Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;</li>
<li>ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;</li>
<li>Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.


BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>Valuation detachment: Every conventional metric — P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF — the current price cannot be grounded in earnings. The premium is a bet on revenues that do not yet exist</li>
<li>Analysts prices Tesla on two entirely different frameworks — one anchored to cash flows, one to a platform yet to be built. Thus far, the platform camp is up.</li>
<li>Tesla's 5-year beta is ~2.3x. In 2022 the stock fell 65% while the S&amp;P lost 19%. When risk appetite retreats, TSLA tends to lead the move lower.</li>
</ul>


Valuation detachment: Every conventional metric — P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF — the current price cannot be grounded in earnings. The premium is a bet on revenues that do not yet exist
Analysts prices Tesla on two entirely different frameworks — one anchored to cash flows, one to a platform yet to be built. Thus far, the platform camp is up.
Tesla's 5-year beta is ~2.3x. In 2022 the stock fell 65% while the S&amp;P lost 19%. When risk appetite retreats, TSLA tends to lead the move lower.


TESLA (TSLA US): A Forensic Valuation of the World's Most Contested Stock

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Tesla, Inc. is no longer being judged as a simple electric-vehicle company.</li><li>Its stock now carries the weight of several future-facing stories at once: robotaxis, self-driving software, humanoid robots, energy storage, AI chips, Cybercab, Semi, and manufacturing scale.</li><li>But the timing of SpaceX’s massive IPO has added a new complication.</li></ul>

Tesla, Inc. is no longer being judged as a simple electric-vehicle company.Its stock now carries the weight of several future-facing stories at once: robotaxis, self-driving software, humanoid robots, energy storage, AI chips, Cybercab, Semi, and manufacturing scale.But the timing of SpaceX’s massive IPO has added a new complication.

Tesla: Is SpaceX Quietly Stealing Its Thunder?

<ul><li>Tesla, Inc. is putting fresh money behind one of its most important global battlegrounds.</li><li>The company plans to invest $250 million into its Berlin-Brandenburg factory to expand battery cell production, increase hiring, and support higher electric vehicle output in Europe.</li><li>On the surface, this looks like another factory upgrade.</li></ul>

Tesla, Inc. is putting fresh money behind one of its most important global battlegrounds.The company plans to invest $250 million into its Berlin-Brandenburg factory to expand battery cell production, increase hiring, and support higher electric vehicle output in Europe.On the surface, this looks like another factory upgrade.

Tesla’s $250 Million Europe Bet: Is Elon Musk’s Comeback Already Starting?

<ul><li>Tesla has quietly disclosed one of its most strategically important potential transactions in years: an agreement to acquire an undisclosed AI hardware company for up to $2 billion in Tesla common stock and equity awards.</li><li>The disclosure appeared in a single sentence in its Q1 2026 10-Q filing, with roughly $1.8 billion of the consideration tied to service conditions or performance milestones linked to successful deployment of the target’s technology.</li><li>The timing is notable.</li></ul>

Tesla has quietly disclosed one of its most strategically important potential transactions in years: an agreement to acquire an undisclosed AI hardware company for up to $2 billion in Tesla common stock and equity awards.The disclosure appeared in a single sentence in its Q1 2026 10-Q filing, with roughly $1.8 billion of the consideration tied to service conditions or performance milestones linked to successful deployment of the target’s technology.The timing is notable.

Tesla’s Mystery $2 Billion AI Hardware Deal Could Change Everything!

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

TESLA (TSLA US): A Forensic Valuation of the World's Most Contested Stock

Tesla's high valuation is detached from conventional metrics, betting on future revenues. However, all SHORT attempts have end up with a bloody...

Mo Aziz

Tesla: Is SpaceX Quietly Stealing Its Thunder?

Tesla, Inc. is no longer being judged as a simple electric-vehicle company. Its stock now carries the weight of several future-facing stories at...

Baptista Research

Tesla’s $250 Million Europe Bet: Is Elon Musk’s Comeback Already Starting?

Tesla, Inc. is putting fresh money behind one of its most important global battlegrounds. The company plans to invest $250 million into its...

Baptista Research

Tesla’s Mystery $2 Billion AI Hardware Deal Could Change Everything!

Tesla has quietly disclosed one of its most strategically important potential transactions in years: an agreement to acquire an undisclosed AI...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

TESLA (TSLA US): A Forensic Valuation of the World's Most Contested Stock

​Tesla's high valuation is detached from conventional metrics, betting on future revenues. However, all SHORT attempts have end up with a bloody...

Mo Aziz

Tesla: Is SpaceX Quietly Stealing Its Thunder?

Tesla, Inc. is no longer being judged as a simple electric-vehicle company. Its stock now carries the weight of several future-facing stories at...

Baptista Research

Tesla’s $250 Million Europe Bet: Is Elon Musk’s Comeback Already Starting?

Tesla, Inc. is putting fresh money behind one of its most important global battlegrounds. The company plans to invest $250 million into its...

Baptista Research

Tesla’s Mystery $2 Billion AI Hardware Deal Could Change Everything!

Tesla has quietly disclosed one of its most strategically important potential transactions in years: an agreement to acquire an undisclosed AI...

Baptista Research

Tesla's high valuation is detached from conventional metrics, betting on future revenues. However, all SHORT attempts have end up with a bloody...