HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Bright Smart Securities / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-commodities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a> rallied by 132% since our last Insight, fueled by the euphoria in the brokerage and securities sector on the HK government's stablecoin initiative.</li>
<li>At HK$16.44, it is at 100% PER premium to the sector average, ex-<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>. The risk-reward payoff now looks less attractive.</li>
<li>It also implies net profit to grow by 150% by FY31F and priced at 18x PER. This appears stretched in the near term, though long-term prospects stay decent. </li>
</ul>



Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) rallied by 132% since our last Insight, fueled by the euphoria in the brokerage and securities sector on the HK government's stablecoin initiative.
At HK$16.44, it is at 100% PER premium to the sector average, ex-Guotai Junan International (1788 HK). The risk-reward payoff now looks less attractive.
It also implies net profit to grow by 150% by FY31F and priced at 18x PER. This appears stretched in the near term, though long-term prospects stay decent. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a> will benefit from Ant Financial's technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years. </li>
<li>We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.  </li>
</ul>



Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) will benefit from Ant Financial's technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.
With Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years. 
We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.  


Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

<ul>
<li>The offer price of HK$3.28 by Ant Financial is attractive - 2.9x P/B and 8.3x PER, both on 12-month forward basis. It is also appealing relative to peers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a>'s massive outperformance against the HSI showed its strong marketing and execution capabilities. Ant Financial will bring many synergies to it.  </li>
<li>Risk-Averse investors may take this opportunity to cash out, but we are on the long-term bull camp and prefer to hold for further upside. </li>
</ul>


The offer price of HK$3.28 by Ant Financial is attractive - 2.9x P/B and 8.3x PER, both on 12-month forward basis. It is also appealing relative to peers.

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)'s massive outperformance against the HSI showed its strong marketing and execution capabilities. Ant Financial will bring many synergies to it.  
Risk-Averse investors may take this opportunity to cash out, but we are on the long-term bull camp and prefer to hold for further upside. 


Bright Smart (1428 HK): To Sell or Not to Sell?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK)</a>'s Chairman entered a SPA with Ant Holdco to sell his 50.55% stake at HK$3.28, a 7.5% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The SPA completion requires approval from both the NDRC and SFC. Unusually, Ant has the option of extending the long-stop date, reflecting a possibility of extra scrutiny by the regulators.</li>
<li>Under Rule 26.1 of the Code, upon completion, Ant will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$3.28. The MGO price is final and a knockout offer.  </li>
</ul>



Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK)'s Chairman entered a SPA with Ant Holdco to sell his 50.55% stake at HK$3.28, a 7.5% premium to the last close.
The SPA completion requires approval from both the NDRC and SFC. Unusually, Ant has the option of extending the long-stop date, reflecting a possibility of extra scrutiny by the regulators.
Under Rule 26.1 of the Code, upon completion, Ant will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$3.28. The MGO price is final and a knockout offer.  


Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK)</a> is in a trading halt “<em>pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers, which constitutes inside information of the Company.</em>”</li>
<li>It is likely that Mr Lum, the founder and chairman, has entered a sale and purchase agreement to sell his controlling stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer (MGO).   </li>
<li>The shares are at an all-time high and have a P/B multiple that is a material premium to peers. The MGO price is likely to be lower than last close.</li>
</ul>



Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK) is in a trading halt “pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers, which constitutes inside information of the Company.”
It is likely that Mr Lum, the founder and chairman, has entered a sale and purchase agreement to sell his controlling stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer (MGO).   
The shares are at an all-time high and have a P/B multiple that is a material premium to peers. The MGO price is likely to be lower than last close.


Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): A Takeunder MGO?

Hong Kong

Shenwan Hongyuan HK Ltd, through its subsidiaries, provides loan-financing, securities, futures and equity options trading and dealing, underwriting, and corporate advisory services.  The Company also is involved in cross-border financing and merger and acquisition by foreign investors.

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Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK)

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Valuation Update

Bright Smart surged 132% on HK stablecoin hype. Now at a 100% PER premium to the sector average, the risk-reward payoff is less appealing despite...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart (1428 HK): To Sell or Not to Sell?

Ant Financial's attractive offer price of HK$3.28 for Bright Smart is appealing relative to peers, and is at a good premium to historical P/B and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28

The Chairman is selling out to Ant at a knockout price (HK$3.28). Completion will trigger an unconditional MGO. Timing is the key risk, which is...

Arun George

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): A Takeunder MGO?

It is likely that Mr Lum, the founder, has entered a sale and purchase agreement to sell his controlling stake, which would trigger an MGO.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Valuation Update

​Bright Smart surged 132% on HK stablecoin hype. Now at a 100% PER premium to the sector average, the risk-reward payoff is less appealing despite...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

​Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart (1428 HK): To Sell or Not to Sell?

​Ant Financial's attractive offer price of HK$3.28 for Bright Smart is appealing relative to peers, and is at a good premium to historical P/B and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28

The Chairman is selling out to Ant at a knockout price (HK$3.28). Completion will trigger an unconditional MGO. Timing is the key risk, which is...

Arun George

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): A Takeunder MGO?

It is likely that Mr Lum, the founder, has entered a sale and purchase agreement to sell his controlling stake, which would trigger an MGO.

Arun George

Bright Smart surged 132% on HK stablecoin hype. Now at a 100% PER premium to the sector average, the risk-reward payoff is less appealing despite...

Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...

Ant Financial's attractive offer price of HK$3.28 for Bright Smart is appealing relative to peers, and is at a good premium to historical P/B and...