Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.</li>
<li>A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.
A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.
Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.


Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>HDD capacity shipments exceeded 1 ZB for the first time in 2020.  Continued growth of nearline colder storage will drive HDD shipping capacity to about 3 times that amount by 2026.  Q4 2020 was up due to renewed nearline HDD strength and increased demand for other applications.</p>

HDD capacity shipments exceeded 1 ZB for the first time in 2020.  Continued growth of nearline colder storage will drive HDD shipping capacity to about 3 times that amount by 2026.  Q4 2020 was up due to renewed nearline HDD strength and increased demand for other applications.

HDD Capacity Shipments Exceeded 1ZB in 2020, 3ZB by 2026

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

Chaozhou Three-Circle / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chaozhou Three-Circle launched Hongkong IPO to raise nearly HK$7.2B. They manufacture electronic ceramic materials and components used in automobiles, smartphones, data centers and telecom base stations.</li>
<li>Company intends to use the proceeds for overseas expansion, automation, enhance supply resilience, for technology R&amp;D, materials innovation and working capital.</li>
<li>Chaozhou Three-Circle has witnessed sustained growth and margin stability. Valuation looks relatively fair and comfortable. Investors can rely on the sustained growth momentum and also incremental growth possibilities.</li>
</ul>


Chaozhou Three-Circle launched Hongkong IPO to raise nearly HK$7.2B. They manufacture electronic ceramic materials and components used in automobiles, smartphones, data centers and telecom base stations.
Company intends to use the proceeds for overseas expansion, automation, enhance supply resilience, for technology R&amp;D, materials innovation and working capital.
Chaozhou Three-Circle has witnessed sustained growth and margin stability. Valuation looks relatively fair and comfortable. Investors can rely on the sustained growth momentum and also incremental growth possibilities.


Chaozhou Three-Circle IPO: Sustained Growth, Margin Stability Makes the Issue Attractive

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chaozhou-three-circle-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50297:1" rel="noopener">Chaozhou Three-Circle (6951 HK)</a>, a key player in electronic ceramic materials and components, will benefit from the demand and scenario upgrades in downstream sectors.</li>
<li>For FY25-28, it will generate an EPS CAGR of 26%, fueled by both revenue growth and margin expansion. Its 1Q26 earnings have already surged by 48.5%.</li>
<li>At the maximum IPO price of HK$100.30, the H-share is priced at a steep 49% HA discount. Re-rating to the global average FY26 PER will give a 21.3% upside.</li>
</ul>



Chaozhou Three-Circle (6951 HK), a key player in electronic ceramic materials and components, will benefit from the demand and scenario upgrades in downstream sectors.
For FY25-28, it will generate an EPS CAGR of 26%, fueled by both revenue growth and margin expansion. Its 1Q26 earnings have already surged by 48.5%.
At the maximum IPO price of HK$100.30, the H-share is priced at a steep 49% HA discount. Re-rating to the global average FY26 PER will give a 21.3% upside.


Chaozhou Three-Circle (6951 HK) IPO: Priced Nicely

Japan

TDK CORPORATION manufactures electronics components such as magnetic tapes and ferrite cores.  The Company also sells power supplies, inductors, transformers, ceramic capacitors, magnets, LAN (Local Area Network) components, sensors, and semiconductors.  TDK markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
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TDK Corp (6762 JP)

Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Stick with Japan & India. $ACWI bounce at $86 would be ideal for the bullish case (i.e., establishing a higher low), but we could easily see a test...

Vermilion Research

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

HDD Capacity Shipments Exceeded 1ZB in 2020, 3ZB by 2026

HDD capacity shipments exceeded 1 ZB for the first time in 2020. Continued growth of nearline colder storage will drive HDD shipping capacity to...

Thomas Coughlin

Chaozhou Three-Circle IPO: Sustained Growth, Margin Stability Makes the Issue Attractive

Chaozhou Three-Circle launches HK IPO to raise HK$7.2B for expansion, innovation, and growth, with strong performance and fair valuation....

Tina Banerjee

Chaozhou Three-Circle (6951 HK) IPO: Priced Nicely

Chaozhou Three-Circle is poised to gain from the demand and scenario upgrades in downstream sectors. It has an encouraging earnings outlook and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Stick with Japan & India. $ACWI bounce at $86 would be ideal for the bullish case (i.e., establishing a higher low), but we could easily see a test...

Vermilion Research

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

HDD Capacity Shipments Exceeded 1ZB in 2020, 3ZB by 2026

HDD capacity shipments exceeded 1 ZB for the first time in 2020. Continued growth of nearline colder storage will drive HDD shipping capacity to...

Thomas Coughlin

Chaozhou Three-Circle IPO: Sustained Growth, Margin Stability Makes the Issue Attractive

​Chaozhou Three-Circle launches HK IPO to raise HK$7.2B for expansion, innovation, and growth, with strong performance and fair valuation....

Tina Banerjee

Chaozhou Three-Circle (6951 HK) IPO: Priced Nicely

​Chaozhou Three-Circle is poised to gain from the demand and scenario upgrades in downstream sectors. It has an encouraging earnings outlook and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chaozhou Three-Circle launches HK IPO to raise HK$7.2B for expansion, innovation, and growth, with strong performance and fair valuation....

Chaozhou Three-Circle is poised to gain from the demand and scenario upgrades in downstream sectors. It has an encouraging earnings outlook and a...