'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 7th AUGUST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The 'best' of Tuesday's large-cap announcements came from food retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaoko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1419:1" rel="noopener">Yaoko (8279 JP),</a> the worst from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-tec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17697:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Tec (6588 JP)</a>.  More extensive coverage follows in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/952/original/2020-08-12_06-08-17.png?1597180194" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151952"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/953/original/2020-08-12_06-10-18.png?1597180237" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151953"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p></p><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p><strong>(BETTER) PERCENTAGES</strong> - 59% of quarterly results, 48% of annual forecasts/revisions and 64% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 32% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter. Apart from the percentage losing money, these are the best percentages scores so far for this quarter's results.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>238 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 31% Positive / 10% Neutral / 59% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.8 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -8.4% Quarter YoY / -0.2% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.1 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 32%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>77 Annual • 33 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 44% Positive / 8% Neutral / 48% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 27% Positive / 9% Neutral / 64% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -4.9 points</li>
</ul></div>

•BEST &amp; WORST 7th AUGUST •The 'best' of Tuesday's large-cap announcements came from food retailer Yaoko (8279 JP), the worst from Toshiba Tec (6588 JP).  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.Source • Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS(BETTER) PERCENTAGES - 59% of quarterly results, 48% of annual forecasts/revisions and 64% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 32% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter. Apart from the percentage losing money, these are the best percentages scores so far for this quarter's results.238 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 31% Positive / 10% Neutral / 59% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.8 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -8.4% Quarter YoY / -0.2% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.1 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 32%
77 Annual • 33 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 44% Positive / 8% Neutral / 48% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 27% Positive / 9% Neutral / 64% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.9 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11th August - Softbank, NTT, Workman, Matsu'kiyo,

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR'</strong> - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE</strong> - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS DRIVER</strong> - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/106/452/original/2019-11-17_11-54-09.png?1573959284" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="106452"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>4TH DOWN AND A FEW MORE TO GO</strong> - The latest quarterly results are now, with the exception of three large insurance companies are currently in the market and, to loosely paraphrase the under-rated Jesse Winchester's second album title, this is the fourth straight 'down' quarter with the prospect a few more to come. Operating Income has declined by 7.8% and Net Income by 18.8%, taking margins to 6.9% and 4.6%, respectively - declines of 84bps and 122bps. The market has celebrated these new two-year lows by rising to new two-year highs, leaving some to wonder what they are missing, other than yet more central bank liquidity. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) price-earnings ratio is now 17 times, the highest since 5th February 2018, ten trading days after the long-term market peak.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/106/458/original/2019-11-17_12-49-55.png?1573962614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="106458"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/106/459/original/2019-11-17_13-10-47.png?1573963867" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="106459"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE EARNINGS CYCLE HAS YET TO BOTTOM</strong> -  Our Results &amp; Forecast/Revision Score data series cover the last sixteen years of quarterly earnings and eleven years of forecasts and revisions and measure both results and forecasts but also their momentum, providing a better correlation with the market direction than past earnings.   The Forecast/Revision Score leads the Results Score by several months, and the market leads or lags depending on monetary and liquidity conditions. Although both Scores recovered in the last five days of results announcements, the Forecast/Revision Score of 0.45 reached on 8th November is the lowest such score in ten years and is suggesting that earnings have yet to bottom.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>WISHFUL THINKING? - The 'gap' between market expectations and actual and forecast earnings momentum is now wider than at any time since late 2014, shortly before the market peak of May 2015. Is this foresight or just wishful thinking? We tend to the latter interpretation.</strong></p></div><p><strong>In the DETAIL section below, we shall provide a full breakdown of the results and revisions announcements by Sector, Peer Group and company and offer brief comments on several recommended buys and sells.</strong></p>

Source: Japan Analytics4TH DOWN AND A FEW MORE TO GO - The latest quarterly results are now, with the exception of three large insurance companies are currently in the market and, to loosely paraphrase the under-rated Jesse Winchester's second album title, this is the fourth straight 'down' quarter with the prospect a few more to come. Operating Income has declined by 7.8% and Net Income by 18.8%, taking margins to 6.9% and 4.6%, respectively - declines of 84bps and 122bps. The market has celebrated these new two-year lows by rising to new two-year highs, leaving some to wonder what they are missing, other than yet more central bank liquidity. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) price-earnings ratio is now 17 times, the highest since 5th February 2018, ten trading days after the long-term market peak.Source: Japan AnalyticsTHE EARNINGS CYCLE HAS YET TO BOTTOM -  Our Results &amp; Forecast/Revision Score data series cover the last sixteen years of quarterly earnings and eleven years of forecasts and revisions and measure both results and forecasts but also their momentum, providing a better correlation with the market direction than past earnings.   The Forecast/Revision Score leads the Results Score by several months, and the market leads or lags depending on monetary and liquidity conditions. Although both Scores recovered in the last five days of results announcements, the Forecast/Revision Score of 0.45 reached on 8th November is the lowest such score in ten years and is suggesting that earnings have yet to bottom.WISHFUL THINKING? - The 'gap' between market expectations and actual and forecast earnings momentum is now wider than at any time since late 2014, shortly before the market peak of May 2015. Is this foresight or just wishful thinking? We tend to the latter interpretation.In the DETAIL section below, we shall provide a full breakdown of the results and revisions announcements by Sector, Peer Group and company and offer brief comments on several recommended buys and sells.

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Review - Wishful Thinking

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Toshiba was taken over in late 2023 by a consortium led by local PE firm Japan Industrial Partners. The official takeover price was ¥2.0 trillion. </li>
<li>That was financed by ¥1.2trln of senior lending, ¥200bn of prefs, ¥520bn of equity, and ¥235.5bn of mezzanine finance which meant net debt on Day1 was likely about ¥1.1trln.</li>
<li>EBITDA was ¥180bn in Mar24, ¥338bn in Mar25, and ¥482bn in Mar26. Things are improving. And Toshiba held Kioxia shares. That's gone well too. How well? Look inside.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba was taken over in late 2023 by a consortium led by local PE firm Japan Industrial Partners. The official takeover price was ¥2.0 trillion. 
That was financed by ¥1.2trln of senior lending, ¥200bn of prefs, ¥520bn of equity, and ¥235.5bn of mezzanine finance which meant net debt on Day1 was likely about ¥1.1trln.
EBITDA was ¥180bn in Mar24, ¥338bn in Mar25, and ¥482bn in Mar26. Things are improving. And Toshiba held Kioxia shares. That's gone well too. How well? Look inside.


[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>As I have mentioned before, a long time ago I worked at Panasonic in their IR department. One day when I was bored, I went to the Accounting department to see what was in Other Assets. One of the girls gave me an itemized list and at the bottom of that list was another Other category. Yes, in Other Assets is Other Assets.</p><p>I asked to see what was in Other in Other Assets as it was 90% of the total. She just laughed and said that the Other in Other Assets was so confusing that there is no way to…</p>

As I have mentioned before, a long time ago I worked at Panasonic in their IR department. One day when I was bored, I went to the Accounting department to see what was in Other Assets. One of the girls gave me an itemized list and at the bottom of that list was another Other category. Yes, in Other Assets is Other Assets.I asked to see what was in Other in Other Assets as it was 90% of the total. She just laughed and said that the Other in Other Assets was so confusing that there is no way to…

Names with Too Much "Other" On the Balance Sheet....

Japan

TOSHIBA TEC CORPORATION manufactures electronic equipment for distribution system, document processing, and household use.  The Company's products include Point of Sale (POS) systems, bar code scanners, copy machines, printers, and vacuum cleaners.

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Toshiba Tec (6588 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11th August - Softbank, NTT, Workman, Matsu'kiyo,

•BEST & WORST 7th AUGUST •The 'best' of Tuesday's large-cap announcements came from food retailer Yaoko (8279 JP), the worst from Toshiba Tec...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Review - Wishful Thinking

4TH DOWN AND A FEW MORE TO GO - The latest quarterly results are now, with the exception of three large insurance companies are currently in the...

Campbell Gunn

[Japan Navel-Gazing] Thinking About The Value of Toshiba

In the 5 days since I published, Toshiba's Kioxia shares have added ¥930bn in value. After tax assuming sold, that would be ¥650bn and ¥324/Rohm...

Travis Lundy

Names with Too Much "Other" On the Balance Sheet....

As I have mentioned before, a long time ago I worked at Panasonic in their IR department. One day when I was bored, I went to the Accounting...

Custom Products Group

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