Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday 21 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a> made an <a href="https://www.lycorp.co.jp/en/ir/news/auto_20250321598131/pdfFile.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> it had received all the required approvals and would launch the Tender Offer on 24 March. </li>
<li>Some were upset about the price originally but unlike other deals, this one traded below terms for three months since original announcement. Three activish funds had pitched in their 30%.</li>
<li>This is now trading tight, and will continue to trade tight. If you own, whether you hold through early May depends on whether you are bullish or bearish the market.</li>
</ul>


On Friday 21 March, LY (4689 JP) made an announcement it had received all the required approvals and would launch the Tender Offer on 24 March. 
Some were upset about the price originally but unlike other deals, this one traded below terms for three months since original announcement. Three activish funds had pitched in their 30%.
This is now trading tight, and will continue to trade tight. If you own, whether you hold through early May depends on whether you are bullish or bearish the market.


LY Corp (4689) Launches Beenos (3328) Tender Offer at ¥4,000

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amazon’s growing lead in Japan’s e-commerce market looks increasingly inexorable. </li>
<li>While growth in Japan was slower than some other Amazon markets, it still outpaced Rakuten. LY Corp did better but partly in reaction to poor results the year before. </li>
<li>Meanwhile, a recent survey suggests growing interest in brand-operated online stores, particularly to read more in-depth content and use brand-based points.</li>
</ul>


Amazon’s growing lead in Japan’s e-commerce market looks increasingly inexorable. 
While growth in Japan was slower than some other Amazon markets, it still outpaced Rakuten. LY Corp did better but partly in reaction to poor results the year before. 
Meanwhile, a recent survey suggests growing interest in brand-operated online stores, particularly to read more in-depth content and use brand-based points.


The Big 3: Amazon’s Lead Grows as Rakuten Stumbles

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Equity Capital Markets

SRE Holdings Corp / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sre-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29672:1" rel="noopener">SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP)</a> does a business in AI Cloud&amp;Consulting for the real estate, finance, and Life &amp; Healthcare business. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> is selling a stake.</li>
<li>The offering is for about US$50mm assuming a 10% discount today's close. It is not clear how much this was expected but there is a decent-sized short position. </li>
<li>The stock has its ups and downs, and recently decided it liked Q3 earnings and guidance. That bodes well for the offering.</li>
</ul>



SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP) does a business in AI Cloud&amp;Consulting for the real estate, finance, and Life &amp; Healthcare business. Sony Corp (6758 JP) is selling a stake.
The offering is for about US$50mm assuming a 10% discount today's close. It is not clear how much this was expected but there is a decent-sized short position. 
The stock has its ups and downs, and recently decided it liked Q3 earnings and guidance. That bodes well for the offering.


Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block - AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Key events in Japanese retailing this week include Muji raising forecasts for this FY and opening its biggest store ever, at 8,500 sqm as it goes after the food market.</li>
<li>LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos in a bid to capture more of the fast-expanding cross-border e-commerce market.</li>
<li>Fast growing, and Zozo-owned, online mall Yutori buys a cosmetics brand and in a sign of the serous labour shortage, Familymart moves to single manager franchises.</li>
</ul>


Key events in Japanese retailing this week include Muji raising forecasts for this FY and opening its biggest store ever, at 8,500 sqm as it goes after the food market.
LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos in a bid to capture more of the fast-expanding cross-border e-commerce market.
Fast growing, and Zozo-owned, online mall Yutori buys a cosmetics brand and in a sign of the serous labour shortage, Familymart moves to single manager franchises.


Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

LY Corp (4689) Launches Beenos (3328) Tender Offer at ¥4,000

LY Corp now has all its anti-trust approvals and will launch its Tender Offer for Beenos at ¥4,000/share on Monday. It's basically a done deal and...

Travis Lundy

The Big 3: Amazon’s Lead Grows as Rakuten Stumbles

Amazon continues to dominate Japan's e-commerce market, outpacing Rakuten in growth despite slower progress compared to other markets.

Michael Causton

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Japan's Retail Week

Japanese retailing sees major developments: Muji expands, LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos, Yutori buys cosmetics brand, and Familymart shifts to single...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LY Corp (4689) Launches Beenos (3328) Tender Offer at ¥4,000

LY Corp now has all its anti-trust approvals and will launch its Tender Offer for Beenos at ¥4,000/share on Monday. It's basically a done deal and...

Travis Lundy

The Big 3: Amazon’s Lead Grows as Rakuten Stumbles

​Amazon continues to dominate Japan's e-commerce market, outpacing Rakuten in growth despite slower progress compared to other markets.

Michael Causton

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block - AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support

Sony (for whom SRE Holdings was originally named is selling 15+% of their 36.6% stake in the company. Revenues are up. Earnings are rebounding....

Travis Lundy

Japan's Retail Week

​Japanese retailing sees major developments: Muji expands, LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos, Yutori buys cosmetics brand, and Familymart shifts to single...

Michael Causton

Amazon continues to dominate Japan's e-commerce market, outpacing Rakuten in growth despite slower progress compared to other markets.

Japanese retailing sees major developments: Muji expands, LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos, Yutori buys cosmetics brand, and Familymart shifts to single...