Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible</li>
<li>Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD's share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high</li>
<li>AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform </li>
</ul>


AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible
Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD's share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high
AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform 


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Steady loss of market share to AMD in x86 PC and Server. Single design win for the GPU Max, overall no AI or Accelerator roadmap.  </li>
<li>Steady deterioration of the financials. Collapse in NON-GAAP Operating Profits, leading to negative Free Cash Flow, leading to increasing Net Debt. </li>
<li>Most damaging, IMO was during 3Q24 conference call (1st Nov 2024) when the CFO David Zinsner said: don’t expect a recovery before 2026. CEO Gelsinger was gone 1 month later. </li>
</ul>


Steady loss of market share to AMD in x86 PC and Server. Single design win for the GPU Max, overall no AI or Accelerator roadmap.  
Steady deterioration of the financials. Collapse in NON-GAAP Operating Profits, leading to negative Free Cash Flow, leading to increasing Net Debt. 
Most damaging, IMO was during 3Q24 conference call (1st Nov 2024) when the CFO David Zinsner said: don’t expect a recovery before 2026. CEO Gelsinger was gone 1 month later. 


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  </li>
<li>AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.</li>
<li>TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. </li>
</ul>


Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  
AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.
TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. 


How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

<ul>
<li>September 2024 revenues of NT$251.87 billion, an increase of 0.4% MoM and an increase of 39.6% YoY.</li>
<li>Year to date revenue through September 2024 now totals NT$2,025.85 billion, an increase of 31.9% YoY.</li>
<li>Anticipating Q4 revenue forecast of $25.7 billion, up 10% QoQ. This would mean full year 2024 revenues of $88.8 billion, a 28.3% YoY increase</li>
</ul>


September 2024 revenues of NT$251.87 billion, an increase of 0.4% MoM and an increase of 39.6% YoY.
Year to date revenue through September 2024 now totals NT$2,025.85 billion, an increase of 31.9% YoY.
Anticipating Q4 revenue forecast of $25.7 billion, up 10% QoQ. This would mean full year 2024 revenues of $88.8 billion, a 28.3% YoY increase


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. </li>
<li>With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   </li>
<li>AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.</li>
</ul>


The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. 
With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   
AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.


All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

AMD's Lisa Su Named Time CEO Of The Year

AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who pulled off what many thought to be impossible....

William Keating

Intel: A Graphic Novel Of A Train Wreck

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong: losing market share to AMD, no success for GPU or Gaudi, financial deterioration, and finally CFO...

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Q324 Earnings Preview

September 24 revenues of NT$251.87 billion, +0.4% MoM & +39.6% YoY. YTD revenue NT$2,025.85 billion, +31.9% YoY. Anticipating FY2024 revenues of...

William Keating

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AMD's Lisa Su Named Time CEO Of The Year

AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who pulled off what many thought to be impossible....

William Keating

Intel: A Graphic Novel Of A Train Wreck

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong: losing market share to AMD, no success for GPU or Gaudi, financial deterioration, and finally CFO...

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Q324 Earnings Preview

September 24 revenues of NT$251.87 billion, +0.4% MoM & +39.6% YoY. YTD revenue NT$2,025.85 billion, +31.9% YoY. Anticipating FY2024 revenues of...

William Keating

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for ​Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...