Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtekt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12197:1" rel="noopener">JTEKT Corp (6473 JP)</a> followed suit.</li>
<li>It started with a selldown of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-aisin-7259-offering-sets-stage-for-first-toyota-group-full-unwind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aisin</a>. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.</li>
<li>Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.</li>
</ul>


Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. JTEKT Corp (6473 JP) followed suit.
It started with a selldown of Denso Corp (6902 JP), then Toyota Industries (6201 JP), now Aisin. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.
Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.


Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>As the world's second-largest automotive components supplier, Denso is strategically positioned to capitalize on the industry's shift towards electrification and autonomous driving. Its deep-rooted relationship with Toyota provides a stable foundation, while its expanding technological capabilities in semiconductors and software are key growth drivers.</li>
 <li>The company is navigating the transition from legacy internal combustion engine (ICE) components to future-focused products for electric vehicles (EVs) and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). This involves significant R&amp;D investment and a strategic pivot towards higher-margin, technology-intensive systems.</li>
 <li>While facing headwinds from the cyclical nature of the automotive industry, persistent margin pressures, and intense global competition, Denso's strong financial position, global manufacturing footprint, and commitment to innovation provide a resilient platform for long-term value creation.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  As the world's second-largest automotive components supplier, Denso is strategically positioned to capitalize on the industry's shift towards electrification and autonomous driving. Its deep-rooted relationship with Toyota provides a stable foundation, while its expanding technological capabilities in semiconductors and software are key growth drivers.
  The company is navigating the transition from legacy internal combustion engine (ICE) components to future-focused products for electric vehicles (EVs) and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). This involves significant R&amp;D investment and a strategic pivot towards higher-margin, technology-intensive systems.
  While facing headwinds from the cyclical nature of the automotive industry, persistent margin pressures, and intense global competition, Denso's strong financial position, global manufacturing footprint, and commitment to innovation provide a resilient platform for long-term value creation.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For this report we datamined autonomous driving technology (ADT) innovations.</li>
<li>Worldwide over the last decade the ADT sector has seen nearly 25% CAGR growth in patent filings, with over 40,000 patent family filings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delphi-automotive-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20870:1" rel="noopener">Aptiv PLC (APTV US)</a>, with a leadership position in several areas of ADT, strong financials, reasonable valuations and strategic partnerships stands out.  </li>
</ul>


For this report we datamined autonomous driving technology (ADT) innovations.
Worldwide over the last decade the ADT sector has seen nearly 25% CAGR growth in patent filings, with over 40,000 patent family filings.

Aptiv PLC (APTV US), with a leadership position in several areas of ADT, strong financials, reasonable valuations and strategic partnerships stands out.  


<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reported mid-day that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> made a ¥1.3trln takeover proposal to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> in February. That's big news. Last year Denso bought ~5%.</li>
<li>The goal would be to be dominant in power chips and to serve Toyota Group. There is a big Toshiba angle here too. Rohm bought into Toshiba, also has JVs.</li>
<li>Toshiba owns a big stake in Kioxia which trickles down to Rohm. Much will be made of the look-through valuation. It's complicated.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported mid-day that Denso Corp (6902 JP) made a ¥1.3trln takeover proposal to ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) in February. That's big news. Last year Denso bought ~5%.
The goal would be to be dominant in power chips and to serve Toyota Group. There is a big Toshiba angle here too. Rohm bought into Toshiba, also has JVs.
Toshiba owns a big stake in Kioxia which trickles down to Rohm. Much will be made of the look-through valuation. It's complicated.


[Japan M&A] Denso (6902) Reportedly Made a ¥1.3trln Takeover Proposal to Rohm (6963). Light & Iffy.

<ul>
<li>2wks ago I said "<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-m-a-activism-toyota-industries-6201-deal-could-be-announced-near-term" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a deal could be announced near-term.</a>" 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful. </li>
<li>But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won't. </li>
<li>The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.</li>
</ul>


2wks ago I said "a deal could be announced near-term." 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful. 
But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won't. 
The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.


[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover - It Looks Bad, and It's Worse Than It Looks

Japan

DENSO CORPORATION manufactures electronic parts for automobiles.  The Company's products include automobile air conditioners, air bags, ignition systems, generators, power steering systems, and spark plugs with iridium electrode. The Company also produces communication equipment for mobile navigation system.

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Denso Corp (6902 JP)

Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

8mos past the first large Toyota Group selldown in Denso (i.e. past lockup). Others have followed since. Toyota Inds and Toyota R.E. have ¥600bn to...

Travis Lundy

Primer: Denso Corp (6902 JP) - Aug 2026

As the world's second-largest automotive components supplier, Denso is strategically positioned to capitalize on the industry's shift towards...

αSK Primers

Autonomous Driving Leadership Landscape

Autonomous driving tech seeing surge in innovations to make journeys safer, more efficient, and intelligent. Welcome to the future of mobility.

Pyari Menon

[Japan M&A] Denso (6902) Reportedly Made a ¥1.3trln Takeover Proposal to Rohm (6963). Light & Iffy.

Denso has proposed a (lowball) takeover to Rohm, currently in an investment/restructuring phase, highlighting Rohm's value. The register is wide...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover - It Looks Bad, and It's Worse Than It Looks

Toyota Group have announced a deal to take over Toyota Industries. It's lower than expected. Worse, it is offensive in its deliberate lack of...

Travis Lundy

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