Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Fitch downgrade spurs risk off as S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off;  US Treasuries sold off as well, but note new Treasury issuance are indeed coming </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY  Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4;  Japan had most of the selling yesterday but could see some follow-through;  EARNINGS; TDK, Sumi Elect misses; TOB: Itochu takes CTC private</li>
<li>NUGGET. ANA(9202) to begin offsetting GHG via the purchase of carbon credits. We estimate that if DAC  removes 10% of its emissions, 70% of OP will disappear!  Bears watching. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Fitch downgrade spurs risk off as S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off;  US Treasuries sold off as well, but note new Treasury issuance are indeed coming 
JAPAN. NKY  Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4;  Japan had most of the selling yesterday but could see some follow-through;  EARNINGS; TDK, Sumi Elect misses; TOB: Itochu takes CTC private
NUGGET. ANA(9202) to begin offsetting GHG via the purchase of carbon credits. We estimate that if DAC  removes 10% of its emissions, 70% of OP will disappear!  Bears watching. 


Ohayo Japan|Fitch Downgrade Spurs Global Risk Off; NUGGET: ANA(+JAL) - Direct Air Capture, Not Cheap

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>The latest commercial census published this Spring shows that Japan's wholesale sector remains more dominant than in many other major economies, partly explaining the low margins in some retail sectors.</li>
<li>Wholesale sales fell 8% between 2016 and 2021, but were still 10% higher than in 2012 due to survey changes over the previous decade.</li>
<li>Consolidation of wholesaling into the hands of larger corporations, with correspondingly higher power within the supply chain, is increasing and opportunities for M&amp;A and margin growth are significant.</li>
</ul>


The latest commercial census published this Spring shows that Japan's wholesale sector remains more dominant than in many other major economies, partly explaining the low margins in some retail sectors.
Wholesale sales fell 8% between 2016 and 2021, but were still 10% higher than in 2012 due to survey changes over the previous decade.
Consolidation of wholesaling into the hands of larger corporations, with correspondingly higher power within the supply chain, is increasing and opportunities for M&amp;A and margin growth are significant.


<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  EUR STOXX600 -1% as hikes, recession fears, overbought markets sap risk;  US-China Tensions Eases after Blinken China Trip; Ford Chairman Says US still can't Compete with China on EVs</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off;  Interest in investing in Japan spreading to start-ups; Uniqlo headwinds-China, China</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nikkei reported that Japanese Retail (Mrs Watanabe) fx traders turned momentum in FX; Watch for when that happens in Equities...</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  EUR STOXX600 -1% as hikes, recession fears, overbought markets sap risk;  US-China Tensions Eases after Blinken China Trip; Ford Chairman Says US still can't Compete with China on EVs
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off;  Interest in investing in Japan spreading to start-ups; Uniqlo headwinds-China, China
NUGGET. Nikkei reported that Japanese Retail (Mrs Watanabe) fx traders turned momentum in FX; Watch for when that happens in Equities...


Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>SGX has launched futures on the Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index. The index is based on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225</a> and uses screens to remove stocks that do not meet certain criteria.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index has a high degree of overlap and correlation and low tracking error with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>With increased interest in Climate/ESG investing, market participants can use the SGX-listed futures to get the same risk/reward characteristics as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225</a> with atleast 50% lower Greenhouse Gas emission intensity.</li>
</ul>


SGX has launched futures on the Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index. The index is based on the Nikkei225 and uses screens to remove stocks that do not meet certain criteria.
The Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index has a high degree of overlap and correlation and low tracking error with the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 
With increased interest in Climate/ESG investing, market participants can use the SGX-listed futures to get the same risk/reward characteristics as the Nikkei225 with atleast 50% lower Greenhouse Gas emission intensity.


SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan

Japan

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

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Itochu Corp (8001 JP)

Ohayo Japan|Fitch Downgrade Spurs Global Risk Off; NUGGET: ANA(+JAL) - Direct Air Capture, Not Cheap

Fitch downgrade spurs risk off; NKY Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4; Japan likely sees some follow-through on yesterday's sell-off; ...

Mark Chadwick

The State of Wholesaling in Japan

Getting a clear overview of Japan's wholesale industry is hard but every five years, Japan does a commercial census. The latest is just out, and we...

Michael Causton

Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift

Europe DOWN; US out; NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off; Interest in investing in Japan...

Mark Chadwick

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan

With increased interest in Climate investing, market participants can use the SGX listed futures to get a similar risk/reward as the Nikkei225 with...

Brian Freitas

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