Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Limited breadth of winners, even in the SOX, with numerous DeepSeek and capex questions outstanding.</li>
<li>Regardless expect JP SPE to be higher to start; watch Advantest into numbers today after its -19% 2-day drop.</li>
<li>IT/SaaS companies are worth a look here with AI R&amp;D costs now potentially much lower including Fujitsu and NEC.</li>
</ul>


Limited breadth of winners, even in the SOX, with numerous DeepSeek and capex questions outstanding.
Regardless expect JP SPE to be higher to start; watch Advantest into numbers today after its -19% 2-day drop.
IT/SaaS companies are worth a look here with AI R&amp;D costs now potentially much lower including Fujitsu and NEC.


Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel's like a Dead Cat Bounce

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 3 days left in the review period, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> has a 11.29% weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. That means double capping in March.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.</li>
<li>Double capping will result in big selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.</li>
</ul>


With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

<ul>
<li>Softbank pledging $500bn worth of AI investment over the next 4-years will send JP SPE higher.</li>
<li>Plenty of high-quality semi-related names in Japan yet to recover from last years 4Q sell-off.</li>
<li>DR Horton numbers were a beat, but sold off their AM highs despite the weakening yields. Any sell off a buy the dip change for Sumi Forestry.</li>
</ul>


Softbank pledging $500bn worth of AI investment over the next 4-years will send JP SPE higher.
Plenty of high-quality semi-related names in Japan yet to recover from last years 4Q sell-off.
DR Horton numbers were a beat, but sold off their AM highs despite the weakening yields. Any sell off a buy the dip change for Sumi Forestry.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

<ul>
<li>Tech and Semi's rebounding sharply which should see related names in JP trade better after yesterdays persistent weakness.</li>
<li>Da Vinci procedures seeing strong growth...will Sysmex's Hinotori also fly? </li>
<li>Tourist numbers surging in JP should see YTD losers back in the spotlight.</li>
</ul>


Tech and Semi's rebounding sharply which should see related names in JP trade better after yesterdays persistent weakness.
Da Vinci procedures seeing strong growth...will Sysmex's Hinotori also fly? 
Tourist numbers surging in JP should see YTD losers back in the spotlight.


Japan Morning Connection: CPI to the Rescue for Risk-On Growth Style Plays

<ul>
<li>SPE in Japan was aggressively sold yesterday but moves look excessive</li>
<li>US Homebuilder's gain after KB Homes beat priced in... upside for JP names should continue</li>
<li>Rohm's outlook remains cloudy as SiC prices likely to slide further as new Chinese supply hits the market.</li>
</ul>


SPE in Japan was aggressively sold yesterday but moves look excessive
US Homebuilder's gain after KB Homes beat priced in... upside for JP names should continue
Rohm's outlook remains cloudy as SiC prices likely to slide further as new Chinese supply hits the market.


Japan Morning Connection: Lukewarm Tech Rebound in the US Enough to Pause JP SPE Meltdown?

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel's like a Dead Cat Bounce

Opportunities to watch for higher JP SPE, keep an eye on Advantest after recent drop. IT/SaaS companies like Fujitsu and NEC worth looking at with...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: CPI to the Rescue for Risk-On Growth Style Plays

Tech and Semi's rebounding should be positive for related JP names. Da Vinci procedures show strong numbers - what of Hinotori? JP tourist numbers...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Lukewarm Tech Rebound in the US Enough to Pause JP SPE Meltdown?

Japan SPE sold aggressively, homebuilders should continue to gain after KB Homes' beat, Rohm's outlook cloudy with SiC prices expected to drop with...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel's like a Dead Cat Bounce

Opportunities to watch for higher JP SPE, keep an eye on Advantest after recent drop. IT/SaaS companies like Fujitsu and NEC worth looking at with...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

​Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: CPI to the Rescue for Risk-On Growth Style Plays

​Tech and Semi's rebounding should be positive for related JP names. Da Vinci procedures show strong numbers - what of Hinotori? JP tourist numbers...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Lukewarm Tech Rebound in the US Enough to Pause JP SPE Meltdown?

Japan SPE sold aggressively, homebuilders should continue to gain after KB Homes' beat, Rohm's outlook cloudy with SiC prices expected to drop with...

Andrew Jackson

Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Tech and Semi's rebounding should be positive for related JP names. Da Vinci procedures show strong numbers - what of Hinotori? JP tourist numbers...