Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The bigger question for investors is whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> will keep up with global auto market needs or will they suffer as Toyota may suffer?</li>
<li>The FSS may put the breaks on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a>'s massive capital raise. </li>
<li>Murakami-San has won <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>. The company has decided to up its dividend payout and future dividend payout ratio and buy back a boatload of shares. </li>
</ul>


The bigger question for investors is whether Denso Corp (6902 JP) will keep up with global auto market needs or will they suffer as Toyota may suffer?
The FSS may put the breaks on Korea Zinc (010130 KS)'s massive capital raise. 
Murakami-San has won Exedy Corp (7278 JP). The company has decided to up its dividend payout and future dividend payout ratio and buy back a boatload of shares. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso/Toyota, Korea Zinc, Exedy, Good Drinks, Shinsegae

Canvest Environmental Protection Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals discussed this week: Schemes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-grand-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18241:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cm-hi-tech-cleanroom-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44057:1" rel="noopener">CM Hi-Tech (2115 HK)</a>, and Tender Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elematec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2866:1" rel="noopener">Elematec (2715 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks (1973 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals discussed this week: Schemes for Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) and CM Hi-Tech (2115 HK), and Tender Offers for Elematec (2715 JP) and Nec Networks (1973 JP).
Key updates took place on: Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) and Capitol Health (CAJ AU).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Beijing Capital Grand, Elematec, Nec Networks, Hotel Property Invest, Canvest

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Today's FSS briefing warned Choi, favoring MBK. It looks likely Korea Zinc will retract the rights offering, or we might see a rare showdown with the FSS.</li>
<li>Will Korea Zinc's stock rally? Uncertain. The recent price jump was driven mainly by short squeezes. Volatility seems unlikely now with many shorts cleared out.</li>
<li>We should watch the shareholder vote, as open market buying continues, keeping Korea Zinc's stock tight. We should expect potential swings due to passive outflows.</li>
</ul>


Today's FSS briefing warned Choi, favoring MBK. It looks likely Korea Zinc will retract the rights offering, or we might see a rare showdown with the FSS.
Will Korea Zinc's stock rally? Uncertain. The recent price jump was driven mainly by short squeezes. Volatility seems unlikely now with many shorts cleared out.
We should watch the shareholder vote, as open market buying continues, keeping Korea Zinc's stock tight. We should expect potential swings due to passive outflows.


FSS Briefing on Korea Zinc: Likely to Retract Rights Offering; Set up Trades for Passive Outflows

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>12 ETFs (9 passive and 3 active) and 1 ETN tracking the Korea Value-Up Index will start trading on the KRX on 4 November.</li>
<li>At listing, the combined AUM across the 13 products is KRW 511bn (US$370m). So not a lot of impact on the stocks in the index.</li>
<li>The expectation is that there will be a lot of money that starts to track the index after the ETF listing. Looking at Japan, that is not a success story.</li>
</ul>


12 ETFs (9 passive and 3 active) and 1 ETN tracking the Korea Value-Up Index will start trading on the KRX on 4 November.
At listing, the combined AUM across the 13 products is KRW 511bn (US$370m). So not a lot of impact on the stocks in the index.
The expectation is that there will be a lot of money that starts to track the index after the ETF listing. Looking at Japan, that is not a success story.


Korea Value-Up ETFs: Listing on 4 Nov with US$370m AUM

South Korea

Korea Zinc Co., Ltd. specializes in non-ferrous metal smelting industry.  The Company manufactures zinc ingots, electrolytic gold, silver, lead, sulfuric acid, and copper.  Korea Zinc provides its products to domestic and overseas markets.

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Korea Zinc (010130 KS)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso/Toyota, Korea Zinc, Exedy, Good Drinks, Shinsegae

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Beijing Capital Grand, Elematec, Nec Networks, Hotel Property Invest, Canvest

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

For the month of Oct, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

FSS Briefing on Korea Zinc: Likely to Retract Rights Offering; Set up Trades for Passive Outflows

This post covers today’s FSS briefing on the Korea Zinc rights offering and explores the reasons behind the likely cancellation. It also highlights...

Sanghyun Park

Korea Value-Up ETFs: Listing on 4 Nov with US$370m AUM

12 ETFs (9 passive and 3 active) and 1 ETN tracking the Korea Value-Up Index will start trading on the KRX on 4 November. Total assets at launch...

Brian Freitas

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