Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtekt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12197:1" rel="noopener">JTEKT Corp (6473 JP)</a> followed suit.</li>
<li>It started with a selldown of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-aisin-7259-offering-sets-stage-for-first-toyota-group-full-unwind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aisin</a>. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.</li>
<li>Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.</li>
</ul>


Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. JTEKT Corp (6473 JP) followed suit.
It started with a selldown of Denso Corp (6902 JP), then Toyota Industries (6201 JP), now Aisin. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.
Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.


Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>At ¥17,340/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</strong></a> is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a>'s words: "<em>Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise</em>."</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In Travis Lundy's words: "Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise."
Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Don't Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) - Buy More

<ul>
<li>Last Friday during market hours, Toyota Group member <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> announced earnings, guidance, its MTMP progress update, and a buyback. </li>
<li>Earnings were OK, all things considered. Guidance was disappointing, but tariff impact is real. The buyback headlines are huge (17%); reality is about half that given the stock price.</li>
<li>If they execute via TN-3 near-term, it just sets up the next one, but they may do 2/3 TN=3 and 1/3 market. There may be Toyota Industries factors involved.</li>
</ul>


Last Friday during market hours, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced earnings, guidance, its MTMP progress update, and a buyback. 
Earnings were OK, all things considered. Guidance was disappointing, but tariff impact is real. The buyback headlines are huge (17%); reality is about half that given the stock price.
If they execute via TN-3 near-term, it just sets up the next one, but they may do 2/3 TN=3 and 1/3 market. There may be Toyota Industries factors involved.


Aisin (7259) - Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP - Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback

<ul>
<li>2wks ago I said "<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-m-a-activism-toyota-industries-6201-deal-could-be-announced-near-term" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a deal could be announced near-term.</a>" 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful. </li>
<li>But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won't. </li>
<li>The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.</li>
</ul>


2wks ago I said "a deal could be announced near-term." 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful. 
But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won't. 
The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.


[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover - It Looks Bad, and It's Worse Than It Looks

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Below is a sample of the unloved Japanese stocks we focus on at Azabu Research, with key valuation metrics and latest news.</li>
<li>The average PBR in this week’s list is 0.5x and the average P/E is 5.9x.</li>
<li>Most of the stocks in this week’s round up are related to either the auto supply chain or the electric power grid.</li>
</ul>


Below is a sample of the unloved Japanese stocks we focus on at Azabu Research, with key valuation metrics and latest news.
The average PBR in this week’s list is 0.5x and the average P/E is 5.9x.
Most of the stocks in this week’s round up are related to either the auto supply chain or the electric power grid.


Japan

Aisin Corporation manufactures and distributes motor vehicle parts. The Company produces drive train, transmissions, clutches, disc brakes, anti-skid brake system, suspensions, oil pumps, power windows, power door locks, and more. Aisin operates sales and production subsidiaries worldwide.

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Aisin (7259 JP)

Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

8mos past the first large Toyota Group selldown in Denso (i.e. past lockup). Others have followed since. Toyota Inds and Toyota R.E. have ¥600bn to...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Don't Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) - Buy More

At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries is cheap. Corporate governance is shocking. Stay long. Buy more. This deal, as structured, is block-able, even...

David Blennerhassett

Aisin (7259) - Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP - Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback

Aisin earnings were OK, guidance was what it was (tariffs are gonna hurt). A large buyback is helpful. They need to do more later and have the...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover - It Looks Bad, and It's Worse Than It Looks

Toyota Group have announced a deal to take over Toyota Industries. It's lower than expected. Worse, it is offensive in its deliberate lack of...

Travis Lundy

Unloved Japan Round-Up

Some Autos, Steel, and Electric Power companies in Japan now offering yields that compete with U.S. Treasuries. The end of the hurricane season...

Michael Allen

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