President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

High capacity HDDs, particularly nearline drives for enterprise and hyper scale data centers are the one growth area for HDDs going forward.  We project that growth in demand for nearline storage could stop the decline in HDD shipments by 2024-2025.   The growth of capacity-oriented nearline drives will result in more components per drive out to 2025.  We project that total shipments of heads and media will exceed the peak in 2014 by 2024-2025, largely due to the growth of high capacity (many heads and media) hard disk drives.

High capacity HDDs, particularly nearline drives for enterprise and hyper scale data centers are the one growth area for HDDs going forward.  We project that growth in demand for nearline storage could stop the decline in HDD shipments by 2024-2025.   The growth of capacity-oriented nearline drives will result in more components per drive out to 2025.  We project that total shipments of heads and media will exceed the peak in 2014 by 2024-2025, largely due to the growth of high capacity (many heads and media) hard disk drives.

HDD C3Q Results, Continued Decline in Units but Growth in High Capacity HDDs

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

We mentioned about the possible launch of 5G and the process involved in ‘ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/5g-for-the-next-big-turn-of-a-new-decade" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20444" rel="noopener">5G for the Next Big Turn of a New Decade</a>’. It was expected that 5G networks would successfully hit the markets by early 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to uncertainties on this.
This insight takes a look at the current stage of the 5G launch process and the Covid impact on mobile phone manufacturers and telecommunication providers (with regards to 5G).
<ul>
<li>According to 3GPP’s (one of the most important bodies in planning the launch of 5G networks) IMT2020 plan, two phases have to be completed for the 5G launch.</li>
<li>The first phase, which involves releasing-15 standards for 5G (Non-Standalone and Standalone), was successfully completed by June last year. This was also evidenced by some mobile manufacturers like LG and Samsung, releasing 5G-enabled phones through 2019.</li>
<li>However, for successful deployment, phase 2 has to be completed, and completion was expected by early 2020. However, it seems that the phase is likely to run through to the end of 2020.</li>
<li>There is still a possibility for the successful deployment of 5G in 2020, though towards the end of the year. This is if no second-wave of the coronavirus impacts the economy, especially China’s.</li>
<li>That risk apart, except for Apple, most mobile manufacturers have been releasing 5G enabled phones since 2019. Samsung is optimistic on meeting its target launch of new 5G models in August this year, despite the pandemic.</li>
<li>Mobile carriers across countries also expect expansion of 5G services through 2020.</li>
<li>China is taking the lead in the 5G race.</li>
<li>The delay in 5G is likely to primarily impact the semiconductor manufacturers.</li>
</ul>
We go through the details below.

We mentioned about the possible launch of 5G and the process involved in ‘ 5G for the Next Big Turn of a New Decade’. It was expected that 5G networks would successfully hit the markets by early 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to uncertainties on this.
This insight takes a look at the current stage of the 5G launch process and the Covid impact on mobile phone manufacturers and telecommunication providers (with regards to 5G).

According to 3GPP’s (one of the most important bodies in planning the launch of 5G networks) IMT2020 plan, two phases have to be completed for the 5G launch.
The first phase, which involves releasing-15 standards for 5G (Non-Standalone and Standalone), was successfully completed by June last year. This was also evidenced by some mobile manufacturers like LG and Samsung, releasing 5G-enabled phones through 2019.
However, for successful deployment, phase 2 has to be completed, and completion was expected by early 2020. However, it seems that the phase is likely to run through to the end of 2020.
There is still a possibility for the successful deployment of 5G in 2020, though towards the end of the year. This is if no second-wave of the coronavirus impacts the economy, especially China’s.
That risk apart, except for Apple, most mobile manufacturers have been releasing 5G enabled phones since 2019. Samsung is optimistic on meeting its target launch of new 5G models in August this year, despite the pandemic.
Mobile carriers across countries also expect expansion of 5G services through 2020.
China is taking the lead in the 5G race.
The delay in 5G is likely to primarily impact the semiconductor manufacturers.

We go through the details below.

Will 2020 See Successful Deployment of 5G?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/787/original/2020-03-26_05-50-57.png?1585169482" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124787"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>EARLY WARNINGS - This Insight is the second is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues and profits from the unfolding Covid-19 recession. Tuesday saw twenty-one forecast revisions by twenty companies and one withdrawal of forecasts and dividend cancellation by noodle restaurant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gourmet-kineya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11937:1" rel="noopener">Gourmet Kineya (9850 JP)</a>. Jewellery retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/happiness-and-d-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1246:1" rel="noopener">Happiness and D (3174 JP)</a> also reported interim results. The most significant revision was from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18847:1" rel="noopener">TDK (6762 JP)</a> shown above.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/792/original/File%202020-03-26%204%2009%2018.jpeg?1585171207" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124792"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • covid19japan.com</div>COVID-19 - As we discussed in an earlier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-hit-the-boj-bid-and-wait-for-the-absolute-value-opportunity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37670" rel="noopener">Insight</a>, Japan's 'softly-softly' approach to the virus was likely to be 'tested' as the country was being encouraged to operate as close to normal last weekend. Yesterday saw the largest jump in new cases in one day since the outbreak Japan - 97 and 2 more deaths bringing the totals to 1,299 confirmed cases and 44 deaths from 23,521 people tested. Tokyo is now the epicentre with 220 cases which has prompted Governor Koike to recommend that people work from home as much as possible and avoid leaving home at this weekend as well as eating and drinking in groups - so no hanami parties! Despite the Governor's preference for cancellation and her scathing comments about an event in Saitama last weekend, another K-1 event to be held at Korakuen will go ahead behind closed doors. The Olympic torch relays have been cancelled. It remains to be seen if these persuasive measures will slow the spread. The rational assumption would be that Tokyo is now on the same path as London and New York.

Source • Japan AnalyticsEARLY WARNINGS - This Insight is the second is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues and profits from the unfolding Covid-19 recession. Tuesday saw twenty-one forecast revisions by twenty companies and one withdrawal of forecasts and dividend cancellation by noodle restaurant Gourmet Kineya (9850 JP). Jewellery retailer Happiness and D (3174 JP) also reported interim results. The most significant revision was from TDK (6762 JP) shown above.Source • covid19japan.comCOVID-19 - As we discussed in an earlier Insight, Japan's 'softly-softly' approach to the virus was likely to be 'tested' as the country was being encouraged to operate as close to normal last weekend. Yesterday saw the largest jump in new cases in one day since the outbreak Japan - 97 and 2 more deaths bringing the totals to 1,299 confirmed cases and 44 deaths from 23,521 people tested. Tokyo is now the epicentre with 220 cases which has prompted Governor Koike to recommend that people work from home as much as possible and avoid leaving home at this weekend as well as eating and drinking in groups - so no hanami parties! Despite the Governor's preference for cancellation and her scathing comments about an event in Saitama last weekend, another K-1 event to be held at Korakuen will go ahead behind closed doors. The Olympic torch relays have been cancelled. It remains to be seen if these persuasive measures will slow the spread. The rational assumption would be that Tokyo is now on the same path as London and New York.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions Early Warning System (EWS) 25th March

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a> posted strong earnings, combined with a 4% share buyback and a dividend hike to JPY 70/share, helping push the share price higher. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18847:1" rel="noopener">TDK Corp (6762 JP)</a> invests in the AI ecosystem, advanced sensors, and solid-state battery lines, thus its share price will play catch-up somewhat later despite its undervaluation.</li>
<li>Buyback list with more than a 4% share buyback is discussed, and as long as the buyback is partnered with strong earnings results, the share price upward momentum sustains.</li>
</ul>



Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) posted strong earnings, combined with a 4% share buyback and a dividend hike to JPY 70/share, helping push the share price higher. 

TDK Corp (6762 JP) invests in the AI ecosystem, advanced sensors, and solid-state battery lines, thus its share price will play catch-up somewhat later despite its undervaluation.
Buyback list with more than a 4% share buyback is discussed, and as long as the buyback is partnered with strong earnings results, the share price upward momentum sustains.


Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q results in the fall. Their hope is that they get close enough to the up and coming actual results so that they do not have to change anything again before the year closes. We have screened for companies that have significantly changed their full-year guidance.

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q results in the fall. Their hope is that they get close enough to the up and coming actual results so that they do not have to change anything again before the year closes. We have screened for companies that have significantly changed their full-year guidance. 

2Q Earnings Is the Time for Full-Year Guidance Revisions. See Who Changed Their Numbers the Most....

Japan

TDK CORPORATION manufactures electronics components such as magnetic tapes and ferrite cores.  The Company also sells power supplies, inductors, transformers, ceramic capacitors, magnets, LAN (Local Area Network) components, sensors, and semiconductors.  TDK markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TDK Corp (6762 JP)

HDD C3Q Results, Continued Decline in Units but Growth in High Capacity HDDs

HDD Annual Shipments in continued decline, high capacity HDD shipments expected to grow. C3Q benefited from consumer sales and continued capacity...

Thomas Coughlin

Will 2020 See Successful Deployment of 5G?

We mentioned about the possible launch of 5G and the process involved in ‘ 5G for the Next Big Turn of a New Decade’. It was expected that 5G...

Aqila Ali

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions Early Warning System (EWS) 25th March

EARLY WARNINGS - This Insight is the second is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues...

Campbell Gunn

Murata (6981): Vs TDK - Near Vs Mid Term

Murata posts strong earnings, buyback, and dividend hike, boosting share price. TDK Corp invests in AI, sensors, and batteries, set for share...

Henry Soediarko

2Q Earnings Is the Time for Full-Year Guidance Revisions. See Who Changed Their Numbers the Most....

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q...

Custom Products Group

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HDD C3Q Results, Continued Decline in Units but Growth in High Capacity HDDs

HDD Annual Shipments in continued decline, high capacity HDD shipments expected to grow. C3Q benefited from consumer sales and continued capacity...

Thomas Coughlin

Will 2020 See Successful Deployment of 5G?

We mentioned about the possible launch of 5G and the process involved in ‘ 5G for the Next Big Turn of a New Decade’. It was expected that 5G...

Aqila Ali

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions Early Warning System (EWS) 25th March

EARLY WARNINGS - This Insight is the second is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues...

Campbell Gunn

Murata (6981): Vs TDK - Near Vs Mid Term

​Murata posts strong earnings, buyback, and dividend hike, boosting share price. TDK Corp invests in AI, sensors, and batteries, set for share...

Henry Soediarko

2Q Earnings Is the Time for Full-Year Guidance Revisions. See Who Changed Their Numbers the Most....

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q...

Custom Products Group

Murata posts strong earnings, buyback, and dividend hike, boosting share price. TDK Corp invests in AI, sensors, and batteries, set for share...