Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend</li>
<li>Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors</li>
<li>Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts</li>
</ul>


March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>TCOM reported C4Q24 revenue 5.4%/3.6% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11.2%/6.2% higher than our estimate/consensus, supported by strong domestic travel rebound;</li>
<li>Even though C1Q25 margin guidance was soft due to commitment to overseas expansions and a couple of one-time events affecting outbound, </li>
<li>We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.</li>
</ul>


TCOM reported C4Q24 revenue 5.4%/3.6% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11.2%/6.2% higher than our estimate/consensus, supported by strong domestic travel rebound;
Even though C1Q25 margin guidance was soft due to commitment to overseas expansions and a couple of one-time events affecting outbound, 
We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.


[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

<ul><li>This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.</li><li>This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.</li><li>I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.</li></ul>

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (25 Feb) 4Q24 results: total revenue was RMB12.8bn, up 23% YoY, 4% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB2.8bn, also 4% better than consensus thanks to more optimized-than-expected operating expenses.</li><li>For 2024, revenue grew 20% YoY to RMB53.4bn, and non-GAAP OP/NP grew 23/38% YoY to RMB16.2bn/18.0bn.</li><li>Accounting for the combined impact from more robust-than-expected revenue growth from Trip.com business, which is still in a loss-making stage, and likely slower-than-previously expected outbound travel business revenue growth in 2025E due to slower-than-expected recovery in international flight capacity, we lift 2025E revenue forecast by 1% but lower non-GAAP NP forecast by 1%. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (25 Feb) 4Q24 results: total revenue was RMB12.8bn, up 23% YoY, 4% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB2.8bn, also 4% better than consensus thanks to more optimized-than-expected operating expenses.For 2024, revenue grew 20% YoY to RMB53.4bn, and non-GAAP OP/NP grew 23/38% YoY to RMB16.2bn/18.0bn.Accounting for the combined impact from more robust-than-expected revenue growth from Trip.com business, which is still in a loss-making stage, and likely slower-than-previously expected outbound travel business revenue growth in 2025E due to slower-than-expected recovery in international flight capacity, we lift 2025E revenue forecast by 1% but lower non-GAAP NP forecast by 1%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Entry Point Could Appear Post Market Correction

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than 19% we expected.</li>
<li>The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note.</li>
<li>However, we believe, any stock decline over 11% means overreacted.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than 19% we expected.
The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note.
However, we believe, any stock decline over 11% means overreacted.


Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.

Acid Investments

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Entry Point Could Appear Post Market Correction

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (25 Feb) 4Q24 results: total revenue was RMB12.8bn, up 23% YoY, 4% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than we expected. The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note, but we believe...

Ming Lu

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Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

​TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.

Acid Investments

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Entry Point Could Appear Post Market Correction

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (25 Feb) 4Q24 results: total revenue was RMB12.8bn, up 23% YoY, 4% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than we expected. The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note, but we believe...

Ming Lu

TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...