Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> has been taking series of measures to enhance shareholder returns through product portfolio revamp, moving towards reduced cross holdings and balance sheet optimization.</li>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the status of this journey towards better corporate governance as we term it = "Marching towards Nirvana"</li>
<li>We finally discuss our outlook, valuation and key risks towards attaining the stated goals of the company.</li>
</ul>



Aisin (7259 JP) has been taking series of measures to enhance shareholder returns through product portfolio revamp, moving towards reduced cross holdings and balance sheet optimization.
In this insight, we discuss the status of this journey towards better corporate governance as we term it = "Marching towards Nirvana"
We finally discuss our outlook, valuation and key risks towards attaining the stated goals of the company.


Aisin(7259 JP)-Marching Towards Nirvana: Product Portfolio Revamp, Zero Cross-Holdings & ROIC Uplift

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtekt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12197:1" rel="noopener">JTEKT Corp (6473 JP)</a> followed suit.</li>
<li>It started with a selldown of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-aisin-7259-offering-sets-stage-for-first-toyota-group-full-unwind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aisin</a>. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.</li>
<li>Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.</li>
</ul>


Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. JTEKT Corp (6473 JP) followed suit.
It started with a selldown of Denso Corp (6902 JP), then Toyota Industries (6201 JP), now Aisin. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.
Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.


Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

<ul>
<li>We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company. </li>
<li>Top-Picks in China are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yadea-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22706:1" rel="noopener">Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK)</a>. In Japan its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a>&amp;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>In Indian auto it is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a>.We also like the recently listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-prudential-amc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45499:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Prudential AMC (570643Z IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company. 
Top-Picks in China are Haier Smart Home (6690 HK),Midea Group (300 HK) &amp; Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK). In Japan its Suzuki Motor (7269 JP),ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)&amp;Aisin (7259 JP).
In Indian auto it is Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) &amp; Ashok Leyland (AL IN).We also like the recently listed ICICI Prudential AMC (570643Z IN).


Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - December 2025

<ul>
<li>Last Friday during market hours, Toyota Group member <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> announced earnings, guidance, its MTMP progress update, and a buyback. </li>
<li>Earnings were OK, all things considered. Guidance was disappointing, but tariff impact is real. The buyback headlines are huge (17%); reality is about half that given the stock price.</li>
<li>If they execute via TN-3 near-term, it just sets up the next one, but they may do 2/3 TN=3 and 1/3 market. There may be Toyota Industries factors involved.</li>
</ul>


Last Friday during market hours, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced earnings, guidance, its MTMP progress update, and a buyback. 
Earnings were OK, all things considered. Guidance was disappointing, but tariff impact is real. The buyback headlines are huge (17%); reality is about half that given the stock price.
If they execute via TN-3 near-term, it just sets up the next one, but they may do 2/3 TN=3 and 1/3 market. There may be Toyota Industries factors involved.


Aisin (7259) - Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP - Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback

<ul>
<li>2wks ago I said "<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-m-a-activism-toyota-industries-6201-deal-could-be-announced-near-term" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a deal could be announced near-term.</a>" 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful. </li>
<li>But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won't. </li>
<li>The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.</li>
</ul>


2wks ago I said "a deal could be announced near-term." 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful. 
But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won't. 
The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.


[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover - It Looks Bad, and It's Worse Than It Looks

Japan

Aisin Corporation manufactures and distributes motor vehicle parts. The Company produces drive train, transmissions, clutches, disc brakes, anti-skid brake system, suspensions, oil pumps, power windows, power door locks, and more. Aisin operates sales and production subsidiaries worldwide.

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Aisin (7259 JP)

Aisin(7259 JP)-Marching Towards Nirvana: Product Portfolio Revamp, Zero Cross-Holdings & ROIC Uplift

Aisin (7259 JP) is "Marching towards Nirvana" with improved shareholder returns through product revamp, zero cross holdings & balance sheet...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

8mos past the first large Toyota Group selldown in Denso (i.e. past lockup). Others have followed since. Toyota Inds and Toyota R.E. have ¥600bn to...

Travis Lundy

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - December 2025

Selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India based on bottom-up triggers, including Haier Smart Home, Suzuki Motor, Aisin, Rohm, Ashok...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Aisin (7259) - Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP - Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback

Aisin earnings were OK, guidance was what it was (tariffs are gonna hurt). A large buyback is helpful. They need to do more later and have the...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover - It Looks Bad, and It's Worse Than It Looks

Toyota Group have announced a deal to take over Toyota Industries. It's lower than expected. Worse, it is offensive in its deliberate lack of...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aisin(7259 JP)-Marching Towards Nirvana: Product Portfolio Revamp, Zero Cross-Holdings & ROIC Uplift

​Aisin (7259 JP) is "Marching towards Nirvana" with improved shareholder returns through product revamp, zero cross holdings & balance sheet...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

8mos past the first large Toyota Group selldown in Denso (i.e. past lockup). Others have followed since. Toyota Inds and Toyota R.E. have ¥600bn to...

Travis Lundy

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - December 2025

​Selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India based on bottom-up triggers, including Haier Smart Home, Suzuki Motor, Aisin, Rohm, Ashok...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Aisin (7259) - Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP - Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback

Aisin earnings were OK, guidance was what it was (tariffs are gonna hurt). A large buyback is helpful. They need to do more later and have the...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover - It Looks Bad, and It's Worse Than It Looks

Toyota Group have announced a deal to take over Toyota Industries. It's lower than expected. Worse, it is offensive in its deliberate lack of...

Travis Lundy

Aisin (7259 JP) is "Marching towards Nirvana" with improved shareholder returns through product revamp, zero cross holdings & balance sheet...

Selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India based on bottom-up triggers, including Haier Smart Home, Suzuki Motor, Aisin, Rohm, Ashok...