, respectively, falling below the set threshold (-5.0%).</li><li>KTX's SET100 Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed within SET100 Index constituents.</li></ul>

DELTA has been added to the SET100 Tactical Picks portfolio after its stock price dropped by over 13.3%, making it more attractive from a tactical perspective.We recommend cutting losses on GULF and INTUCH after they delivered total returns of -6.0% and -5.2%, respectively, falling below the set threshold (-5.0%).KTX's SET100 Tactical Picks portfolio is constructed within SET100 Index constituents.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 3 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.2-3.6 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.3-3.1 days of ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to outperform the forecast deletes and there could be more movement in stocks with relatively high ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


With 3 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.2-3.6 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.3-3.1 days of ADV on the deletions.
The forecast adds have continued to outperform the forecast deletes and there could be more movement in stocks with relatively high ADV to trade.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Coming Up in December

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down trend, with the support at 1,432/1,424 points and the resistance at 1,447 points and 1,454 points (10-day EMA).</li><li>Thailand's economy is expected to continue improving YoY in 4Q24E owing to the low base and the government's economic stimulus measures.</li><li>Therefore, we maintain our <b>Trading Buy</b> recommendation if the SET Index moves within the range of 1,393-1,455 points.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down trend, with the support at 1,432/1,424 points and the resistance at 1,447 points and 1,454 points (10-day EMA).Thailand's economy is expected to continue improving YoY in 4Q24E owing to the low base and the government's economic stimulus measures.Therefore, we maintain our Trading Buy recommendation if the SET Index moves within the range of 1,393-1,455 points.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,460 points (25-day EMA) and 1,450 points and the resistance at 1,477 and 1,484 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a larger sideways range of 1,273-1,716 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index is still undecided on whether it will move upward to test the previous resistance level at 1,506 points (requiring a break above 1,488 points) or weaken to test the support at 1,443 points (if it falls below the 25-day moving average of 1,460 points).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,460 points (25-day EMA) and 1,450 points and the resistance at 1,477 and 1,484 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a larger sideways range of 1,273-1,716 points.In the short term, the index is still undecided on whether it will move upward to test the previous resistance level at 1,506 points (requiring a break above 1,488 points) or weaken to test the support at 1,443 points (if it falls below the 25-day moving average of 1,460 points).

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

Thailand

Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based investment holding company primarily engaged in the telecommunications, media, and technology (TMT) sectors, with a focus on digital businesses. The company primarily generates revenue through its stakes in subsidiaries and associates, most notably Advanced Info Service (AIS), Thailand's largest mobile operator. It was established in 1983 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)

Tactical Holdings

DELTA has been added to the SET100 Tactical Picks portfolio after its stock price dropped by over 13.3%, making it more attractive from a tactical...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Coming Up in December

There should be 4 changes to the SET50 in Dec. Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.3-3.6x ADV on the changes. The adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

TH 3Q24 GDP Growth & Weekly Strategy

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down trend, with the support at 1,432/1,424 points and the resistance at 1,447 points...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,460 points (25-day EMA) and 1,450 points and the resistance at...

Krungthai XSpring

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

For the month of Oct, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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