TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla is a short. We know. You can't short it. But it is a short.</li>
<li>We continue to look for businesses that overearned and pulled in growth during the pandemic...some more recently identified examples: CHWY, ROKU</li>
<li>Spotify remains one of our top short ideas, bad business model, and now increasing competition from alternative listening services. </li>
</ul>


Tesla is a short. We know. You can't short it. But it is a short.
We continue to look for businesses that overearned and pulled in growth during the pandemic...some more recently identified examples: CHWY, ROKU
Spotify remains one of our top short ideas, bad business model, and now increasing competition from alternative listening services. 


Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Tesla's Q4 deliveries trounced market estimates thanks to a strong yearend push.</li>
<li>The outlook for revenue and profit just got higher. A lot higher.</li>
<li>Also true, Tesla's easy comps may be coming to an end.</li>
</ul>



Tesla's Q4 deliveries trounced market estimates thanks to a strong yearend push.
The outlook for revenue and profit just got higher. A lot higher.
Also true, Tesla's easy comps may be coming to an end.


Record Tesla Q4 Deliveries Boost Q4 Revenue & Profit Estimates

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korean EV battery unit play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy (LGENERGY KS)</a> has now opened its books to raise up to US$10.7bn, which will be the country's largest-ever IPO.</li>
<li>Shares are expected to be sold in a price range of ₩257,000 to ₩300,000 per share, in line with information released last month.</li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> is trading at its widest indicative discount to NAV in the past twelve months. </li>
</ul>


Korean EV battery unit play LG Energy (LGENERGY KS) has now opened its books to raise up to US$10.7bn, which will be the country's largest-ever IPO.
Shares are expected to be sold in a price range of ₩257,000 to ₩300,000 per share, in line with information released last month.
Separately, LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) is trading at its widest indicative discount to NAV in the past twelve months. 


LG Chem Trading Cheap As LG Energy Opens Its Books

<ul>
<li>Sure the Elon Musk Show is on all channels, but he and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> did have a very good year.</li>
<li>They also caught a lot of lucky breaks that won't last—which is overlooked by investors. </li>
<li>Next year will be different. And it starts in just two days.</li>
</ul>


Sure the Elon Musk Show is on all channels, but he and Tesla Motors (TSLA US) did have a very good year.
They also caught a lot of lucky breaks that won't last—which is overlooked by investors. 
Next year will be different. And it starts in just two days.


Look Away From Elon Musk To Gauge Tesla's Prospects—and Looming Risks

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We model GF3 production to reach 65+K, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a>  to delivery 45-50K onshore in December, China is to reach ~30+% global deliveries. </li>
<li>We model <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a>  production to reach ~11K in December, Q4 deliveries are likely miss, without "manipulation"; </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng (XPEV US)</a>  Zhaoqing factory production declines MoM, but Q4 deliveries are set to beat guidance due to stronger than expected G3i orders. </li>
</ul>


We model GF3 production to reach 65+K, and Tesla Motors (TSLA US)  to delivery 45-50K onshore in December, China is to reach ~30+% global deliveries. 
We model NIO Inc (NIO US)  production to reach ~11K in December, Q4 deliveries are likely miss, without "manipulation"; 

Xpeng (XPEV US)  Zhaoqing factory production declines MoM, but Q4 deliveries are set to beat guidance due to stronger than expected G3i orders. 


China NEV Week 49 2021 Update: TSLA, NIO, XPEV Production, Deliveries

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

1H22 Obex Research Short Portfolio

Our top short ideas for 2022: Tesla, Roku, Palantir, Spotify, Doordash, Expensify, AMC, and Teradata. Continue to like pandemic related...

Aaron Gabin

Record Tesla Q4 Deliveries Boost Q4 Revenue & Profit Estimates

Tesla's Q4 deliveries trounced market estimates thanks to a strong yearend push. Also true, Tesla's easy comps may be coming to an end.

Vicki Bryan

LG Chem Trading Cheap As LG Energy Opens Its Books

Potentially go outright long or, until LG Energy lists, hedge against a basket of domestic chemical peers, all of whom have outperformed LG Chem...

David Blennerhassett

Look Away From Elon Musk To Gauge Tesla's Prospects—and Looming Risks

Sure the Elon Show is on all channels, but he and Tesla did have a very good year. They also caught a lot of lucky breaks that won't last—which is...

Vicki Bryan

China NEV Week 49 2021 Update: TSLA, NIO, XPEV Production, Deliveries

Weekly update on TSLA, NIO and XPEV production and delivery data in China: TSLA China likely exceed 92K, XPEV 38K, NIO 23-24K in Q4, respectively.

JL Warren Capital

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