Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
We believe SK Materials is the biggest winner from SK Group's efforts to vertically integrate the sourcing of semiconductor-related gases and materials. After the political feud between Japan and South Korea in the summer of 2019, SK Group has determined that it reduce risks associated with relying too much on the Japanese suppliers on various semiconductor materials. As such, over the next several years, SK Materials will play a key role in the entire SK Group's increasing vertical integration of numerous semiconductor materials.</li>
<li>Valuation - The valuation levels of SK Materials have been wide-ranging in the past four years. The P/E range has been from 10.2x to 18.6x in the past four years. The P/B multiples have ranged 2.2x to 4.7x in the past four years. Currently, it is trading at 3.6x P/B, using its book value of 489 billion won at the end of 3Q19. The consensus currently estimates the company's equity to be 634 billion won at the end of 2020, which would be a 30% increase in equity from the end of 3Q19. If we apply the same P/B multiple of 3.6x and apply to next year's book value, the would suggest an implied market cap of 2.3 trillion won or 216,402 won per share (30% higher than current levels).</li>
<li>
Tuck-In Acquisitions of Attractive Industrial Gases and Materials Businesses - Since 2016, SK Materials has made several acquisitions &amp; JVs including the acquisition of SKC Airgas (2016), SK Showa Denko (2017), Hanyu Chemical (2019), and Kumho Petrochem's photoresist business (2020). These tuck-in acquisitions have added to the company's revenues and the company has been able to maintain high operating margins. From 2015 to 2019, SK Materials generated an average operating margin of 30%, which is one of the highest among Korean companies with more than $1 billion in market cap.</li>
</ul>



We believe SK Materials is the biggest winner from SK Group's efforts to vertically integrate the sourcing of semiconductor-related gases and materials. After the political feud between Japan and South Korea in the summer of 2019, SK Group has determined that it reduce risks associated with relying too much on the Japanese suppliers on various semiconductor materials. As such, over the next several years, SK Materials will play a key role in the entire SK Group's increasing vertical integration of numerous semiconductor materials.
Valuation - The valuation levels of SK Materials have been wide-ranging in the past four years. The P/E range has been from 10.2x to 18.6x in the past four years. The P/B multiples have ranged 2.2x to 4.7x in the past four years. Currently, it is trading at 3.6x P/B, using its book value of 489 billion won at the end of 3Q19. The consensus currently estimates the company's equity to be 634 billion won at the end of 2020, which would be a 30% increase in equity from the end of 3Q19. If we apply the same P/B multiple of 3.6x and apply to next year's book value, the would suggest an implied market cap of 2.3 trillion won or 216,402 won per share (30% higher than current levels).

Tuck-In Acquisitions of Attractive Industrial Gases and Materials Businesses - Since 2016, SK Materials has made several acquisitions &amp; JVs including the acquisition of SKC Airgas (2016), SK Showa Denko (2017), Hanyu Chemical (2019), and Kumho Petrochem's photoresist business (2020). These tuck-in acquisitions have added to the company's revenues and the company has been able to maintain high operating margins. From 2015 to 2019, SK Materials generated an average operating margin of 30%, which is one of the highest among Korean companies with more than $1 billion in market cap.


SK Materials - The Biggest Winner from SK Group's Vertical Integration of Semiconductor Materials

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/429/original/2020-02-12_12-29-56.png?1581478227" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117429"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-nippon-sanso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">TAIYO NIPPON SANSO (4091 JP)</a> - TNS, itself a three-way merger between Nippon Sanso, Taiyo Sanso and Toyo Sanso, has been one of Japan's more globally acquisitive companies in recent years. The company has bought businesses from Linde (North America), Praxair (Europe) and Air Liquide (USA), Air Products (Thailand) while buying businesses outright or majority stakes in India, Australia, Singapore, Thailand. From  2014, TNS became a consolidated subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-chemical-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12781:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP),</a> a stake that represents 44% of Mitsubishi Chemical's current market value. 
HIGH-PRESSURE PERFORMER - TNS shares have been one of the best-performing stocks in the Chemicals Sector in Japan since 2012, rising by 554% and reaching a daily closing high of ¥2,665 on 15th November 2019. Although no longer Overbought and having moved in a  narrow range since July 2019, TNS shares are still trading at the elevated levels commensurate with a high-growth company.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/424/original/2020-02-12_12-16-41.png?1581477424" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117424"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
TRULY GLOBAL - The domestic gas business is now only 42% of revenues and 29% of Operating Income, with the business spread geographically between the US (25%/25%), Europe (20%.28%), and Asia-Pacific (13%/11.9). Gas margins are higher overseas (10%/15%/10%) than in Japan 7.5%, which has been one of the drivers of the expansion abroad. 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/430/original/File%202020-02-12%2011%2051%2021.jpeg?1581478650" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117430"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Company</div>
MOSTLY GAS - Although TNS has four main business lines, the non-Industrial Gas businesses are related to the application of gas technologies and products in fields related to electronics, medical care and energy. The exception is the THERMOS stainless steel vacuum flasks and thermal cookers business which commands margins of over 30% but is only 3% of sales.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/431/original/File%202020-02-12%2012%2042%2011.jpeg?1581479106" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117431"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Company</div>
HOLDCO - In October this year, the company will transition to a holding company and change its name to Nippon Sanso Holdings as outlined above. The aim is to devolve more decision-making authority to the regions/business groups.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/458/original/2020-02-12_11-59-45.png?1581481488" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117458"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
DOWNWARD REVISION - On 5th February, TNS announced a downward revision of Revenue, Operating Income and Net Income of 4%, 7% and 6%, respectively, due to weak performance in the domestic Gas and Thermos divisions and one-off costs relating to Nippon Ekitan. These revisions are the first downward revisions by the company in six years and will likely be followed by a cautious outlook for FY2021 at the full-year results announcement in May.
AVOID/SELL - Although now more diversified, TNS remains primarily exposed to developed manufacturing economies and has yet to prove it can earn a positive residual return on its newly acquired assets. The company has attracted a premium valuation but has, so far, yet to justify investors' confidence. Shielded by the majority ownership of Mitsubishi Chemicals, there is little pressure than can be exerted on management to focus on returns rather than scale for scale's sake. We consider a TTM EV/OP ratio of 21.4 times excessive for a -1.5% return and recommend avoiding or selling TNS ahead of the upcoming cyclical downturn.


Source • Japan Analytics
TAIYO NIPPON SANSO (4091 JP) - TNS, itself a three-way merger between Nippon Sanso, Taiyo Sanso and Toyo Sanso, has been one of Japan's more globally acquisitive companies in recent years. The company has bought businesses from Linde (North America), Praxair (Europe) and Air Liquide (USA), Air Products (Thailand) while buying businesses outright or majority stakes in India, Australia, Singapore, Thailand. From  2014, TNS became a consolidated subsidiary of Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP), a stake that represents 44% of Mitsubishi Chemical's current market value. 
HIGH-PRESSURE PERFORMER - TNS shares have been one of the best-performing stocks in the Chemicals Sector in Japan since 2012, rising by 554% and reaching a daily closing high of ¥2,665 on 15th November 2019. Although no longer Overbought and having moved in a  narrow range since July 2019, TNS shares are still trading at the elevated levels commensurate with a high-growth company.

Source • Japan Analytics
TRULY GLOBAL - The domestic gas business is now only 42% of revenues and 29% of Operating Income, with the business spread geographically between the US (25%/25%), Europe (20%.28%), and Asia-Pacific (13%/11.9). Gas margins are higher overseas (10%/15%/10%) than in Japan 7.5%, which has been one of the drivers of the expansion abroad. 

Source • Company
MOSTLY GAS - Although TNS has four main business lines, the non-Industrial Gas businesses are related to the application of gas technologies and products in fields related to electronics, medical care and energy. The exception is the THERMOS stainless steel vacuum flasks and thermal cookers business which commands margins of over 30% but is only 3% of sales.

Source • Company
HOLDCO - In October this year, the company will transition to a holding company and change its name to Nippon Sanso Holdings as outlined above. The aim is to devolve more decision-making authority to the regions/business groups.

Source • Japan Analytics
DOWNWARD REVISION - On 5th February, TNS announced a downward revision of Revenue, Operating Income and Net Income of 4%, 7% and 6%, respectively, due to weak performance in the domestic Gas and Thermos divisions and one-off costs relating to Nippon Ekitan. These revisions are the first downward revisions by the company in six years and will likely be followed by a cautious outlook for FY2021 at the full-year results announcement in May.
AVOID/SELL - Although now more diversified, TNS remains primarily exposed to developed manufacturing economies and has yet to prove it can earn a positive residual return on its newly acquired assets. The company has attracted a premium valuation but has, so far, yet to justify investors' confidence. Shielded by the majority ownership of Mitsubishi Chemicals, there is little pressure than can be exerted on management to focus on returns rather than scale for scale's sake. We consider a TTM EV/OP ratio of 21.4 times excessive for a -1.5% return and recommend avoiding or selling TNS ahead of the upcoming cyclical downturn.

4091🇯🇵 Taiyo Nippon Sanso - High-Pressure • High-Stakes

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

When Air Water initially announced its secondary, we suggested that it would take a significant discount to get us interested. This was partly due to the degree of dilution and partly due to relatively stretched valuations on an EV/OP basis. With the stock price down 16% from the undisturbed price and the offering set to price tomorrow, we find the deal looking a lot more constructive now.

When Air Water initially announced its secondary, we suggested that it would take a significant discount to get us interested. This was partly due to the degree of dilution and partly due to relatively stretched valuations on an EV/OP basis. With the stock price down 16% from the undisturbed price and the offering set to price tomorrow, we find the deal looking a lot more constructive now.

Air Water – Share Price Fall Has Gotten Us Interested

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Air Water announced a USD 589 million placement to fund its acquisition of subsidiaries of Praxair and Linde in India as well as Hitec after the market close on November 25th.
In this insight, we will look at the acquisition and the deal specifics. We will also score the deal in our ECM Framework. Our view is that despite the synergy with Air Water's India's business, the deal is a short term dilutive deal. Air Water itself is trading at discount to international industry gas peers. Given that the share has priced in the dilutive effect of the placement, we would participate in the deal.

Air Water announced a USD 589 million placement to fund its acquisition of subsidiaries of Praxair and Linde in India as well as Hitec after the market close on November 25th.
In this insight, we will look at the acquisition and the deal specifics. We will also score the deal in our ECM Framework. Our view is that despite the synergy with Air Water's India's business, the deal is a short term dilutive deal. Air Water itself is trading at discount to international industry gas peers. Given that the share has priced in the dilutive effect of the placement, we would participate in the deal. 

Air Water (4088 JP) Placement: Dilution of Transaction Priced In

After market close Air Water announced that it would issue 27m new shares (13.6% dilution) and 4.05m extra shares (2.0% extra dilution) in a potential overallotment at a 0-10% discount with pricing to take place on a day between the 4th and 9th of December. We examine the company’s operations, valuations and the potential impact of the three recent acquisitions which have prompted this offering, below.

After market close Air Water announced that it would issue 27m new shares (13.6% dilution) and 4.05m extra shares (2.0% extra dilution) in a potential overallotment at a 0-10% discount with pricing to take place on a day between the 4th and 9th of December. We examine the company’s operations, valuations and the potential impact of the three recent acquisitions which have prompted this offering, below.

Air Water Secondary – We Would Be Looking for a Significant Discount

Japan

AIR WATER INC. produces industrial gases such as oxygen, nitrogen, argon, and acetylene.  The Company also sells fuels and processed foods.

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Air Water Inc (4088 JP)

SK Materials - The Biggest Winner from SK Group's Vertical Integration of Semiconductor Materials

We believe SK Materials is the biggest winner from SK Group's efforts to vertically integrate the sourcing of semiconductor-related gases and...

Douglas Kim

4091🇯🇵 Taiyo Nippon Sanso - High-Pressure • High-Stakes

TAIYO NIPPON SANSO (4091 JP) - TNS, itself a three-way merger between Nippon Sanso, Taiyo Sanso and Toyo Sanso, has been one of Japan's more...

Campbell Gunn

Air Water (4088 JP) Placement: Dilution of Transaction Priced In

Air Water announced a USD 589 million placement to fund its acquisition of subsidiaries of Praxair and Linde in India as well as Hitec after the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Air Water Secondary – We Would Be Looking for a Significant Discount

After market close Air Water announced that it would issue 27m new shares (13.6% dilution) and 4.05m extra shares (2.0% extra dilution) in a...

Mio Kato

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52-week Range

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SK Materials - The Biggest Winner from SK Group's Vertical Integration of Semiconductor Materials

We believe SK Materials is the biggest winner from SK Group's efforts to vertically integrate the sourcing of semiconductor-related gases and...

Douglas Kim

4091🇯🇵 Taiyo Nippon Sanso - High-Pressure • High-Stakes

TAIYO NIPPON SANSO (4091 JP) - TNS, itself a three-way merger between Nippon Sanso, Taiyo Sanso and Toyo Sanso, has been one of Japan's more...

Campbell Gunn

Air Water – Share Price Fall Has Gotten Us Interested

When Air Water initially announced its secondary, we suggested that it would take a significant discount to get us interested. This was partly due...

Mio Kato

Air Water (4088 JP) Placement: Dilution of Transaction Priced In

Air Water announced a USD 589 million placement to fund its acquisition of subsidiaries of Praxair and Linde in India as well as Hitec after the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Air Water Secondary – We Would Be Looking for a Significant Discount

After market close Air Water announced that it would issue 27m new shares (13.6% dilution) and 4.05m extra shares (2.0% extra dilution) in a...

Mio Kato