Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;</li>
<li>China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;</li>
<li>ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.</li>
</ul>


China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;
China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;
ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.


Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Early in the review period, we forecast 3 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the April rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.6-1.6x ADV to buy in the adds and between 2-4.7x ADV to sell in the deletes.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a wide margin over the short-term and the medium-term. There could be more prior to the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Early in the review period, we forecast 3 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the April rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.6-1.6x ADV to buy in the adds and between 2-4.7x ADV to sell in the deletes.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a wide margin over the short-term and the medium-term. There could be more prior to the end of the review period.


FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes as Adds Rally Bigly

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.</li>
<li>We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  </li>
<li>It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Latest TSMC Price Hike -- Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative</li>
<li>Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC's Largest Customer in 2025E</li>
<li>SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings </li>
</ul>


Latest TSMC Price Hike -- Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative
Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC's Largest Customer in 2025E
SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix's HBM Win

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>ASML CEO and delegation to visit TSMC, showcasing collaboration in semiconductor industry</li><li>US adds 13 firms, majority Chinese, to entity list amid ongoing tensions</li><li>Samsung Display to unveil 18.1-inch foldable OLED panel at CES 2025, showcasing advancements in display technology</li></ul>

ASML CEO and delegation to visit TSMC, showcasing collaboration in semiconductor industryUS adds 13 firms, majority Chinese, to entity list amid ongoing tensionsSamsung Display to unveil 18.1-inch foldable OLED panel at CES 2025, showcasing advancements in display technology

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Jan-2025): ASML CEO visits TSMC next week.

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes as Adds Rally Bigly

There could be 3 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the April rebalance. Passives need to trade 0.6-4.7x ADV in the changes. The...

Brian Freitas

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix's HBM Win

TSMC's price hike and potential shift in top customers could impact margins, while SK Hynix maintains lead over Samsung in earnings with focus on...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Jan-2025): ASML CEO visits TSMC next week.

ASML CEO to visit TSMC, US adds Chinese firms to entity list, AI predicted to dominate semiconductor market by 2030, Samsung Display to showcase...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes as Adds Rally Bigly

There could be 3 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the April rebalance. Passives need to trade 0.6-4.7x ADV in the changes. The...

Brian Freitas

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix's HBM Win

​TSMC's price hike and potential shift in top customers could impact margins, while SK Hynix maintains lead over Samsung in earnings with focus on...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Jan-2025): ASML CEO visits TSMC next week.

ASML CEO to visit TSMC, US adds Chinese firms to entity list, AI predicted to dominate semiconductor market by 2030, Samsung Display to showcase...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TSMC's price hike and potential shift in top customers could impact margins, while SK Hynix maintains lead over Samsung in earnings with focus on...