Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.</p>

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Current investment levels in Macau Gaming stocks are low compared to history across all of our ownership measures.  Declines that started in 2014 were accentuated by the COVID crisis, as EM funds repositioned in to safer corners of the market.  From a positioning perspective, this leaves plenty of upside should a change in sentiment occur.  Active EM exposure is now close to a 10-year low, there are many previous investors sitting on the sidelines and current investors are far from overstretched.</p><p>At present though, EM investors bullish on the fundamental case for Macau Gaming stocks should be aware that this is largely an anti-consensus view.  74% of EM active funds do not have exposure and neither does the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index.  If it does pays off, it will provide valuable outperformance against both the benchmark and the active peer group in the year to come.  </p><p><em>The analysis looks at the collective allocations in Macau Gaming stocks from a pool of 243 actively managed Global Emerging Market funds, with combined AUM of $460bn,</em></p>

Current investment levels in Macau Gaming stocks are low compared to history across all of our ownership measures.  Declines that started in 2014 were accentuated by the COVID crisis, as EM funds repositioned in to safer corners of the market.  From a positioning perspective, this leaves plenty of upside should a change in sentiment occur.  Active EM exposure is now close to a 10-year low, there are many previous investors sitting on the sidelines and current investors are far from overstretched.At present though, EM investors bullish on the fundamental case for Macau Gaming stocks should be aware that this is largely an anti-consensus view.  74% of EM active funds do not have exposure and neither does the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index.  If it does pays off, it will provide valuable outperformance against both the benchmark and the active peer group in the year to come.  The analysis looks at the collective allocations in Macau Gaming stocks from a pool of 243 actively managed Global Emerging Market funds, with combined AUM of $460bn,

Macau Gaming:  Beaten up Sector Has Potential to Reverse

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Zhuhai Holdings Investment / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Our Zhuhai visit to property projects by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)</a> last weekend revealed the encouraging prospects of the city as a major player in the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area. Improving infrastructure, competitive property price, convenient transportation and enriching leisure and entertainment facilities are key attractiveness of the city.</p><p>We listed out some of the key companies in the city including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gree-electric-appliances-inc-of-zhuhai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7622:1" rel="noopener">Gree Electric Appliances (000651 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huafa-industrial-co-ltd-zhuhai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2329:1" rel="noopener">Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhuhai-port-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15664:1" rel="noopener">Zhuhai Port Co Ltd A (000507 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhuhai-holdings-investment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17863:1" rel="noopener">Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK)</a> as options for gaining exposure to the city. Along with our visit, we also observed a likely improvement in Zhuhai-Macau tourist traffic and this should be positive to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China Ltd (1928 HK)</a>. </p>

Our Zhuhai visit to property projects by Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK) and Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK) last weekend revealed the encouraging prospects of the city as a major player in the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area. Improving infrastructure, competitive property price, convenient transportation and enriching leisure and entertainment facilities are key attractiveness of the city.We listed out some of the key companies in the city including Gree Electric Appliances (000651 CH), Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH), Zhuhai Port Co Ltd A (000507 CH) and Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) as options for gaining exposure to the city. Along with our visit, we also observed a likely improvement in Zhuhai-Macau tourist traffic and this should be positive to Sands China Ltd (1928 HK). 

China on the Ground: Visit to Zhuhai - Exploring Investment Ideas in the Greater Bay Area

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Coca Cola Amatil, Shimachu, AMP, Hitachi, Jardines, Evergrande

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kwg-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12601:1" rel="noopener"></a>Reportedly <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/las-vegas-sands-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1" rel="noopener">Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)</a> is exploring the sale of its Las Vegas hotel-casinos, the result of which would concentrate its gaming portfolio in Macau and Singapore. <br><br><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellnex-telecom-sau" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21258:1" rel="noopener">Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)</a> is understood to be in advanced talks to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>’s European wireless tower business.</div>
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<p>Preceding my comments on LVS and CK Hutch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed as a % - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Reportedly Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) is exploring the sale of its Las Vegas hotel-casinos, the result of which would concentrate its gaming portfolio in Macau and Singapore.   Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) is understood to be in advanced talks to acquire CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)’s European wireless tower business.


Preceding my comments on LVS and CK Hutch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.




These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed as a % - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Macau/Sing Focus As LVS To Ditch LV; CK Hutch In Tower Talks

Hong Kong

Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts, retail malls, and casinos. The Company also manages convention and exhibition halls in Macau.

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Sands China (1928 HK)

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we...

Vermilion Research

Macau Gaming: Beaten up Sector Has Potential to Reverse

As sentiment begins to turn in Macau Gaming stocks, Global EM investors are positioned at their lowest levels in a decade.

Steven Holden

China on the Ground: Visit to Zhuhai - Exploring Investment Ideas in the Greater Bay Area

Our visit to property projects of Country Garden and Shimao in Zhuhai revealed the city's prospects as a key player in the Greater Bay Area. We...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Coca Cola Amatil, Shimachu, AMP, Hitachi, Jardines, Evergrande

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Macau/Sing Focus As LVS To Ditch LV; CK Hutch In Tower Talks

Reportedly Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) is exploring the sale of its Las Vegas hotel-casinos, the result of which would concentrate its gaming...

David Blennerhassett

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