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New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The rise of data usage in Emerging Markets delivers increased benefits of scale to operators. Capex and spectrum holdings become key weapons to gain market share. This tends to play well for large incumbents; large dominant telcos are increasing their dominance. With increased share of profits flowing to a dominant player, returns for the smaller players can fall to unsustainable levels. &nbsp;A number of outcomes are possible.<ol><li>If the government does not own a large stake in the dominant player then asymmetric regulation is likely to benefit the smaller players.&nbsp;</li><li>Where the government owns a stake in the dominant player, asymmetric regulation is less likely and instead a deeper consolidation of smaller players may be allowed.&nbsp;</li><li>In markets where existing players generate high returns we see a risk of new entry to erode returns. Small cell challengers are likely to be part of this picture.&nbsp;</li></ol>&nbsp;

The rise of data usage in Emerging Markets delivers increased benefits of scale to operators. Capex and spectrum holdings become key weapons to gain market share. This tends to play well for large incumbents; large dominant telcos are increasing their dominance. With increased share of profits flowing to a dominant player, returns for the smaller players can fall to unsustainable levels. &nbsp;A number of outcomes are possible.If the government does not own a large stake in the dominant player then asymmetric regulation is likely to benefit the smaller players.&nbsp;Where the government owns a stake in the dominant player, asymmetric regulation is less likely and instead a deeper consolidation of smaller players may be allowed.&nbsp;In markets where existing players generate high returns we see a risk of new entry to erode returns. Small cell challengers are likely to be part of this picture.&nbsp;&nbsp;

The Urge to Merge - EM Telcos Look at Consolidation

Fibre/cable firms (Altnets) have a strong growth dynamic in most EMs and the potential to create value through wireless entry using small cells technology. Many EM telcos face stagnant growth and declining returns in contrast to opportunities in fibre. Rising middle classes in Asia will pay to have fibre in the home. What has been seen as a niche product will have wider resonance as income levels rise. We believe investors are materially underestimating the potential demand for fixed broadband and for the revenues that result. In some ways this is analogous to concepts of addressable markets for mobile operators in the early days of GSM.As we have seen in Europe, we expect a number of the fibre/cable payers to be acquired by cellular firms look to both remove potential competition and to ensure a strong fibre network to deal with soaring data usage.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Fibre/cable firms (Altnets) have a strong growth dynamic in most EMs and the potential to create value through wireless entry using small cells technology. Many EM telcos face stagnant growth and declining returns in contrast to opportunities in fibre. Rising middle classes in Asia will pay to have fibre in the home. What has been seen as a niche product will have wider resonance as income levels rise. We believe investors are materially underestimating the potential demand for fixed broadband and for the revenues that result. In some ways this is analogous to concepts of addressable markets for mobile operators in the early days of GSM.As we have seen in Europe, we expect a number of the fibre/cable payers to be acquired by cellular firms look to both remove potential competition and to ensure a strong fibre network to deal with soaring data usage.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Emerging market fibre/cable operators (Altnets) are likely to outperform local wireless peers

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Central Pacific Financial Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,177/1,171 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,197/1,204 points.</li><li>As such, the medium- to long-term view remains bullish, and any weakness is seen as a buying opportunity — we recommend investing in selective stocks.</li><li>Today's FOMC meeting is thus expected to maintain the current rate (in line with the consensus).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,177/1,171 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,197/1,204 points.As such, the medium- to long-term view remains bullish, and any weakness is seen as a buying opportunity — we recommend investing in selective stocks.Today's FOMC meeting is thus expected to maintain the current rate (in line with the consensus).

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in March of last year, Bloomberg reported,that Renaldo Santosa and his family, who collectively controlled ~75.5% of agri-play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15597:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Ltd (JAP SP)</a>, were considering taking Japfa private.</li>
<li>This was discussed in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/174028/%20https:/skr.ma/iKVsA" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Japfa (JAP SP): Impressive Gain. But No Firm Offer</a>. Then crickets. </li>
<li>The family has now pitched an Offer of S$0.62/share, by way of  a Scheme, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed. That's probably enough to get this over the line. </li>
</ul>


Back in March of last year, Bloomberg reported,that Renaldo Santosa and his family, who collectively controlled ~75.5% of agri-play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), were considering taking Japfa private.
This was discussed in Japfa (JAP SP): Impressive Gain. But No Firm Offer. Then crickets. 
The family has now pitched an Offer of S$0.62/share, by way of  a Scheme, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed. That's probably enough to get this over the line. 


Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move

<ul>
<li>
HK$1.38/Share. That's the takeaway as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> enters an SPA to offload its 78.7% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art (6808 HK)</a> at <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0101/2025010100067.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HK$1.38/share</a>, a 44.4% discount to last close.</li>
<li>The buyer, Paragon Shine, an entity under Chinese PE outfit DCP Capital, is paying ~HK$12.3bn compared to BABA's HK$28.1bn purchase of a 51% stake in October 2020.</li>
<li>Should the SPA complete, an unconditional MGO is triggered. Minorities tendering can receive up to HK$1.58/share. But the question is: why would BABA be cashing out at this price?</li>
</ul>



HK$1.38/Share. That's the takeaway as Alibaba Group (9988 HK) enters an SPA to offload its 78.7% stake in Sun Art (6808 HK) at HK$1.38/share, a 44.4% discount to last close.
The buyer, Paragon Shine, an entity under Chinese PE outfit DCP Capital, is paying ~HK$12.3bn compared to BABA's HK$28.1bn purchase of a 51% stake in October 2020.
Should the SPA complete, an unconditional MGO is triggered. Minorities tendering can receive up to HK$1.58/share. But the question is: why would BABA be cashing out at this price?


Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): BABA Takes Massive Hit After Inking SPA @ HK$1.38

Thailand

Thaicom is a leading Asian satellite operator and SpaceTech company, providing comprehensive satellite communications services, including broadband via High Throughput Satellite (HTS) and satellite TV broadcasting. The company also offers geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) services by leveraging Earth Observation satellite data, AI, and Machine Learning. Thaicom was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thaicom (THCOM TB)

The Urge to Merge - EM Telcos Look at Consolidation

The rise of data usage in Emerging Markets delivers increased benefits of scale to operators. Capex and spectrum holdings become key weapons to...

New Street Research

Emerging market fibre/cable operators (Altnets) are likely to outperform local wireless peers

Fibre/cable firms (Altnets) have a strong growth dynamic in most EMs and the potential to create value through wireless entry using small cells...

New Street Research

US FOMC Meeting

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,177/1,171 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,197/1,204...

Krungthai XSpring

Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move

Scheme Doc dispatched. 15th April Scheme Meeting. Payment on or around the 30th May. With a fair value range of S$0.53 to S$0.56/share, the IFA...

David Blennerhassett

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): BABA Takes Massive Hit After Inking SPA @ HK$1.38

The SPA completed on the 27th Feb, triggering the MGO. Composite Doc to be dispatched on or before the 6th Mar. Under the terms of the SPA, an...

David Blennerhassett

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